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Lithuania W v Sweden W

Lithuania W

0–5Full time

Sweden W

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:01

Lithuania W 0–5 Sweden W SWEDEN W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sweden W win~~77%

~~The market said~~90%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.082

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.017

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sweden W win at 77%.
68′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sweden W · On: Amanda Ilestedt · Off: Nathalie Bjorn Corrected
68′⚽ GOAL · 57' Lithuania W 0–3 Sweden W · Felicia Schröder (assist Anna·Anvegard)
68′⚽ GOAL · 62' Lithuania W 0–3 Sweden W · Felicia Schröder (assist Matilda Vinberg)
68′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sweden W · On: Filippa Angeldal · Off: Smilla Holmberg Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sweden W · On: Stina Blackstenius · Off: Evelyn Ijeh Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Sweden W · On: Monica Jusu Bah · Off: Matilda Vinberg Corrected
68′SECOND HALF Lithuania W 0–3 Sweden W
79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Lithuania W · On: Marija·Galkina · Off: Monika Grikšaitė Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Lithuania W · On: Viltė Švarcaitė · Off: Loreta Rogačiova Corrected
79′⚽ GOAL · 74' Lithuania W 0–4 Sweden W · Stina Blackstenius (assist Monica Jusu Bah)
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sweden W · On: Rusul Rosa Kafaji · Off: Anna·Anvegard Corrected
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Lithuania W 0–5 Sweden W · Stina Blackstenius
81′⚽ GOAL · 82' Lithuania W 0–5 Sweden W · Amanda Ilestedt
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Lithuania W · On: Ugnė Jonelytė · Off: Ugnė Lazdauskaitė Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Lithuania W · On: J. Blaževičiūtė · Off: Rimantė Jonušaitė Corrected
FTFULL TIME Lithuania W 0–5 Sweden W
FTLithuania W 0–5 Sweden W · Sweden W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Lithuania W win10%

Draw13%

Sweden W win77%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:05

Referee · Deborah Anex

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Lithuania W

5-4-1

22 M. Seskute

23 L. Rogaciova

3 L. Kubiliute

14 M. Liuzinaite

17 A. Bernotaite

6 T. Romanovskaja

5 M. Griksaite

20 L. Vaitukaityte

4 A. Mikutaite

7 U. Lazdauskaite

9 R. Jonusaite

Coach · T. Ražanauskas

Substitutes

12 · D. Mikuckyte

1 · A. Bikute

19 · G. Valikoniene

13 · A. Jokubaityte

15 · J. Blazevicute

11 · M. Galkina

2 · V. Svarcaite

21 · U. Jonelyte

8 · E. Supelyte

10 · M. Prosceviciute

Sweden W

4-4-2

12 J. Falk

2 S. Holmberg

14 N. Bjorn

18 B. Andersson

5 A. Sandberg

7 M. Vinberg

4 H. Lundkvist

15 J. Zigiotti Olme

19 A. Anvegard

17 F. Schroder

8 E. Ijeh

Coach · Johanna Almgren

Substitutes

1 · Z. Musovic

21 · M. Edrud

3 · A. Nilden

13 · A. Ilestedt

23 · A. Bergstrom

22 · S. Reidy

16 · F. Angeldal

20 · H. Bennison

10 · R. Kafaji

6 · M. Jusu Bah

11 · S. Blackstenius

9 · B. Olsson

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Lithuania W

5-4-1

22 M. Seskute

23 L. Rogaciova

3 L. Kubiliute

14 M. Liuzinaite

17 A. Bernotaite

6 T. Romanovskaja

5 M. Griksaite

20 L. Vaitukaityte

4 A. Mikutaite

7 U. Lazdauskaite

9 R. Jonusaite

Coach · T. Ražanauskas

Substitutes

12 · D. Mikuckyte

1 · A. Bikute

19 · G. Valikoniene

13 · A. Jokubaityte

15 · J. Blazevicute

11 · M. Galkina

2 · V. Svarcaite

21 · U. Jonelyte

8 · E. Supelyte

10 · M. Prosceviciute

Sweden W

4-4-2

12 J. Falk

2 S. Holmberg

14 N. Bjorn

18 B. Andersson

5 A. Sandberg

7 M. Vinberg

4 H. Lundkvist

15 J. Zigiotti Olme

19 A. Anvegard

17 F. Schroder

8 E. Ijeh

Coach · Johanna Almgren

Substitutes

1 · Z. Musovic

21 · M. Edrud

3 · A. Nilden

13 · A. Ilestedt

23 · A. Bergstrom

22 · S. Reidy

16 · F. Angeldal

20 · H. Bennison

10 · R. Kafaji

6 · M. Jusu Bah

11 · S. Blackstenius

9 · B. Olsson

Our number · sweden w winPublished 9 Oct 17:06

77% The market90%

Us77%

~~Market~~90%

We make Sweden W a 77% chance to win. The market has them at 90%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.6–2.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sweden w win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lithuania W win	10%	3%	+7
Draw	13%	8%	+6
Sweden W win	77%	90%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	53%	87%	−34
Both teams to score	37%	36%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	94%	−19
Over 3.5 goals	31%	75%	−45
Lithuania W or draw	23%	10%	+13
Lithuania W clean sheet	11%	–	–
Sweden W clean sheet	56%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.4%

0123450 4.3 15.4 15.0 11.1 6.1 2.71 5.4 6.0 8.7 6.4 3.6 2 2.3 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lithuania W down, Sweden W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every women's national side on one scale from 3,330 senior internationals up to 9 Oct 2026 - qualifiers, Nations Leagues, finals and friendlies - weighting recent matches more.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Lithuania W are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

0.58 goals for Lithuania W, 2.21 for Sweden W. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 17:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2011

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

LITHUANIA W

WDWLDW6–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–0

SWEDEN W

WDLWLD1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary W	6	+19	16
2	Germany W	6	+17	16
3	Switzerland W	6	+13	16
4	New Zealand W	5	+25	15
5	Spain W	6	+18	15
6	Kosovo W	6	+17	15
7	Croatia W	6	+15	15
8	Portugal W	6	+13	15
9	Finland W	6	+9	15
10	England W	6	+8	15
11	Scotland W	6	+22	14
12	Belgium W	6	+21	14
13	Wales W	6	+12	14
14	Denmark W	6	+7	14
15	France W	6	+6	13
16	Turkey W	6	+6	13
17	Papua New Guinea W	5	+10	12
18	Greece W	4	+7	12
19	Azerbaijan W	6	+6	12
20	American Samoa W	6	+5	12
21	Norway W	6	+2	12
22	Bosnia-Herzegovina W	6	+18	11
23	Czech Republic W	6	+10	11
24	Lithuania W	6	+8	11
25	Estonia W	6	+5	11
26	Netherlands W	6	+3	11
27	Romania W	4	+8	10
28	Belarus W	4	+9	9
29	Italy W	6	+8	9
30	Republic of Ireland W	6	0	9
31	Sweden W	6	0	8
32	Kazakhstan W	4	+3	7
33	Albania W	6	−5	7
34	Northern Ireland W	6	+1	6
35	Fiji W	4	0	6
36	Bulgaria W	6	−1	6
37	Faroe Islands W	4	−1	6
38	Slovakia W	6	−9	6
39	Iceland W	6	−9	6
40	Israel W	6	−10	6
41	North Macedonia W	6	−12	6
42	Moldova W	4	+1	5
43	Austria W	6	−6	4
44	Cook Islands W	2	−3	3
45	New Caledonia W	3	−8	3
46	Samoa W	3	−8	3
47	Slovenia W	6	−13	3
48	Poland W	6	−9	1
49	Cyprus W	4	−9	1
50	Armenia W	4	−12	1
51	Andorra W	6	−13	1
52	Serbia W	6	−15	1
53	Montenegro W	6	−17	1
54	Tahiti W	1	−1	0
55	Tonga W	1	−3	0
56	Georgia W	4	−6	0
57	Vanuatu W	3	−7	0
58	Solomon Islands W	3	−10	0
59	Latvia W	6	−13	0
60	Ukraine W	6	−17	0
61	Malta W	6	−20	0
62	Liechtenstein W	6	−31	0
63	Gibraltar W	6	−31	0
64	Luxembourg W	6	−33	0