Home › Football › World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe › Kazakhstan W v Republic of Ireland W

Kazakhstan W v Republic of Ireland W

Kazakhstan W

0–8Full time

Republic of Ireland W

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · FRI 9 OCT · Astana Arena

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 14:32

Kazakhstan W 0–8 Republic of Ireland W REPUBLIC OF IRELAND W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Republic of Ireland W win~~45%

~~The market said~~89%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.464

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.021

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kazakhstan W win33%

Draw23%

Republic of Ireland W win45%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 12:00

Venue · Astana Arena

Referee · Karoline Marie Jensen

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Kazakhstan W

4-3-3

12 N. Ismailova

18 A. Burova

9 B. Nurusheva

15 Y. Myasnikova

23 A. Vlasova

21 A. Turlybekova

6 A. Nizamutdinova

17 K. Zhumabaikyzy

14 Y. Babshuk

10 A. Bibossynova

8 A. Gaistenova

Coach · M. Kembilov

Substitutes

22 · V. Zeinali

1 · A. Portnova

2 · K. Shustova

3 · A. Nabokova

5 · T. Rakhatzhan

7 · L. Sadykova

4 · A. Tyan

20 · A. Mamyrova

16 · P. Osipova

19 · F. Satygalieva

13 · V. Popova

11 · K. Norbaeva

Republic of Ireland W

3-4-1-2

1 C. Brosnan

12 A. Patten

4 C. Hayes

2 J. Stapleton

5 A. Mannion

17 J. Finn

6 M. Connolly

3 C. Mustaki

21 E. Murphy

18 K. Carusa

19 A. Larkin

Coach · Carla Ward

Substitutes

16 · G. Moloney

23 · S. Whitehouse

13 · H. Nolan

22 · T. Toland

14 · S. Hopcroft

15 · L. Quinn

8 · A. Clancy

20 · L. Kiernan

9 · A. Barrett

7 · H. Payne

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kazakhstan W

4-3-3

12 N. Ismailova

18 A. Burova

9 B. Nurusheva

15 Y. Myasnikova

23 A. Vlasova

21 A. Turlybekova

6 A. Nizamutdinova

17 K. Zhumabaikyzy

14 Y. Babshuk

10 A. Bibossynova

8 A. Gaistenova

Coach · M. Kembilov

Substitutes

22 · V. Zeinali

1 · A. Portnova

2 · K. Shustova

3 · A. Nabokova

5 · T. Rakhatzhan

7 · L. Sadykova

4 · A. Tyan

20 · A. Mamyrova

16 · P. Osipova

19 · F. Satygalieva

13 · V. Popova

11 · K. Norbaeva

Republic of Ireland W

3-4-1-2

1 C. Brosnan

12 A. Patten

4 C. Hayes

2 J. Stapleton

5 A. Mannion

17 J. Finn

6 M. Connolly

3 C. Mustaki

21 E. Murphy

18 K. Carusa

19 A. Larkin

Coach · Carla Ward

Substitutes

16 · G. Moloney

23 · S. Whitehouse

13 · H. Nolan

22 · T. Toland

14 · S. Hopcroft

15 · L. Quinn

8 · A. Clancy

20 · L. Kiernan

9 · A. Barrett

7 · H. Payne

Our number · republic of ireland w winPublished 9 Oct 12:02

45% The market89%

Us45%

~~Market~~89%

We make Republic of Ireland W a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 89%. We are 44 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · republic of ireland w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 89% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kazakhstan W win	33%	3%	+30
Draw	23%	8%	+14
Republic of Ireland W win	45%	89%	−44
Over 2.5 goals	38%	78%	−40
Both teams to score	41%	41%	0
Over 1.5 goals	62%	90%	−28
Over 3.5 goals	18%	60%	−42
Kazakhstan W or draw	55%	11%	+44
Kazakhstan W clean sheet	29%	–	–
Republic of Ireland W clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 16.4%

0123450 7.8 16.4 8.2 3.4 1 13.8 10.2 8.1 3.3 2 5.3 6.6 4.0 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kazakhstan W down, Republic of Ireland W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every women's national side on one scale from 3,330 senior internationals up to 9 Oct 2026 - qualifiers, Nations Leagues, finals and friendlies - weighting recent matches more.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Kazakhstan W are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Kazakhstan W, 1.23 for Republic of Ireland W. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 11:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2011

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

KAZAKHSTAN W

LLWLWD1–2 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND W

LLWWWL1–2 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 0–1

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary W	6	+19	16
2	Germany W	6	+17	16
3	Switzerland W	6	+13	16
4	New Zealand W	5	+25	15
5	Spain W	6	+18	15
6	Kosovo W	6	+17	15
7	Croatia W	6	+15	15
8	Portugal W	6	+13	15
9	Finland W	6	+9	15
10	England W	6	+8	15
11	Scotland W	6	+22	14
12	Belgium W	6	+21	14
13	Wales W	6	+12	14
14	Denmark W	6	+7	14
15	France W	6	+6	13
16	Turkey W	6	+6	13
17	Papua New Guinea W	5	+10	12
18	Greece W	4	+7	12
19	Azerbaijan W	6	+6	12
20	American Samoa W	6	+5	12
21	Norway W	6	+2	12
22	Bosnia-Herzegovina W	6	+18	11
23	Czech Republic W	6	+10	11
24	Lithuania W	6	+8	11
25	Estonia W	6	+5	11
26	Netherlands W	6	+3	11
27	Romania W	4	+8	10
28	Belarus W	4	+9	9
29	Italy W	6	+8	9
30	Republic of Ireland W	6	0	9
31	Sweden W	6	0	8
32	Kazakhstan W	4	+3	7
33	Albania W	6	−5	7
34	Northern Ireland W	6	+1	6
35	Fiji W	4	0	6
36	Bulgaria W	6	−1	6
37	Faroe Islands W	4	−1	6
38	Slovakia W	6	−9	6
39	Iceland W	6	−9	6
40	Israel W	6	−10	6
41	North Macedonia W	6	−12	6
42	Moldova W	4	+1	5
43	Austria W	6	−6	4
44	Cook Islands W	2	−3	3
45	New Caledonia W	3	−8	3
46	Samoa W	3	−8	3
47	Slovenia W	6	−13	3
48	Poland W	6	−9	1
49	Cyprus W	4	−9	1
50	Armenia W	4	−12	1
51	Andorra W	6	−13	1
52	Serbia W	6	−15	1
53	Montenegro W	6	−17	1
54	Tahiti W	1	−1	0
55	Tonga W	1	−3	0
56	Georgia W	4	−6	0
57	Vanuatu W	3	−7	0
58	Solomon Islands W	3	−10	0
59	Latvia W	6	−13	0
60	Ukraine W	6	−17	0
61	Malta W	6	−20	0
62	Liechtenstein W	6	−31	0
63	Gibraltar W	6	−31	0
64	Luxembourg W	6	−33	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Kazakhstan W

Republic of Ireland W

Match statistics

Line-ups

Kazakhstan W

Republic of Ireland W

Head to head

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

The table