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Italy W v Belarus W

Italy W
1–1Full time
Belarus W

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · TUE 13 OCT · Stadio Artemio Franchi

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 19:55
Italy W 1–1 Belarus W ITALY W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Italy W win54%
The market said92%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.910
The market’s Brier score1.725

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Italy W win at 54%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Italy W was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–29–20
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Italy W v Belarus W
  4. 9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Italy W 1–0 Belarus W
  5. 9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Italy W 1–0 Belarus W · Barbara Bonansea
  6. 12′Italy W ahead on 9′ through Barbara Bonansea. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–15–5
  7. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Italy W win: 54% at kick-off, 81% now
  8. 15′We published Italy W at 54%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–5
  9. 34′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 82–15–3
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Italy W 1–0 Belarus W
  11. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Belarus W · On: D. Protasyuk · Off: Melana Surovtseva Corrected
  12. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Belarus W · On: Karina Olkhovik · Off: Anastasia kovaleva Corrected
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Italy W 1–0 Belarus W
  14. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Italy W win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
  15. 55′We published Italy W at 54%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  16. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Italy W · On: Giulia Dragoni · Off: Giada Greggi Corrected
  17. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Italy W · On: Elisa Polli · Off: Cristiana Girelli Corrected
  18. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Italy W · On: Michela Cambiaghi · Off: Barbara Bonansea Corrected
  19. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Belarus W · On: Daria gorshkova · Off: Arina Sitnikova Corrected
  20. 73′We published Italy W at 54%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  21. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Italy W 1–1 Belarus W · Barbara Bonansea
  22. 76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Italy W 1–1 Belarus W · Karina Olkhovik
  23. 77′Karina Olkhovik scores for Belarus W on 75′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 16–76–8
  24. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Italy W win: 54% at kick-off, 16% now
  25. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Italy W win 16%)
  26. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Italy W · On: Benedetta Glionna · Off: Sofia Cantore Corrected
  27. 79′We said Italy W at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–79–7
  28. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Italy W win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
  29. 81′17.0 shots for Italy W, 5.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 12–82–6
  30. 83′We said Italy W at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–5
  31. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Italy W · On: Martina Rosucci · Off: Angelica Soffia Corrected
  32. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Belarus W · On: Anna Sinyavskaya · Off: Anastasia Shlapakova Corrected
  33. 90′We said Italy W at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
  34. 90′23.0 shots for Italy W, 5.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 4–94–2
  35. 90′25.0 shots for Italy W, 6.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 4–94–2
  36. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Italy W win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
  37. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 95' Belarus W · On: zarina kapustina · Off: Valeria Bogdan Corrected
  38. FTFULL TIME Italy W 1–1 Belarus W
  39. FTItaly W 1–1 Belarus W · Italy W win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –
2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –
3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –
The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off

Italy W win54%
Draw24%
Belarus W win22%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 17:15

VenueStadio Artemio Franchi

RefereeAbigail Byrne

Line-ups

Italy W

4-3-3

Belarus W

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Italy W

Belarus W

4Days since last match4
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
19Italy W7+1012
31Belarus W5+79

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Italy W

4-3-3

1 R. Baldi

3 L. Di Guglielmo

19 M. Lenzini

2 A. Soffia

17 L. Boattin

8 E. Severini

18 A. Caruso

20 G. Greggi

7 S. Cantore

10 C. Girelli

11 B. Bonansea

Coach · Andrea Soncin

Substitutes

22 · F. Durante

12 · A. Gilardi

13 · E. Oliviero

5 · F. D'Auria

6 · M. Giugliano

16 · G. Dragoni

14 · M. Rosucci

4 · E. Schatzer

9 · M. Piemonte

21 · M. Cambiaghi

15 · B. Glionna

23 · E. Polli

Belarus W

5-4-1

1 N. Voskobovich

11 Y. Slesarchik

2 V. Kazakevich

9 A. Kozyupa

17 A. Sitnikava

21 V. Bogdan

4 A. Shlapakova

7 V. Belaya

3 A. Linnik

19 A. Kovaleva

16 M. Surovtseva

Coach · V. Shindikov

Substitutes

22 · M. Svidunovich

12 · E. Sevko

20 · A. Cherlenok

5 · D. Gorshkova

23 · N. Voskobovich

8 · Z. Kapustina

10 · C. Tikhonovodova

15 · D. Protasyuk

14 · K. Olkhovik

18 · V. Valyuk

6 · A. Sinyavskaya

13 · D. Maniukova

Our number · italy w winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off
54% The market92%
Us54%
Market92%

We make Italy W a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 92%. We are 38 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published
40%50%60%70%80%90%100% 9 OCT 06:2313 OCT 15:06
Our probability · italy w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 92% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Italy W win54%92%−38
Draw24%6%+18
Belarus W win22%2%+20
Over 2.5 goals33%78%−45
Both teams to score35%20%+15
Over 1.5 goals58%91%−33
Over 3.5 goals15%60%−46
Italy W or draw78%98%−20
Italy W clean sheet50%––
Belarus W clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 19.6%
0123450 11.1 11.3 3.2 1 19.6 10.1 4.3 2 11.6 8.1 2.8 3 5.1 3.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Italy W down, Belarus W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsBEL 0–2 ITA

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

ITALY W

DWDWDW1–1 · 6–0 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 2–0

BELARUS W

LWWLWL0–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 6–0 · 0–2

The table

2027
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Switzerland W7+1719
2Portugal W7+1718
3Finland W7+1118
4England W7+1018
5Scotland W7+2417
6Belgium W7+2217
7Wales W7+1317
8Germany W6+1716
9Hungary W7+1116
10New Zealand W5+2515
11Spain W6+1815
12Kosovo W7+1615
13Croatia W7+1115
14Norway W7+415
15Netherlands W7+1114
16Denmark W6+714
17Turkey W7+614
18France W6+613
19Italy W7+1012
20Papua New Guinea W5+1012
21Republic of Ireland W7+812
22Azerbaijan W6+612
23Greece W5+512
24American Samoa W6+512
25Bosnia-Herzegovina W6+1811
26Czechia W7+811
27Estonia W6+511
28Sweden W7+511
29Lithuania W7+311
30Romania W5+610
31Belarus W5+79
32Iceland W7−59
33Austria W7−57
34Kazakhstan W5−57
35Albania W7−67
36Fiji W406
37Bulgaria W6−16
38Faroe Islands W4−16
39Northern Ireland W7−36
40Slovakia W7−116
41North Macedonia W6−126
42Israel W7−146
43Moldova W4+15
44Slovenia W7−134
45Cook Islands W2−33
46New Caledonia W3−83
47Samoa W3−83
48Ukraine W7−153
49Cyprus W4−91
50Poland W7−101
51Armenia W4−121
52Andorra W6−131
53Montenegro W6−171
54Serbia W7−171
55Tahiti W1−10
56Tonga W1−30
57Georgia W4−60
58Vanuatu W3−70
59Solomon Islands W3−100
60Latvia W6−130
61Malta W6−200
62Liechtenstein W6−310
63Gibraltar W6−310
64Luxembourg W6−330

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.