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Iceland W v Croatia W

Iceland W
5–0Full time
Croatia W

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 21:11
Iceland W 5–0 Croatia W ICELAND W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Iceland W win69%
The market said85%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.148
The market’s Brier score0.035

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Iceland W win at 69%.
  2. 0′Much as we predicted: Iceland W was 69% before kick-off and our model makes it 67% now. 0–0 · 67–21–12
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Iceland W v Croatia W
  4. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Iceland W win: 69% at kick-off, 59% now
  5. 31′We said Iceland W at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 57%. 0–0 · 57–30–13
  6. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Iceland W 1–0 Croatia W
  7. 34′⚽ GOAL · 35' Iceland W 1–0 Croatia W
  8. 36′Hlin·Eiriksdottir scores for Iceland W on 34′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 87–11–2
  9. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Iceland W win: 69% at kick-off, 87% now
  10. 38′Hlin·Eiriksdottir scores for Iceland W on 35′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 87–11–2
  11. 39′We published Iceland W at 69%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  12. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Iceland W 2–0 Croatia W · Hlin·Eiriksdottir
  13. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Iceland W win: 69% at kick-off, 98% now
  14. 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Iceland W 2–0 Croatia W · Marin ida hermannsdottir
  15. 41′40′ and it is 2–0: Marin ida hermannsdottir on the scoresheet for Iceland W. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Iceland W 2–0 Croatia W
  17. 45′SECOND HALF Iceland W 2–0 Croatia W
  18. 55′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 2–0 · 98–1–0
  19. 56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Iceland W 2–0 Croatia W · katla tryggvadottir
  20. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Croatia W · On: tea vracevic · Off: Helena Spajic Corrected
  21. 57′Iceland W ahead on 55′ through katla tryggvadottir. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  22. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Iceland W win: 69% at kick-off, 99% now
  23. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Croatia W · On: Erika Vrban Zschuppe · Off: Martina Cavar Corrected
  24. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Croatia W · On: Ana Markovic · Off: B. Živković Corrected
  25. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Iceland W · On: Emilía Kiær Ásgeirsdóttir · Off: katla tryggvadottir Corrected
  26. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Iceland W · On: Birta Georgsdóttir · Off: Marin ida hermannsdottir Corrected
  27. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Croatia W · On: A. Bakalar · Off: Tea Krznarić Corrected
  28. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Iceland W · On: Diljá Ýr Zomers · Off: Hlin·Eiriksdottir Corrected
  29. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 75' K. Kurkutović · Croatia W
  30. 77′We published Iceland W at 69%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  31. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Iceland W 3–0 Croatia W · katla tryggvadottir
  32. 79′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  33. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Iceland W · On: Emelía Óskarsdóttir · Off: Sveindis Jane Jonsdottir Corrected
  34. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Iceland W · On: L. van Bemmel · Off: A. Eiríksdóttir
  35. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Iceland W 4–0 Croatia W · katla tryggvadottir
  36. 88′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  37. 90′Diljá Ýr Zomers scores for Iceland W on 87′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  38. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Iceland W 4–0 Croatia W · Diljá Ýr Zomers
  39. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Iceland W 5–0 Croatia W · Diljá Ýr Zomers
  40. FTFULL TIME Iceland W 5–0 Croatia W
  41. FTIceland W 5–0 Croatia W · Iceland W win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –
2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –
3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –
The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 17:57 · locked at kick-off

Iceland W win69%
Draw17%
Croatia W win14%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 18:30

RefereeOlatz Rivera Olmedo

Line-ups

Iceland W

4-3-3

Croatia W

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Iceland W

Croatia W

4Days since last match4
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
13Croatia W7+1115
32Iceland W7−59

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Iceland W

4-3-3

13 F. Birkisdottir

2 A. Eiriksdottir

4 G. Viggosdottir

18 G. Arnardottir

21 H. Halldorsdottir

7 K. Tryggvadottir

8 A. Johannsdottir

10 K. Vilhjalmsdottir

23 S. Jonsdottir

17 I. Hermannsdottir

14 H. Eiriksdottir

Coach · Thorsteinn Halldorsson

Substitutes

1 · C. Runarsdottir

12 · T. Ivarsdottir

3 · E. Oskarsdottir

5 · E. Asgeirsdottir

6 · H. Antonsdottir

9 · D. Zomers

11 · B. Georgsdottir

15 · M. Gros

16 · L. van Bemmel

19 · A. Halldorsdottir

20 · T. K. Palmadottir

22 · J. Kujundzic

Croatia W

5-3-2

1 D. Bacic

2 L. Orkic

16 L. Vunic

4 L. Balog

3 A. Jelencic

20 B. Zivkovic

13 H. Spajic

5 T. Krznaric

9 J. Canjevac

11 K. Kurkutovic

18 M. Cavar

Coach · N. Gračan

Substitutes

12 · N. Radolovic

23 · C. Sesjak

6 · T. Vracevic

7 · P. Pezelj

8 · A. Bakalar

10 · A. Guvo

14 · A. Dulcic

15 · L. Kukavica

17 · V. Akrap

19 · L. Vlastelica

21 · A. Markovic

22 · E. Zschuppe

Our number · iceland w winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 17:57 · locked at kick-off
69% The market85%
Us69%
Market85%

We make Iceland W a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 85%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published
50%60%70%80%90%100% 9 OCT 06:2313 OCT 16:07
Our probability · iceland w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 69% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 85% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Iceland W win69%85%−16
Draw17%11%+6
Croatia W win14%4%+10
Over 2.5 goals49%60%−11
Both teams to score41%28%+13
Over 1.5 goals73%80%−8
Over 3.5 goals27%40%−12
Iceland W or draw86%96%−10
Iceland W clean sheet50%––
Croatia W clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.4%
0123450 5.4 6.6 1 15.4 8.0 3.4 2 13.5 9.4 3.3 3 8.8 6.1 2.1 4 4.3 3.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Iceland W down, Croatia W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsCRO 0–4 ICE

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

ICELAND W

LWLWLW0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–6 · 4–0

CROATIA W

LWWWWL0–1 · 1–0 · 9–0 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 0–4

The table

2027
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Switzerland W7+1719
2Portugal W7+1718
3Finland W7+1118
4England W7+1018
5Scotland W7+2417
6Belgium W7+2217
7Wales W7+1317
8Germany W6+1716
9Hungary W7+1116
10New Zealand W5+2515
11Spain W6+1815
12Kosovo W7+1615
13Croatia W7+1115
14Norway W7+415
15Netherlands W7+1114
16Denmark W6+714
17Turkey W7+614
18France W6+613
19Italy W7+1012
20Papua New Guinea W5+1012
21Republic of Ireland W7+812
22Azerbaijan W6+612
23Greece W5+512
24American Samoa W6+512
25Bosnia-Herzegovina W6+1811
26Czechia W7+811
27Estonia W6+511
28Sweden W7+511
29Lithuania W7+311
30Romania W5+610
31Belarus W5+79
32Iceland W7−59
33Austria W7−57
34Kazakhstan W5−57
35Albania W7−67
36Fiji W406
37Bulgaria W6−16
38Faroe Islands W4−16
39Northern Ireland W7−36
40Slovakia W7−116
41North Macedonia W6−126
42Israel W7−146
43Moldova W4+15
44Slovenia W7−134
45Cook Islands W2−33
46New Caledonia W3−83
47Samoa W3−83
48Ukraine W7−153
49Cyprus W4−91
50Poland W7−101
51Armenia W4−121
52Andorra W6−131
53Montenegro W6−171
54Serbia W7−171
55Tahiti W1−10
56Tonga W1−30
57Georgia W4−60
58Vanuatu W3−70
59Solomon Islands W3−100
60Latvia W6−130
61Malta W6−200
62Liechtenstein W6−310
63Gibraltar W6−310
64Luxembourg W6−330

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.