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Greece W v England W

Greece W

1–3Full time

England W

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · FRI 9 OCT · Pankritio Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:01

Greece W 1–3 England W ENGLAND W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said England W win~~79%

~~The market said~~90%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.070

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.016

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said England W win at 79%.
45′⚽ GOAL · 39' Greece W 0–1 England W · Georgia Stanway (assist Alessia Russo)
45′HALF-TIME Greece W 0–1 England W
45′SECOND HALF Greece W 0–1 England W
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' England W · On: Bethany Mead · Off: Laura Blindkilde Brown Corrected
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Greece W 0–2 England W · Georgia Stanway
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Greece W 0–2 England W · Maya Le Tissier
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Greece W 0–3 England W · Maya Le Tissier
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Greece W 0–3 England W · Alessia Russo
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Greece W · On: E. Saich · Off: E. Brame
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Greece W · On: Georgía Chalatsogiánni · Off: Athanasia Moraitou Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' England W · On: Jessica Park · Off: Alessia Russo Corrected
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Greece W 1–3 England W · Alessia Russo
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Greece W 1–3 England W · Kallisti Konstantina Brouksair
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Greece W · On: Sofia Kongouli · Off: E. Drakogiannaki Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' England W · On: Érica Meg Parkinson · Off: Lauren James Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Greece W · On: Grigoria Pouliou · Off: Ioanna Papatheodorou Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Greece W · On: Ilektra Djurdjevic · Off: Veatriki Sarri Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' England W · On: Grace Fisk · Off: Esme Morgan Corrected
FTFULL TIME Greece W 1–3 England W
FTGreece W 1–3 England W · England W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Greece W win9%

Draw12%

England W win79%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:30

Venue · Pankritio Stadium

Referee · Molinaro·Martina

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Greece W

4-3-3

13 R. Petaloti

15 V. Giannaka

4 M. Gkouni Papaioannou

9 E. Markou

22 M. Paterna

8 E. Drakogiannaki

17 A. Moraitou

18 E. Brame

10 V. Sarri

7 I. Papatheodorou

23 K. K. Brouksair

Coach · Alexandros Katikaridis

Substitutes

1 · D. Giannakouli

12 · S. Katergiannaki

19 · G. Pouliou

3 · M. Theodoraki

20 · G. Tsela

5 · M. Kapnisi

2 · S. Ntarzanou

6 · G. Chalatsogianni

21 · S. Kongouli

11 · I. Tzourtzevits

14 · E. Saich

England W

4-3-3

1 H. Hampton

2 M. Le Tissier

3 L. Williamson

4 E. Morgan

5 A. Greenwood

6 K. Walsh

8 G. Stanway

10 L. James

7 L. Blindkilde

9 A. Russo

11 L. Hemp

Coach · Sarina Wiegman

Substitutes

21 · A. Moorhouse

13 · K. Keating

16 · G. Fisk

15 · J. Carter

12 · N. Charles

23 · E. Toone

22 · F. Godfrey

14 · A. Potter

20 · E. Parkinson

17 · J. Park

19 · B. Mead

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Greece W

4-3-3

13 R. Petaloti

15 V. Giannaka

4 M. Gkouni Papaioannou

9 E. Markou

22 M. Paterna

8 E. Drakogiannaki

17 A. Moraitou

18 E. Brame

10 V. Sarri

7 I. Papatheodorou

23 K. K. Brouksair

Coach · Alexandros Katikaridis

Substitutes

1 · D. Giannakouli

12 · S. Katergiannaki

19 · G. Pouliou

3 · M. Theodoraki

20 · G. Tsela

5 · M. Kapnisi

2 · S. Ntarzanou

6 · G. Chalatsogianni

21 · S. Kongouli

11 · I. Tzourtzevits

14 · E. Saich

England W

4-3-3

1 H. Hampton

2 M. Le Tissier

3 L. Williamson

4 E. Morgan

5 A. Greenwood

6 K. Walsh

8 G. Stanway

10 L. James

7 L. Blindkilde

9 A. Russo

11 L. Hemp

Coach · Sarina Wiegman

Substitutes

21 · A. Moorhouse

13 · K. Keating

16 · G. Fisk

15 · J. Carter

12 · N. Charles

23 · E. Toone

22 · F. Godfrey

14 · A. Potter

20 · E. Parkinson

17 · J. Park

19 · B. Mead

Our number · england w winPublished 9 Oct 17:35

79% The market90%

Us79%

~~Market~~90%

We make England W a 79% chance to win. The market has them at 90%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.6–2.4.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Greece W win	9%	3%	+7
Draw	12%	7%	+5
England W win	79%	90%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	58%	87%	−30
Both teams to score	40%	53%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	78%	95%	−17
Over 3.5 goals	35%	78%	−43
Greece W or draw	21%	10%	+12
Greece W clean sheet	9%	–	–
England W clean sheet	54%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 14.2%

0123450 3.3 13.6 14.2 11.3 6.7 3.21 4.8 5.6 8.7 6.9 4.1 2 2.2 2.7 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Greece W down, England W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every women's national side on one scale from 3,330 senior internationals up to 9 Oct 2026 - qualifiers, Nations Leagues, finals and friendlies - weighting recent matches more.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Greece W are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

0.61 goals for Greece W, 2.38 for England W. Most likely score 0–2.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 17:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2011

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

GREECE W

DWWWDW1–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 3–2

ENGLAND W

WWWWLW6–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 3–0

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary W	6	+19	16
2	Germany W	6	+17	16
3	Switzerland W	6	+13	16
4	New Zealand W	5	+25	15
5	Spain W	6	+18	15
6	Kosovo W	6	+17	15
7	Croatia W	6	+15	15
8	Portugal W	6	+13	15
9	Finland W	6	+9	15
10	England W	6	+8	15
11	Scotland W	6	+22	14
12	Belgium W	6	+21	14
13	Wales W	6	+12	14
14	Denmark W	6	+7	14
15	France W	6	+6	13
16	Turkey W	6	+6	13
17	Papua New Guinea W	5	+10	12
18	Greece W	4	+7	12
19	Azerbaijan W	6	+6	12
20	American Samoa W	6	+5	12
21	Norway W	6	+2	12
22	Bosnia-Herzegovina W	6	+18	11
23	Czech Republic W	6	+10	11
24	Lithuania W	6	+8	11
25	Estonia W	6	+5	11
26	Netherlands W	6	+3	11
27	Romania W	4	+8	10
28	Belarus W	4	+9	9
29	Italy W	6	+8	9
30	Republic of Ireland W	6	0	9
31	Sweden W	6	0	8
32	Kazakhstan W	4	+3	7
33	Albania W	6	−5	7
34	Northern Ireland W	6	+1	6
35	Fiji W	4	0	6
36	Bulgaria W	6	−1	6
37	Faroe Islands W	4	−1	6
38	Slovakia W	6	−9	6
39	Iceland W	6	−9	6
40	Israel W	6	−10	6
41	North Macedonia W	6	−12	6
42	Moldova W	4	+1	5
43	Austria W	6	−6	4
44	Cook Islands W	2	−3	3
45	New Caledonia W	3	−8	3
46	Samoa W	3	−8	3
47	Slovenia W	6	−13	3
48	Poland W	6	−9	1
49	Cyprus W	4	−9	1
50	Armenia W	4	−12	1
51	Andorra W	6	−13	1
52	Serbia W	6	−15	1
53	Montenegro W	6	−17	1
54	Tahiti W	1	−1	0
55	Tonga W	1	−3	0
56	Georgia W	4	−6	0
57	Vanuatu W	3	−7	0
58	Solomon Islands W	3	−10	0
59	Latvia W	6	−13	0
60	Ukraine W	6	−17	0
61	Malta W	6	−20	0
62	Liechtenstein W	6	−31	0
63	Gibraltar W	6	−31	0
64	Luxembourg W	6	−33	0