Home › Football › World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe › Finland W v Serbia W

Finland W v Serbia W

Finland W

3–1Full time

Serbia W

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · FRI 9 OCT · Tammelan Stadion

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 19:02

Finland W 3–1 Serbia W FINLAND W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Finland W win~~58%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.264

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.212

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Finland W win58%

Draw21%

Serbia W win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 16:30

Venue · Tammelan Stadion

Referee · Catarina Isabel Ferreira Campos

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Finland W

4-4-2

23 K. Talaslahti

5 E. Koivisto

3 N. Karvonen

6 J. Tynnila

16 N. Lehtola

4 R. Oling

13 O. Siren

20 E. Summanen

9 K. Kosola

7 A. Engman

19 L. Lindstrom

Coach · Marko Saloranta

Substitutes

1 · A. Koivunen

12 · M. Majasaari

22 · N. Ruuskanen

2 · J. Mansaray

15 · E. Peuhkurinen

10 · E. Siren

14 · O. Ulenius

8 · M. Kiviranta

11 · V. Koivisto

17 · S. Franssi

18 · P. Nystrom

21 · O. Sevenius

Serbia W

4-3-3

1 M. Kostic

16 M. Cavic

5 V. Slovic

6 N. Damjanovic

3 A. Frajtovic

14 V. Milivojevic

8 D. Blagojevic

10 T. Filipovic

20 M. Bulatovic

11 M. Ivanovic

15 S. Stokic

Coach · L. Stojkanović

Substitutes

12 · S. Cetinja

23 · E. Aleksic

2 · A. Scepanovic

17 · M. Gakovic

4 · P. Stanic

22 · D. Stefanovic

9 · A. Milovanovic

7 · M. Mijatovic

19 · S. Sremcevic

13 · M. Saric

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Finland W

4-4-2

23 K. Talaslahti

5 E. Koivisto

3 N. Karvonen

6 J. Tynnila

16 N. Lehtola

4 R. Oling

13 O. Siren

20 E. Summanen

9 K. Kosola

7 A. Engman

19 L. Lindstrom

Coach · Marko Saloranta

Substitutes

1 · A. Koivunen

12 · M. Majasaari

22 · N. Ruuskanen

2 · J. Mansaray

15 · E. Peuhkurinen

10 · E. Siren

14 · O. Ulenius

8 · M. Kiviranta

11 · V. Koivisto

17 · S. Franssi

18 · P. Nystrom

21 · O. Sevenius

Serbia W

4-3-3

1 M. Kostic

16 M. Cavic

5 V. Slovic

6 N. Damjanovic

3 A. Frajtovic

14 V. Milivojevic

8 D. Blagojevic

10 T. Filipovic

20 M. Bulatovic

11 M. Ivanovic

15 S. Stokic

Coach · L. Stojkanović

Substitutes

12 · S. Cetinja

23 · E. Aleksic

2 · A. Scepanovic

17 · M. Gakovic

4 · P. Stanic

22 · D. Stefanovic

9 · A. Milovanovic

7 · M. Mijatovic

19 · S. Sremcevic

13 · M. Saric

Our number · finland w winPublished 9 Oct 16:36

58% The market63%

Us58%

~~Market~~63%

We make Finland W a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · finland w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 58% now. The market has gone from 52% to 63% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Finland W win	58%	63%	−5
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Serbia W win	21%	15%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	37%	50%	−13
Both teams to score	36%	47%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	61%	74%	−13
Over 3.5 goals	17%	31%	−14
Finland W or draw	79%	85%	−6
Finland W clean sheet	49%	–	–
Serbia W clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 19.5%

0123450 8.7 10.8 2.8 1 19.5 9.1 4.2 2 12.2 8.6 3.0 3 6.0 4.2 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Finland W down, Serbia W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every women's national side on one scale from 3,330 senior internationals up to 9 Oct 2026 - qualifiers, Nations Leagues, finals and friendlies - weighting recent matches more.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Finland W are at home.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Finland W, 0.70 for Serbia W. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 16:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FIN 1–1 SER · SER 1–0 FIN

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

FINLAND W

LWWWWW0–2 · 3–1 · 4–2 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 3–1

SERBIA W

LDLLLL1–3 · 0–0 · 0–6 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–4

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary W	6	+19	16
2	Germany W	6	+17	16
3	Switzerland W	6	+13	16
4	New Zealand W	5	+25	15
5	Spain W	6	+18	15
6	Kosovo W	6	+17	15
7	Croatia W	6	+15	15
8	Portugal W	6	+13	15
9	Finland W	6	+9	15
10	England W	6	+8	15
11	Scotland W	6	+22	14
12	Belgium W	6	+21	14
13	Wales W	6	+12	14
14	Denmark W	6	+7	14
15	France W	6	+6	13
16	Turkey W	6	+6	13
17	Papua New Guinea W	5	+10	12
18	Greece W	4	+7	12
19	Azerbaijan W	6	+6	12
20	American Samoa W	6	+5	12
21	Norway W	6	+2	12
22	Bosnia-Herzegovina W	6	+18	11
23	Czech Republic W	6	+10	11
24	Lithuania W	6	+8	11
25	Estonia W	6	+5	11
26	Netherlands W	6	+3	11
27	Romania W	4	+8	10
28	Belarus W	4	+9	9
29	Italy W	6	+8	9
30	Republic of Ireland W	6	0	9
31	Sweden W	6	0	8
32	Kazakhstan W	4	+3	7
33	Albania W	6	−5	7
34	Northern Ireland W	6	+1	6
35	Fiji W	4	0	6
36	Bulgaria W	6	−1	6
37	Faroe Islands W	4	−1	6
38	Slovakia W	6	−9	6
39	Iceland W	6	−9	6
40	Israel W	6	−10	6
41	North Macedonia W	6	−12	6
42	Moldova W	4	+1	5
43	Austria W	6	−6	4
44	Cook Islands W	2	−3	3
45	New Caledonia W	3	−8	3
46	Samoa W	3	−8	3
47	Slovenia W	6	−13	3
48	Poland W	6	−9	1
49	Cyprus W	4	−9	1
50	Armenia W	4	−12	1
51	Andorra W	6	−13	1
52	Serbia W	6	−15	1
53	Montenegro W	6	−17	1
54	Tahiti W	1	−1	0
55	Tonga W	1	−3	0
56	Georgia W	4	−6	0
57	Vanuatu W	3	−7	0
58	Solomon Islands W	3	−10	0
59	Latvia W	6	−13	0
60	Ukraine W	6	−17	0
61	Malta W	6	−20	0
62	Liechtenstein W	6	−31	0
63	Gibraltar W	6	−31	0
64	Luxembourg W	6	−33	0