England W v Greece W prediction · World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:03

England W 5–0 Greece W ENGLAND W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT4–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said England W win~~94%

~~The market said~~91%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.005

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.013

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said England W win at 94%.
1′KICK-OFF England W v Greece W
1′⚽ GOAL · 1' England W 1–0 Greece W
1′⚽ GOAL · 1' England W 1–0 Greece W · Alessia Russo
2′Little has changed for our model: England W 94% before kick-off, 93% now. 0–0 · 93–5–2
2′England W ahead on 3′ through Alessia Russo. 1–0. 1–0 · 98–1–0
2′⚽ GOAL · 3' England W 0–0 Greece W · Alessia Russo
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' England W 1–0 Greece W · Alessia Russo
13′⚽ GOAL · 16' England W 1–0 Greece W · Lauren James
14′Lauren James scores for England W on 16′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 98–2–0
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' England W 2–0 Greece W · Lauren James
31′⚽ GOAL · 30' England W 3–0 Greece W · Georgia Stanway (assist Lauren Hemp)
32′30′ and it is 3–0: Georgia Stanway on the scoresheet for England W. 3–0 · 100–0–0
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' England W 4–0 Greece W · Georgia Stanway
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' England W 4–0 Greece W · Lauren James
38′England W ahead on 34′ through Lauren James. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′5 goals already, more than the 4.6 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' England W 5–0 Greece W · Lauren James
45′HALF-TIME England W 4–0 Greece W
46′SECOND HALF England W 4–0 Greece W
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' England W · On: Bethany Mead · Off: Lauren James
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Greece W · On: Marianna Rapani · Off: Athanasia Moraitou
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Greece W · On: Stamatía Ntarzánou · Off: Maria paterna
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Greece W · On: E. Drakogiannaki · Off: E. Brame
50′Georgia Stanway scores for England W on 49′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' England W 5–0 Greece W · Georgia Stanway
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' England W · On: Niamh Charles · Off: Maya Le Tissier
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' England W · On: Jessica Park · Off: Lexi Potter
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' England W · On: Freya Godfrey · Off: Lauren Hemp
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Greece W · On: Georgía Chalatsogiánni · Off: Veatriki Sarri
72′The goal count is tracking the 4.6 we expected. 4–0 · 100–0–0
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' England W · On: Grace Fisk · Off: Leah Williamson
76′Alessia Russo scores for England W on 75′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' England W 5–0 Greece W · Lauren James
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' England W 5–0 Greece W · Alessia Russo
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Greece W · On: Panagiota Argyriou · Off: E. Saich
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Keira Walsh · England W
FTFULL TIME England W 5–0 Greece W
FTEngland W 5–0 Greece W · England W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 4–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

England W win94%

Draw4%

Greece W win2%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:30

VenueKing Power Stadium

RefereeGrigone·Rasa

Line-ups

England W

4-3-3

Greece W

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

England W

Greece W

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	England W	7	+10	18
23	Greece W	5	+5	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

England W

4-3-3

1 H. Hampton

2 M. Le Tissier

3 L. Williamson

4 J. Carter

5 A. Greenwood

6 K. Walsh

7 G. Stanway

8 A. Potter

10 L. James

9 A. Russo

11 L. Hemp

Coach · Sarina Wiegman

Substitutes

21 · A. Moorhouse

13 · K. Keating

16 · G. Fisk

15 · E. Morgan

12 · N. Charles

23 · E. Toone

18 · G. Clinton

22 · F. Godfrey

14 · L. Blindkilde

20 · E. Parkinson

17 · J. Park

19 · B. Mead

Greece W

4-2-3-1

12 S. Katergiannaki

15 V. Giannaka

4 M. Gkouni Papaioannou

9 E. Markou

22 M. Paterna

17 A. Moraitou

18 E. Brame

14 E. Saich

10 V. Sarri

23 K. K. Brouksair

7 I. Papatheodorou

Coach · Alexandros Katikaridis

Substitutes

1 · D. Giannakouli

13 · R. Petaloti

3 · S. Darzanou

8 · E. Drakogiannaki

2 · A. Fakinou

5 · M. Kapnisi

19 · M. Palama

6 · G. Chalatsogianni

16 · P. Argyriou

21 · S. Kongouli

20 · M. Rapani

11 · I. Tzourtzevits

Our number · england w winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

94% The market91%

Us94%

~~Market~~91%

We make England W a 94% chance to win. The market has them at 91%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 4.1–0.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · england w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 90%, 94% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 91% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
England W win	94%	91%	+3
Draw	4%	7%	−3
Greece W win	2%	2%	0
Over 2.5 goals	84%	83%	+1
Both teams to score	40%	19%	+20
Over 1.5 goals	94%	91%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	68%	69%	−1
England W or draw	98%	98%	0
England W clean sheet	59%	–	–
Greece W clean sheet	2%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 4–0 at 11.6%

0123450 1 4.4 2 8.2 4.3 3 11.3 5.9 4 11.6 6.1 5 9.5 5.0

under 2% 5% 12%+England W down, Greece W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every women's national side on one scale from 3,393 senior internationals up to 13 Oct 2026 - qualifiers, Nations Leagues, finals and friendlies - weighting recent matches more.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: England W are at home.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

4.08 goals for England W, 0.52 for Greece W. Most likely score 4–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 13 Oct 19:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GRE 1–3 ENG

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

ENGLAND W

WWWLWW2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 3–0 · 3–1

GREECE W

WWWDWL3–0 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–3

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Switzerland W	7	+17	19
2	Portugal W	7	+17	18
3	Finland W	7	+11	18
4	England W	7	+10	18
5	Scotland W	7	+24	17
6	Belgium W	7	+22	17
7	Wales W	7	+13	17
8	Germany W	6	+17	16
9	Hungary W	7	+11	16
10	New Zealand W	5	+25	15
11	Spain W	6	+18	15
12	Kosovo W	7	+16	15
13	Croatia W	7	+11	15
14	Norway W	7	+4	15
15	Netherlands W	7	+11	14
16	Denmark W	6	+7	14
17	Turkey W	7	+6	14
18	France W	6	+6	13
19	Italy W	7	+10	12
20	Papua New Guinea W	5	+10	12
21	Republic of Ireland W	7	+8	12
22	Azerbaijan W	6	+6	12
23	Greece W	5	+5	12
24	American Samoa W	6	+5	12
25	Bosnia-Herzegovina W	6	+18	11
26	Czechia W	7	+8	11
27	Estonia W	6	+5	11
28	Sweden W	7	+5	11
29	Lithuania W	7	+3	11
30	Romania W	5	+6	10
31	Belarus W	5	+7	9
32	Iceland W	7	−5	9
33	Austria W	7	−5	7
34	Kazakhstan W	5	−5	7
35	Albania W	7	−6	7
36	Fiji W	4	0	6
37	Bulgaria W	6	−1	6
38	Faroe Islands W	4	−1	6
39	Northern Ireland W	7	−3	6
40	Slovakia W	7	−11	6
41	North Macedonia W	6	−12	6
42	Israel W	7	−14	6
43	Moldova W	4	+1	5
44	Slovenia W	7	−13	4
45	Cook Islands W	2	−3	3
46	New Caledonia W	3	−8	3
47	Samoa W	3	−8	3
48	Ukraine W	7	−15	3
49	Cyprus W	4	−9	1
50	Poland W	7	−10	1
51	Armenia W	4	−12	1
52	Andorra W	6	−13	1
53	Montenegro W	6	−17	1
54	Serbia W	7	−17	1
55	Tahiti W	1	−1	0
56	Tonga W	1	−3	0
57	Georgia W	4	−6	0
58	Vanuatu W	3	−7	0
59	Solomon Islands W	3	−10	0
60	Latvia W	6	−13	0
61	Malta W	6	−20	0
62	Liechtenstein W	6	−31	0
63	Gibraltar W	6	−31	0
64	Luxembourg W	6	−33	0