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Croatia W v Iceland W

Croatia W

0–4Full time

Iceland W

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · FRI 9 OCT · Stadion Aldo Drosina

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

Croatia W 0–4 Iceland W ICELAND W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Iceland W win~~42%

~~The market said~~82%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.501

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.051

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Iceland W win at 42%.
45′🟨 YELLOW · 22' B. Živković · Croatia W
45′SECOND HALF Croatia W 0–1 Iceland W
46′HALF-TIME Croatia W 0–1 Iceland W
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Croatia W 0–2 Iceland W · A. Eiríksdóttir
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Croatia W 0–2 Iceland W · Glódís Perla Viggósdóttir
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Iceland W · On: katla tryggvadottir · Off: hildur antonsdottir Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Iceland W · On: Marin ida hermannsdottir · Off: Thelma Palmadottir Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Iceland W · On: Emilía Kiær Ásgeirsdóttir · Off: lea karolina vihjalmsdottir Corrected
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Croatia W 0–3 Iceland W · Glódís Perla Viggósdóttir
74′⚽ GOAL · 75' Croatia W 0–3 Iceland W · Hlin·Eiriksdottir
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Iceland W · On: M. Gros · Off: Hafrun Rakel Halldorsdottir Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Croatia W · On: Erika Vrban Zschuppe · Off: Martina Cavar Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Croatia W · On: Ana Markovic · Off: K. Kurkutović Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Croatia W · On: Ana Markovic · Off: K. Kurkutović Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Iceland W · On: Diljá Ýr Zomers · Off: Sveindis Jane Jonsdottir Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Croatia W · On: L. Kukavica · Off: Leonarda Balog Corrected
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Croatia W 0–4 Iceland W · Hlin·Eiriksdottir
FTFULL TIME Croatia W 0–4 Iceland W
FTCroatia W 0–4 Iceland W · Iceland W win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Croatia W win32%

Draw25%

Iceland W win42%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:45

Venue · Stadion Aldo Drosina

Referee · Frida Mia Klarlund Nielsen

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Croatia W

4-2-3-1

1 D. Bacic

2 L. Orkic

16 L. Vunic

3 A. Jelencic

20 B. Zivkovic

13 H. Spajic

4 L. Balog

11 K. Kurkutovic

5 T. Krznaric

9 J. Canjevac

18 M. Cavar

Coach · N. Gračan

Substitutes

6 · T. Vracevic

7 · P. Pezelj

8 · A. Bakalar

10 · A. Guvo

12 · N. Radolovic

14 · A. Dulcic

15 · L. Kukavica

17 · V. Akrap

19 · L. Vlastelica

21 · A. Markovic

22 · E. Zschuppe

23 · C. Sesjak

Iceland W

4-3-3

1 C. Runarsdottir

2 A. Eiriksdottir

4 G. Viggosdottir

18 G. Arnardottir

21 H. Halldorsdottir

8 A. Johannsdottir

10 K. Vilhjalmsdottir

6 H. Antonsdottir

20 T. K. Palmadottir

14 H. Eiriksdottir

23 S. Jonsdottir

Coach · Thorsteinn Halldorsson

Substitutes

3 · E. Oskarsdottir

5 · E. Asgeirsdottir

7 · K. Tryggvadottir

9 · D. Zomers

11 · B. Georgsdottir

12 · T. Ivarsdottir

13 · F. Birkisdottir

15 · M. Gros

16 · L. van Bemmel

17 · I. Hermannsdottir

19 · A. Halldorsdottir

22 · J. Kujundzic

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Croatia W

4-2-3-1

1 D. Bacic

2 L. Orkic

16 L. Vunic

3 A. Jelencic

20 B. Zivkovic

13 H. Spajic

4 L. Balog

11 K. Kurkutovic

5 T. Krznaric

9 J. Canjevac

18 M. Cavar

Coach · N. Gračan

Substitutes

6 · T. Vracevic

7 · P. Pezelj

8 · A. Bakalar

10 · A. Guvo

12 · N. Radolovic

14 · A. Dulcic

15 · L. Kukavica

17 · V. Akrap

19 · L. Vlastelica

21 · A. Markovic

22 · E. Zschuppe

23 · C. Sesjak

Iceland W

4-3-3

1 C. Runarsdottir

2 A. Eiriksdottir

4 G. Viggosdottir

18 G. Arnardottir

21 H. Halldorsdottir

8 A. Johannsdottir

10 K. Vilhjalmsdottir

6 H. Antonsdottir

20 T. K. Palmadottir

14 H. Eiriksdottir

23 S. Jonsdottir

Coach · Thorsteinn Halldorsson

Substitutes

3 · E. Oskarsdottir

5 · E. Asgeirsdottir

7 · K. Tryggvadottir

9 · D. Zomers

11 · B. Georgsdottir

12 · T. Ivarsdottir

13 · F. Birkisdottir

15 · M. Gros

16 · L. van Bemmel

17 · I. Hermannsdottir

19 · A. Halldorsdottir

22 · J. Kujundzic

Our number · iceland w winPublished 9 Oct 17:35

42% The market82%

Us42%

~~Market~~82%

We make Iceland W a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 82%. We are 40 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · iceland w win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 85% to 82% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Croatia W win	32%	6%	+26
Draw	25%	12%	+13
Iceland W win	42%	82%	−40
Over 2.5 goals	29%	66%	−36
Both teams to score	34%	41%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	53%	84%	−31
Over 3.5 goals	12%	45%	−33
Croatia W or draw	58%	18%	+40
Croatia W clean sheet	35%	–	–
Iceland W clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 18.8%

0123450 11.9 18.8 8.2 2.8 1 15.9 10.3 7.0 2.4 2 5.5 5.7 3.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Croatia W down, Iceland W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every women's national side on one scale from 3,330 senior internationals up to 9 Oct 2026 - qualifiers, Nations Leagues, finals and friendlies - weighting recent matches more.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Croatia W are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

0.85 goals for Croatia W, 1.04 for Iceland W. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 17:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2011

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

CROATIA W

WLWWWW1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 9–0 · 1–0 · 4–0

ICELAND W

LLWLWL0–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–6

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary W	6	+19	16
2	Germany W	6	+17	16
3	Switzerland W	6	+13	16
4	New Zealand W	5	+25	15
5	Spain W	6	+18	15
6	Kosovo W	6	+17	15
7	Croatia W	6	+15	15
8	Portugal W	6	+13	15
9	Finland W	6	+9	15
10	England W	6	+8	15
11	Scotland W	6	+22	14
12	Belgium W	6	+21	14
13	Wales W	6	+12	14
14	Denmark W	6	+7	14
15	France W	6	+6	13
16	Turkey W	6	+6	13
17	Papua New Guinea W	5	+10	12
18	Greece W	4	+7	12
19	Azerbaijan W	6	+6	12
20	American Samoa W	6	+5	12
21	Norway W	6	+2	12
22	Bosnia-Herzegovina W	6	+18	11
23	Czech Republic W	6	+10	11
24	Lithuania W	6	+8	11
25	Estonia W	6	+5	11
26	Netherlands W	6	+3	11
27	Romania W	4	+8	10
28	Belarus W	4	+9	9
29	Italy W	6	+8	9
30	Republic of Ireland W	6	0	9
31	Sweden W	6	0	8
32	Kazakhstan W	4	+3	7
33	Albania W	6	−5	7
34	Northern Ireland W	6	+1	6
35	Fiji W	4	0	6
36	Bulgaria W	6	−1	6
37	Faroe Islands W	4	−1	6
38	Slovakia W	6	−9	6
39	Iceland W	6	−9	6
40	Israel W	6	−10	6
41	North Macedonia W	6	−12	6
42	Moldova W	4	+1	5
43	Austria W	6	−6	4
44	Cook Islands W	2	−3	3
45	New Caledonia W	3	−8	3
46	Samoa W	3	−8	3
47	Slovenia W	6	−13	3
48	Poland W	6	−9	1
49	Cyprus W	4	−9	1
50	Armenia W	4	−12	1
51	Andorra W	6	−13	1
52	Serbia W	6	−15	1
53	Montenegro W	6	−17	1
54	Tahiti W	1	−1	0
55	Tonga W	1	−3	0
56	Georgia W	4	−6	0
57	Vanuatu W	3	−7	0
58	Solomon Islands W	3	−10	0
59	Latvia W	6	−13	0
60	Ukraine W	6	−17	0
61	Malta W	6	−20	0
62	Liechtenstein W	6	−31	0
63	Gibraltar W	6	−31	0
64	Luxembourg W	6	−33	0