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Belgium W v Poland W

Belgium W

1–0Full time

Poland W

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · FRI 9 OCT · Den Dreef

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:00

Belgium W 1–0 Poland W BELGIUM W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Belgium W win~~53%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.335

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.395

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Belgium W win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Belgium W was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–22–27
1′KICK-OFF Belgium W v Poland W
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' wiktoria zieniewicz · Poland W
33′PENALTY MISSED · 33' Tessa Wullaert · Belgium W
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Belgium W 0–1 Poland W
45′SECOND HALF Belgium W 1–0 Poland W
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Belgium W 1–0 Poland W
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Belgium W 1–0 Poland W · Elena Dhont (assist Tessa Wullaert)
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Paulina Dudek · Poland W
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Sari Kees · Belgium W
57′PENALTY MISSED · 57' Ewa Pajor · Poland W
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Belgium W · On: J. Matthys · Off: Saar Janssen Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Belgium W · On: Luna Vanzeir · Off: Marie Detruyer Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Poland W · On: P. Sarapata · Off: Martyna Wiankowska Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Belgium W · On: Jarne teulings · Off: Mariam Toloba Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Poland W · On: Weronika Zawistowska · Off: Paulina Tomasiak Corrected
95′SUBSTITUTION · 95' Poland W · On: Aleksandra Zaremba · Off: wiktoria zieniewicz Corrected
95′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Janice Cayman · Belgium W
FTFULL TIME Belgium W 1–0 Poland W
FTBelgium W 1–0 Poland W · Belgium W win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Belgium W win53%

Draw18%

Poland W win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:15

Venue · Den Dreef

Referee · Emanuela Rusta

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Belgium W

4-3-3

21 L. Seynhaeve

2 S. Kees

4 A. Tysiak

16 Z. Mertens

22 S. Janssen

20 M. Detruyer

11 J. Cayman

15 A. Toloba

17 J. Janssens

9 T. Wullaert

13 E. Dhont

Coach · Elisabet Gunnarsdottir

Substitutes

12 · D. Lemey

1 · N. Evrard

5 · I. Iliano

8 · C. Brackman

3 · A. Littel

23 · K. Missipo

10 · J. Teulings

14 · L. Jacobs

7 · A. Bosteels

18 · L. Vanzeir

6 · K. Helsen

19 · J. Mathys

Poland W

4-3-3

22 K. Seweryn

3 W. Zieniewicz

5 O. Wos

4 P. Dudek

2 M. Wiankowska

23 A. Achcinska

8 E. Kamczyk

15 M. Kokosz

21 P. Tomasiak

9 E. Pajor

19 N. Padilla

Coach · Nina Patalon

Substitutes

1 · N. Radkiewicz

12 · J. Wozniak

14 · J. Walentowicz

16 · K. Skupien

18 · M. Piekarska

6 · A. Zaremba

17 · G. Grzybowska

20 · Z. Witek

7 · P. Sarapata

10 · W. Zawistowska

13 · K. Maciazka

11 · M. Sobal

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Belgium W

4-3-3

21 L. Seynhaeve

2 S. Kees

4 A. Tysiak

16 Z. Mertens

22 S. Janssen

20 M. Detruyer

11 J. Cayman

15 A. Toloba

17 J. Janssens

9 T. Wullaert

13 E. Dhont

Coach · Elisabet Gunnarsdottir

Substitutes

12 · D. Lemey

1 · N. Evrard

5 · I. Iliano

8 · C. Brackman

3 · A. Littel

23 · K. Missipo

10 · J. Teulings

14 · L. Jacobs

7 · A. Bosteels

18 · L. Vanzeir

6 · K. Helsen

19 · J. Mathys

Poland W

4-3-3

22 K. Seweryn

3 W. Zieniewicz

5 O. Wos

4 P. Dudek

2 M. Wiankowska

23 A. Achcinska

8 E. Kamczyk

15 M. Kokosz

21 P. Tomasiak

9 E. Pajor

19 N. Padilla

Coach · Nina Patalon

Substitutes

1 · N. Radkiewicz

12 · J. Wozniak

14 · J. Walentowicz

16 · K. Skupien

18 · M. Piekarska

6 · A. Zaremba

17 · G. Grzybowska

20 · Z. Witek

7 · P. Sarapata

10 · W. Zawistowska

13 · K. Maciazka

11 · M. Sobal

Our number · belgium w winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

53% The market49%

Us53%

~~Market~~49%

We make Belgium W a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · belgium w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 53% now. The market has gone from 51% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Belgium W win	53%	49%	+5
Draw	18%	26%	−8
Poland W win	29%	26%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	63%	57%	+6
Both teams to score	61%	59%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	78%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	41%	37%	+4
Belgium W or draw	71%	74%	−4
Belgium W clean sheet	26%	–	–
Poland W clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 9.7%

0123450 7.5 3.5 1 9.7 7.6 6.6 3.0 2 7.1 9.5 6.3 2.8 3 4.5 6.0 4.0 4 2.2 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Belgium W down, Poland W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every women's national side on one scale from 3,330 senior internationals up to 9 Oct 2026 - qualifiers, Nations Leagues, finals and friendlies - weighting recent matches more.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Belgium W are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Belgium W, 1.34 for Poland W. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 19:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2011

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

BELGIUM W

WWDDWW3–0 · 5–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 6–0 · 7–0

POLAND W

DLLLLL2–2 · 1–4 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–3

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary W	6	+19	16
2	Germany W	6	+17	16
3	Switzerland W	6	+13	16
4	New Zealand W	5	+25	15
5	Spain W	6	+18	15
6	Kosovo W	6	+17	15
7	Croatia W	6	+15	15
8	Portugal W	6	+13	15
9	Finland W	6	+9	15
10	England W	6	+8	15
11	Scotland W	6	+22	14
12	Belgium W	6	+21	14
13	Wales W	6	+12	14
14	Denmark W	6	+7	14
15	France W	6	+6	13
16	Turkey W	6	+6	13
17	Papua New Guinea W	5	+10	12
18	Greece W	4	+7	12
19	Azerbaijan W	6	+6	12
20	American Samoa W	6	+5	12
21	Norway W	6	+2	12
22	Bosnia-Herzegovina W	6	+18	11
23	Czech Republic W	6	+10	11
24	Lithuania W	6	+8	11
25	Estonia W	6	+5	11
26	Netherlands W	6	+3	11
27	Romania W	4	+8	10
28	Belarus W	4	+9	9
29	Italy W	6	+8	9
30	Republic of Ireland W	6	0	9
31	Sweden W	6	0	8
32	Kazakhstan W	4	+3	7
33	Albania W	6	−5	7
34	Northern Ireland W	6	+1	6
35	Fiji W	4	0	6
36	Bulgaria W	6	−1	6
37	Faroe Islands W	4	−1	6
38	Slovakia W	6	−9	6
39	Iceland W	6	−9	6
40	Israel W	6	−10	6
41	North Macedonia W	6	−12	6
42	Moldova W	4	+1	5
43	Austria W	6	−6	4
44	Cook Islands W	2	−3	3
45	New Caledonia W	3	−8	3
46	Samoa W	3	−8	3
47	Slovenia W	6	−13	3
48	Poland W	6	−9	1
49	Cyprus W	4	−9	1
50	Armenia W	4	−12	1
51	Andorra W	6	−13	1
52	Serbia W	6	−15	1
53	Montenegro W	6	−17	1
54	Tahiti W	1	−1	0
55	Tonga W	1	−3	0
56	Georgia W	4	−6	0
57	Vanuatu W	3	−7	0
58	Solomon Islands W	3	−10	0
59	Latvia W	6	−13	0
60	Ukraine W	6	−17	0
61	Malta W	6	−20	0
62	Liechtenstein W	6	−31	0
63	Gibraltar W	6	−31	0
64	Luxembourg W	6	−33	0