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Belarus W v Italy W

Belarus W

0–2Full time

Italy W

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · FRI 9 OCT · David Petriashvili Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:01

Belarus W 0–2 Italy W BELARUS W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTUNDER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Belarus W win~~39%

~~The market said~~4%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.697

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.029

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Belarus W win at 39%.
59′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Belarus W · On: Karina Olkhovik · Off: Viktoria Valyuk Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Belarus W · On: D. Protasyuk · Off: Anastasia kovaleva Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Italy W · On: Barbara Bonansea · Off: Annamaria Serturini Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Italy W · On: Giulia Dragoni · Off: Eva schatzera Corrected
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Belarus W 0–1 Italy W
73′⚽ GOAL · 66' Belarus W 0–1 Italy W · Martina Piemonte
82′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Belarus W · On: Anna Sinyavskaya · Off: Melana Surovtseva Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Italy W · On: Cristiana Girelli · Off: Martina Piemonte Corrected
86′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Elisabetta Oliviero · Italy W
87′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Anna Sinyavskaya · Belarus W
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Belarus W 0–2 Italy W · Martina Piemonte
94′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Italy W · On: Emma Severini · Off: Manuela Giugliano Corrected
94′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Italy W · On: Elisa Polli · Off: Benedetta Glionna Corrected
FTFULL TIME Belarus W 0–2 Italy W
FTBelarus W 0–2 Italy W · Belarus W win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Under 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Belarus W win39%

Draw29%

Italy W win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:15

Venue · David Petriashvili Stadium

Referee · Maïka Vanderstichel

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Belarus W

5-4-1

1 N. Voskobovich

11 Y. Slesarchik

2 V. Kazakevich

9 A. Kozyupa

17 A. Sitnikava

8 Z. Kapustina

18 V. Valyuk

3 A. Linnik

7 V. Belaya

19 A. Kovaleva

16 M. Surovtseva

Coach · V. Shindikov

Substitutes

22 · M. Svidunovich

21 · V. Bogdan

20 · A. Cherlenok

5 · D. Gorshkova

15 · D. Protasyuk

14 · K. Olkhovik

6 · A. Sinyavskaya

13 · D. Maniukova

Italy W

3-4-2-1

1 L. Giuliani

2 V. Bergamaschi

19 M. Lenzini

23 C. Salvai

21 B. Glionna

4 E. Schatzer

20 G. Greggi

13 E. Oliviero

6 M. Giugliano

15 A. Serturini

9 M. Piemonte

Coach · Andrea Soncin

Substitutes

22 · F. Durante

12 · R. Baldi

3 · L. Di Guglielmo

17 · L. Boattin

5 · F. D'Auria

8 · E. Severini

16 · G. Dragoni

14 · M. Rosucci

11 · B. Bonansea

7 · S. Cantore

10 · C. Girelli

18 · E. Polli

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Belarus W

5-4-1

1 N. Voskobovich

11 Y. Slesarchik

2 V. Kazakevich

9 A. Kozyupa

17 A. Sitnikava

8 Z. Kapustina

18 V. Valyuk

3 A. Linnik

7 V. Belaya

19 A. Kovaleva

16 M. Surovtseva

Coach · V. Shindikov

Substitutes

22 · M. Svidunovich

21 · V. Bogdan

20 · A. Cherlenok

5 · D. Gorshkova

15 · D. Protasyuk

14 · K. Olkhovik

6 · A. Sinyavskaya

13 · D. Maniukova

Italy W

3-4-2-1

1 L. Giuliani

2 V. Bergamaschi

19 M. Lenzini

23 C. Salvai

21 B. Glionna

4 E. Schatzer

20 G. Greggi

13 E. Oliviero

6 M. Giugliano

15 A. Serturini

9 M. Piemonte

Coach · Andrea Soncin

Substitutes

22 · F. Durante

12 · R. Baldi

3 · L. Di Guglielmo

17 · L. Boattin

5 · F. D'Auria

8 · E. Severini

16 · G. Dragoni

14 · M. Rosucci

11 · B. Bonansea

7 · S. Cantore

10 · C. Girelli

18 · E. Polli

Our number · belarus w winPublished 9 Oct 17:06

39% The market4%

Us39%

~~Market~~4%

We make Belarus W a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 4%. We are 35 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · belarus w win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Belarus W win	39%	4%	+35
Draw	29%	9%	+20
Italy W win	32%	87%	−54
Over 2.5 goals	22%	71%	−49
Both teams to score	27%	37%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	45%	85%	−41
Over 3.5 goals	8%	51%	−43
Belarus W or draw	68%	13%	+54
Belarus W clean sheet	48%	–	–
Italy W clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 20.3%

0123450 17.1 17.9 5.6 1 20.3 9.9 4.8 2 7.4 5.5 2.1 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Belarus W down, Italy W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every women's national side on one scale from 3,330 senior internationals up to 9 Oct 2026 - qualifiers, Nations Leagues, finals and friendlies - weighting recent matches more.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Belarus W are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

0.86 goals for Belarus W, 0.74 for Italy W. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 17:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2011

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

BELARUS W

WLWWLW2–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 6–0

ITALY W

LDWDWD0–1 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–2

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary W	6	+19	16
2	Germany W	6	+17	16
3	Switzerland W	6	+13	16
4	New Zealand W	5	+25	15
5	Spain W	6	+18	15
6	Kosovo W	6	+17	15
7	Croatia W	6	+15	15
8	Portugal W	6	+13	15
9	Finland W	6	+9	15
10	England W	6	+8	15
11	Scotland W	6	+22	14
12	Belgium W	6	+21	14
13	Wales W	6	+12	14
14	Denmark W	6	+7	14
15	France W	6	+6	13
16	Turkey W	6	+6	13
17	Papua New Guinea W	5	+10	12
18	Greece W	4	+7	12
19	Azerbaijan W	6	+6	12
20	American Samoa W	6	+5	12
21	Norway W	6	+2	12
22	Bosnia-Herzegovina W	6	+18	11
23	Czech Republic W	6	+10	11
24	Lithuania W	6	+8	11
25	Estonia W	6	+5	11
26	Netherlands W	6	+3	11
27	Romania W	4	+8	10
28	Belarus W	4	+9	9
29	Italy W	6	+8	9
30	Republic of Ireland W	6	0	9
31	Sweden W	6	0	8
32	Kazakhstan W	4	+3	7
33	Albania W	6	−5	7
34	Northern Ireland W	6	+1	6
35	Fiji W	4	0	6
36	Bulgaria W	6	−1	6
37	Faroe Islands W	4	−1	6
38	Slovakia W	6	−9	6
39	Iceland W	6	−9	6
40	Israel W	6	−10	6
41	North Macedonia W	6	−12	6
42	Moldova W	4	+1	5
43	Austria W	6	−6	4
44	Cook Islands W	2	−3	3
45	New Caledonia W	3	−8	3
46	Samoa W	3	−8	3
47	Slovenia W	6	−13	3
48	Poland W	6	−9	1
49	Cyprus W	4	−9	1
50	Armenia W	4	−12	1
51	Andorra W	6	−13	1
52	Serbia W	6	−15	1
53	Montenegro W	6	−17	1
54	Tahiti W	1	−1	0
55	Tonga W	1	−3	0
56	Georgia W	4	−6	0
57	Vanuatu W	3	−7	0
58	Solomon Islands W	3	−10	0
59	Latvia W	6	−13	0
60	Ukraine W	6	−17	0
61	Malta W	6	−20	0
62	Liechtenstein W	6	−31	0
63	Gibraltar W	6	−31	0
64	Luxembourg W	6	−33	0