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Albania W v Wales W

Albania W

0–1Full time

Wales W

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · FRI 9 OCT · Loro Borici Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 19:31

Albania W 0–1 Wales W WALES W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Wales W win~~54%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.316

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.073

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wales W win at 54%.
68′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Megi Doci · Albania W
68′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Wales W · On: Hannah Cain · Off: Rachel Susan Rowe Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Wales W · On: Scarlett Hill · Off: Esther Morgan Corrected
68′SECOND HALF Albania W 0–1 Wales W
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Wales W · On: Lois Kathleen Joel · Off: Angharad Jane James Corrected
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Elise Hughes · Wales W
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Albania W · On: Mesuare Begallo · Off: Mikaela Metalla Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Albania W · On: Valentina Troka · Off: Fortesa Berisha Corrected
95′SUBSTITUTION · 95' Wales W · On: Olivia Francis · Off: Mared Griffiths Corrected
FTFULL TIME Albania W 0–1 Wales W
FTAlbania W 0–1 Wales W · Wales W win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Albania W win27%

Draw18%

Wales W win54%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Loro Borici Stadium

Referee · Eleni Antoniou

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Albania W

5-3-2

12 R. Spahiu

8 V. Levenaj

5 A. Bajraktari

22 M. Metalla

21 A. Hilaj

6 S. Maliqi

14 E. Franja

10 Q. Krasniqi

15 G. Berisha

7 F. Berisha

11 M. Doci

Coach · A. Grimaj

Substitutes

23 · K. Spaho

1 · A. Hyska

4 · R. Maxhalaku

20 · L. Dedgjonaj

9 · V. Troka

2 · E. Elezaj

18 · S. Begallo

19 · X. Ndoj

16 · I. Zarka

13 · K. Borci

17 · F. Kuqi

Wales W

4-4-2

21 S. Middleton-Patel

5 E. Morgan

6 M. Davies

3 G. Evans

2 L. Woodham

10 M. Griffiths

13 R. Rowe

4 S. Ingle

8 A. James-Turner

9 E. Hughes

20 C. Jones

Coach · Rhian Wilkinson

Substitutes

1 · S. Kelly

12 · L. Farrell Shrouder

7 · L. Joel

18 · S. Hill

16 · C. Estcourt

17 · C. Williams

14 · P. Poole

11 · H. Cain

15 · M. McAteer

19 · C. Gregson

22 · O. Francis

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Albania W

5-3-2

12 R. Spahiu

8 V. Levenaj

5 A. Bajraktari

22 M. Metalla

21 A. Hilaj

6 S. Maliqi

14 E. Franja

10 Q. Krasniqi

15 G. Berisha

7 F. Berisha

11 M. Doci

Coach · A. Grimaj

Substitutes

23 · K. Spaho

1 · A. Hyska

4 · R. Maxhalaku

20 · L. Dedgjonaj

9 · V. Troka

2 · E. Elezaj

18 · S. Begallo

19 · X. Ndoj

16 · I. Zarka

13 · K. Borci

17 · F. Kuqi

Wales W

4-4-2

21 S. Middleton-Patel

5 E. Morgan

6 M. Davies

3 G. Evans

2 L. Woodham

10 M. Griffiths

13 R. Rowe

4 S. Ingle

8 A. James-Turner

9 E. Hughes

20 C. Jones

Coach · Rhian Wilkinson

Substitutes

1 · S. Kelly

12 · L. Farrell Shrouder

7 · L. Joel

18 · S. Hill

16 · C. Estcourt

17 · C. Williams

14 · P. Poole

11 · H. Cain

15 · M. McAteer

19 · C. Gregson

22 · O. Francis

Our number · wales w winPublished 9 Oct 17:06

54% The market78%

Us54%

~~Market~~78%

We make Wales W a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 24 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · wales w win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 81% to 78% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Albania W win	27%	7%	+21
Draw	18%	15%	+3
Wales W win	54%	78%	−24
Over 2.5 goals	56%	56%	0
Both teams to score	54%	35%	+20
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	35%	−2
Albania W or draw	46%	22%	+24
Albania W clean sheet	17%	–	–
Wales W clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.0%

0123450 2.8 12.0 8.4 5.0 2.2 1 8.7 8.4 9.7 5.8 2.6 2 3.6 6.3 5.6 3.3 3 2.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Albania W down, Wales W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every women's national side on one scale from 3,330 senior internationals up to 9 Oct 2026 - qualifiers, Nations Leagues, finals and friendlies - weighting recent matches more.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Albania W are at home.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Albania W, 1.78 for Wales W. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 16:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALB 0–1 WAL · WAL 4–0 ALB

Form · last six in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe

ALBANIA W

WLLLDW2–1 · 1–5 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 5–2

WALES W

DWWWDW2–2 · 6–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2027

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary W	6	+19	16
2	Germany W	6	+17	16
3	Switzerland W	6	+13	16
4	New Zealand W	5	+25	15
5	Spain W	6	+18	15
6	Kosovo W	6	+17	15
7	Croatia W	6	+15	15
8	Portugal W	6	+13	15
9	Finland W	6	+9	15
10	England W	6	+8	15
11	Scotland W	6	+22	14
12	Belgium W	6	+21	14
13	Wales W	6	+12	14
14	Denmark W	6	+7	14
15	France W	6	+6	13
16	Turkey W	6	+6	13
17	Papua New Guinea W	5	+10	12
18	Greece W	4	+7	12
19	Azerbaijan W	6	+6	12
20	American Samoa W	6	+5	12
21	Norway W	6	+2	12
22	Bosnia-Herzegovina W	6	+18	11
23	Czech Republic W	6	+10	11
24	Lithuania W	6	+8	11
25	Estonia W	6	+5	11
26	Netherlands W	6	+3	11
27	Romania W	4	+8	10
28	Belarus W	4	+9	9
29	Italy W	6	+8	9
30	Republic of Ireland W	6	0	9
31	Sweden W	6	0	8
32	Kazakhstan W	4	+3	7
33	Albania W	6	−5	7
34	Northern Ireland W	6	+1	6
35	Fiji W	4	0	6
36	Bulgaria W	6	−1	6
37	Faroe Islands W	4	−1	6
38	Slovakia W	6	−9	6
39	Iceland W	6	−9	6
40	Israel W	6	−10	6
41	North Macedonia W	6	−12	6
42	Moldova W	4	+1	5
43	Austria W	6	−6	4
44	Cook Islands W	2	−3	3
45	New Caledonia W	3	−8	3
46	Samoa W	3	−8	3
47	Slovenia W	6	−13	3
48	Poland W	6	−9	1
49	Cyprus W	4	−9	1
50	Armenia W	4	−12	1
51	Andorra W	6	−13	1
52	Serbia W	6	−15	1
53	Montenegro W	6	−17	1
54	Tahiti W	1	−1	0
55	Tonga W	1	−3	0
56	Georgia W	4	−6	0
57	Vanuatu W	3	−7	0
58	Solomon Islands W	3	−10	0
59	Latvia W	6	−13	0
60	Ukraine W	6	−17	0
61	Malta W	6	−20	0
62	Liechtenstein W	6	−31	0
63	Gibraltar W	6	−31	0
64	Luxembourg W	6	−33	0