Villarreal U19 v Napoli U19 prediction · UEFA Youth League

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:57

Villarreal U19 5–0 Napoli U19 VILLARREAL U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Villarreal U19 win~~69%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.144

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.166

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Villarreal U19 win at 69%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Villarreal U19 69% before kick-off, 72% now. 0–0 · 72–16–12
1′KICK-OFF Villarreal U19 v Napoli U19
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Villarreal U19 1–0 Napoli U19
7′A goal for Villarreal U19 on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 88–9–4
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Villarreal U19 win: 69% at kick-off, 88% now
9′We said Villarreal U19 at 69% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–4
12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Napoli U19
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Villarreal U19 2–0 Napoli U19
17′15′ and it is 2–0: R. Garcia Palomar on the scoresheet for Villarreal U19. 2–0 · 96–3–1
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Villarreal U19 win: 69% at kick-off, 96% now
19′We said Villarreal U19 at 69% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
37′SUBSTITUTION · 36' Villarreal U19 · On: S. Ndiaye · Off: M. Kone
42′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 2–0 · 97–3–0
45′Napoli U19 are down to ten from 45′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–0 · 97–2–0
45′🟥 RED CARD · 47' Napoli U19
45′HALF-TIME Villarreal U19 2–0 Napoli U19
46′SECOND HALF Villarreal U19 2–0 Napoli U19
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Napoli U19 · On: G. Marotta · Off: C. Liccardo
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Villarreal U19 · On: Y. Kisak · Off: S. Barrera
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Napoli U19 · On: M. De Michele · Off: F. De Stefano
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Villarreal U19 3–0 Napoli U19
61′Villarreal U19 ahead on 60′ through R. Garcia Palomar. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Villarreal U19 win: 69% at kick-off, 100% now
63′We said Villarreal U19 at 69% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Villarreal U19 · On: M. Camara · Off: A. Valls
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Villarreal U19 · On: I. Perez · Off: E. Gonzalez
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Villarreal U19 4–0 Napoli U19 · R. Garcia Palomar
72′R. Garcia Palomar scores for Villarreal U19 on 70′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Napoli U19 · On: I. G. Candela · Off: A. Santella
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Napoli U19 · On: S. Pengue · Off: F. Barido
74′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Napoli U19
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Napoli U19 · On: L. Riccio · Off: A. D'Angelo
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Villarreal U19 · On: A. Guillamon · Off: A. V. Soteras
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Villarreal U19 5–0 Napoli U19 · R. Garcia Palomar
88′87′ and it is 5–0: R. Garcia Palomar on the scoresheet for Villarreal U19. 5–0 · 100–0–0
90′5 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Villarreal U19 5–0 Napoli U19
FTVillarreal U19 5–0 Napoli U19 · Villarreal U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 14:12 · locked at kick-off

Villarreal U19 win69%

Draw17%

Napoli U19 win14%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 15:00

VenueCiudad Deportiva del Villareal

Line-ups

Villarreal U19

Napoli U19

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Villarreal U19

Napoli U19

35Days since last match34

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	Villarreal U19	1	+1	3
40	Napoli U19	1	−1	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Villarreal U19

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Polo

22 A. V. Soteras

4 R. Martin

5 G. Anadon

10 M. Roca

17 S. Rodriguez

34 M. Kone

6 A. Valls

14 S. Barrera

9 R. Garcia Palomar

15 E. Gonzalez

Coach · Miguel Ángel Tena García

Substitutes

2 · A. Falco Montanet

3 · L. Pilili

8 · M. Camara

11 · A. Guillamon

13 · E. Ursu

16 · S. Llopis

20 · S. Ndiaye

28 · I. Perez

29 · Y. Kisak

Napoli U19

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Pugliese

5 A. Zappala

6 R. Natale

3 A. Branchizio

2 C. Liccardo

8 A. D'Angelo

4 F. De Stefano

7 A. Santella

10 F. Barido

9 M. Pereyra

11 E. Favicchio

Coach · Dario Rocco

Substitutes

12 · D. Spinelli

13 · C. Lieto

14 · G. Marotta

15 · I. G. Candela

16 · M. Melnyk

17 · L. Riccio

18 · M. De Michele

19 · S. Pengue

20 · M. Mane

Our number · villarreal u19 winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 14:12 · locked at kick-off

69% The market67%

Us69%

~~Market~~67%

We make Villarreal U19 a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.6–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · villarreal u19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villarreal U19 win	69%	67%	+2
Draw	17%	18%	−1
Napoli U19 win	14%	15%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	67%	70%	−2
Both teams to score	55%	62%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	86%	86%	0
Over 3.5 goals	46%	51%	−4
Villarreal U19 or draw	86%	85%	+1
Villarreal U19 clean sheet	39%	–	–
Napoli U19 clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.2%

0123450 3.7 2.9 1 7.3 7.8 3.8 2 9.2 8.6 4.3 3 7.8 7.0 3.3 4 5.3 4.5 2.1 5 3.1 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villarreal U19 down, Napoli U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 968 UEFA Youth League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

UEFA Youth League matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Villarreal U19 at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Napoli U19 away: 0.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.57 goals for Villarreal U19, 0.97 for Napoli U19. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in UEFA Youth League since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in UEFA Youth League

VILLARREAL U19

WWWWLW2–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–2

NAPOLI U19

DDDWLL1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HJK U19	1	+6	3
2	Zrinjski U19	1	+6	3
3	Bayern München U19	1	+5	3
4	PSG U19	1	+5	3
5	Kairat U19	1	+5	3
6	Manchester United U19	1	+5	3
7	Stuttgart U19	1	+5	3
8	Cardiff Metropolitan U19	1	+4	3
9	Akademija Pandev U19	1	+3	3
10	Flora III	1	+3	3
11	Real Madrid U19	1	+3	3
12	Club Brugge U19	1	+2	3
13	Roma U19	1	+2	3
14	Porto U19	1	+2	3
15	Partizani U19	1	+2	3
16	Dinamo Minsk U19	1	+1	3
17	Žalgiris U19	1	+1	3
18	Villarreal U19	1	+1	3
19	Arsenal U19	1	+1	3
20	Feyenoord U19	1	+1	3
21	Slavia Praha U19	1	+1	3
22	PSV U19	1	+1	3
23	Atlético Madrid U19	1	0	1
24	Galatasaray U19	1	0	1
25	Liverpool U19	1	0	1
26	Sporting CP U19	1	0	1
27	Como U19	1	0	1
28	RB Leipzig U19	1	0	1
29	AEK Athens U19	1	0	1
30	Cliftonville U19	1	0	1
31	LASK U19	1	0	1
32	Lille U19	1	0	1
33	Real Betis U19	1	0	1
34	Super Nova U19	1	0	1
35	Dinamo Tbilisi U19	1	−1	0
36	Thor Akureyri U19	1	−1	0
37	Borussia Dortmund U19	1	−1	0
38	Barcelona U19	1	−1	0
39	Lens U19	1	−1	0
40	Napoli U19	1	−1	0
41	Shakhtar Donetsk U19	1	−1	0
42	Aston Villa U19	1	−2	0
43	Fenerbahce U19	1	−2	0
44	Manchester City U19	1	−2	0
45	Valletta U19	1	−2	0
46	FC Santa Coloma U19	1	−3	0
47	HB U19	1	−3	0
48	Internazionale U19	1	−3	0
49	UNA Strassen U19	1	−4	0
50	Bodø / Glimt U19	1	−5	0
51	Slovan Bratislava U19	1	−5	0
52	Mladost DG U19	1	−5	0
53	Sabah U19	1	−5	0
54	Viking U19	1	−5	0
55	FC Ballkani U19	1	−6	0
56	Lincoln Red Imps U19	1	−6	0