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Sabah U19 v Borussia Dortmund U19

Sabah U19
0–2Full time
Borussia Dortmund U19

UEFA Youth League · TUE 20 OCT · Bank Respublika Arena

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 14:30
Sabah U19 0–2 Borussia Dortmund U19 BORUSSIA DORTMUND U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Borussia Dortmund U19 win67%
The market said93%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.163
The market’s Brier score0.007

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Borussia Dortmund U19 win at 67%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Borussia Dortmund U19 was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 67% now. 0–0 · 17–16–67
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Sabah U19 v Borussia Dortmund U19
  4. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Borussia Dortmund U19 win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
  5. 44′We said Borussia Dortmund U19 at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 55%. 0–0 · 18–27–55
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Sabah U19 0–0 Borussia Dortmund U19
  7. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Borussia Dortmund U19 · On: G. Zisopoulos · Off: L. Reggiani
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Sabah U19 0–0 Borussia Dortmund U19
  9. 47′We said Borussia Dortmund U19 at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 18–28–54
  10. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Borussia Dortmund U19
  11. 55′We expected about 4.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 18–27–55
  12. 56′We said Borussia Dortmund U19 at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 17–34–49
  13. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Borussia Dortmund U19 win: 67% at kick-off, 47% now
  14. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Borussia Dortmund U19
  15. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Sabah U19
  16. 63′We said Borussia Dortmund U19 at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 16–40–44
  17. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Borussia Dortmund U19 · On: T. Burkhardt · Off: T. Faust
  18. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Borussia Dortmund U19 · On: S. Kaymak · Off: M. Adje
  19. 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Borussia Dortmund U19 win 43%)
  20. 69′We said Borussia Dortmund U19 at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 15–47–39
  21. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Sabah U19 · On: A. E. Bakare · Off: U. Salimov
  22. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sabah U19 · On: M. Chodarov · Off: N. Zeynalli
  23. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Borussia Dortmund U19 win: 67% at kick-off, 37% now
  24. 73′We said Borussia Dortmund U19 at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 13–53–34
  25. 75′74′: J. Riedl on the scoresheet for Borussia Dortmund U19. 0–0 · 12–56–32
  26. 75′We published Borussia Dortmund U19 at 67%. Our model now makes it 88%. 0–1 · 1–11–88
  27. 75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Sabah U19 0–1 Borussia Dortmund U19 · J. Riedl
  28. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Borussia Dortmund U19 win: 67% at kick-off, 88% now
  29. 75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Borussia Dortmund U19 win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 56%)
  30. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Borussia Dortmund U19 · On: A. Najdi · Off: T. Degener
  31. 79′We published Borussia Dortmund U19 at 67%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
  32. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sabah U19 · On: I. Khalilov · Off: N. Karimov
  33. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Sabah U19
  34. 83′PENALTY MISSED · 82' Borussia Dortmund U19
  35. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sabah U19 · On: M. Madatov · Off: A. Tanryverdiyev
  36. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sabah U19 · On: E. Mammadov · Off: T. Ahmadov
  37. 87′We published Borussia Dortmund U19 at 67%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
  38. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Borussia Dortmund U19 · On: N. Konig · Off: J. Riedl
  39. 89′A goal for Borussia Dortmund U19 on 88′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  40. 89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Sabah U19 0–2 Borussia Dortmund U19
  41. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Borussia Dortmund U19 win: 67% at kick-off, over 99% now
  42. 90′We published Borussia Dortmund U19 at 67%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  43. 90′Full time, 0–2. We called Borussia Dortmund U19 at 67% — that one lands. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  44. FTFULL TIME Sabah U19 0–2 Borussia Dortmund U19
  45. FTSabah U19 0–2 Borussia Dortmund U19 · Borussia Dortmund U19 win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Borussia Dortmund U19 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sabah U19 17%, draw 16%, Borussia Dortmund U19 67%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Sabah U19 v Borussia Dortmund U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Sabah U19 win17%
Draw16%
Borussia Dortmund U19 win67%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 12:00

RoundLeague phase · matchday 3

VenueBank Respublika Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sabah U19

Borussia Dortmund U19

7Days since last match3

Last match: 13 Oct · UEFA Youth League

Last match: 17 Oct · U19 Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
21Borussia Dortmund U192+43
52Sabah U192−80

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · borussia dortmund u19 winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 15 Oct 05:03 · locked at kick-off
67% The market93%
Us67%
Market93%

We make Borussia Dortmund U19 a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 93%. We are 26 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sabah U19 v Borussia Dortmund U191.23 – 2.81
Form · UEFA Youth League this season · since 8 SeptW0 D0 L2 · W1 D0 L1
Table places · points 0 v 352 v 21
The market · Borussia Dortmund U19 win93% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%70%80%90%100% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 11:42
Our probability · Borussia Dortmund U19 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 65%, 67% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 93% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sabah U19 win17%2%+15
Draw16%5%+11
Borussia Dortmund U19 win67%93%−26
Over 2.5 goals75%83%−8
Both teams to score63%24%+39
Over 1.5 goals90%94%−4
Over 3.5 goals56%71%−15
Sabah U19 or draw33%7%+26
Sabah U19 clean sheet8%––
Borussia Dortmund U19 clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.8%
0123450 2.2 5.1 6.7 6.2 4.6 2.91 2.6 6.4 7.8 6.8 4.8 2.92 4.2 5.0 4.2 2.8 3 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sabah U19 down, Borussia Dortmund U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (90.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Youth League this season · since 8 Sept

SABAH U19

LL0–5 · 0–3

BORUSSIA DORTMUND U19

LW2–3 · 5–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Kairat U192+126
2Akademija Pandev U192+116
3Zrinjski U192+96
4HJK U192+76
5PSG U192+76
6Villarreal U192+66
7Flora III2+66
8PSV U192+66
9Partizani U192+66
10Slavia Praha U192+46
11Real Madrid U192+46
12Žalgiris U192+36
13Feyenoord U192+26
14Real Betis U192+54
15Atlético Madrid U192+34
16Club Brugge U192+24
17Liverpool U192+24
18Lille U192+14
19AEK Athens U192+14
20Super Nova U192+14
21Borussia Dortmund U192+43
22Stuttgart U192+43
23Bayern München U192+33
24Cardiff Metropolitan U192+33
25Manchester United U192+23
26Roma U192+13
27Dinamo Minsk U19203
28Dinamo Tbilisi U19203
29Arsenal U19203
30Lens U19203
31Barcelona U19203
32Aston Villa U192−13
33Porto U192−33
34Viking U192−33
35UNA Strassen U192−33
36Slovan Bratislava U192−43
37Sporting CP U192−11
38Galatasaray U192−11
39Como U192−11
40Cliftonville U192−11
41LASK U192−21
42Internazionale U192−31
43RB Leipzig U192−51
44Shakhtar Donetsk U192−20
45Fenerbahce U192−30
46Thor Akureyri U192−30
47Manchester City U192−40
48HB U192−60
49Napoli U192−60
50Valletta U192−60
51FC Ballkani U192−70
52Sabah U192−80
53Lincoln Red Imps U192−90
54Bodø / Glimt U192−100
55FC Santa Coloma U192−110
56Mladost DG U192−120

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.