Real Betis U19 v Porto U19 prediction · UEFA Youth League

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 17:54

Real Betis U19 5–0 Porto U19 REAL BETIS U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Betis U19 win~~54%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.323

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.382

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Betis U19 win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Real Betis U19 was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–20–26
1′KICK-OFF Real Betis U19 v Porto U19
43′SUBSTITUTION · 40' Porto U19 · On: D. Muxito · Off: D. Cunha
45′A goal for Real Betis U19 on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–8
45′We published Real Betis U19 at 54%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Real Betis U19 win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' Real Betis U19 1–0 Porto U19
45′HALF-TIME Real Betis U19 1–0 Porto U19
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Real Betis U19 win: 54% at kick-off, 75% now
46′SECOND HALF Real Betis U19 1–0 Porto U19
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Porto U19 · On: J. Abreu · Off: E. Granaas
55′54′ and it is 2–0: Real Betis U19 have scored. 2–0 · 94–5–1
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Real Betis U19 2–0 Porto U19
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Real Betis U19 win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
56′We published Real Betis U19 at 54%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
58′Real Betis U19 ahead on 58′ through J. Reyes. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Real Betis U19 3–0 Porto U19
59′We published Real Betis U19 at 54%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Real Betis U19 4–0 Porto U19
61′J. Reyes scores for Real Betis U19 on 60′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
62′We published Real Betis U19 at 54%. Our model now makes it 100%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
63′4 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Porto U19 · On: T. Jamanca · Off: T. Silva
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Porto U19 · On: C. Varela · Off: M. Mide
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Porto U19 · On: Ze Afonso · Off: M. Cunha
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Porto U19
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' F. Ferreira · Porto U19
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Real Betis U19
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Real Betis U19 · On: N. Fernandez · Off: R. Funez
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' C. De Roa · Real Betis U19
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Porto U19
68′🟥 RED CARD · 68' Porto U19
69′A red card for Porto U19 on 68′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 4–0 · 100–0–0
69′🟥 RED CARD · 68' F. Ferreira · Porto U19
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' F. Ferreira · Porto U19
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Porto U19
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Real Betis U19 · On: N. Doronins · Off: J. Reyes
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Real Betis U19 · On: K. Collantes · Off: C. De Roa
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Real Betis U19 · On: K. Bandera · Off: Miguel Angel
72′🟨 YELLOW · 70' C. Varela · Porto U19
76′76′ and it is 5–0: Real Betis U19 have scored. 5–0 · 100–0–0
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Real Betis U19 5–0 Porto U19
78′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Real Betis U19 · On: M. Navarro · Off: R. De Sa Abreu
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Porto U19
83′🟨 YELLOW · 79' T. Jamanca · Porto U19
FTFULL TIME Real Betis U19 5–0 Porto U19
FTReal Betis U19 5–0 Porto U19 · Real Betis U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Real Betis U19 v Porto U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 14:19 · locked at kick-off

Real Betis U19 win54%

Draw20%

Porto U19 win26%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 15:00

VenueCiudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

RefereeM. Marcenaro

Line-ups

Real Betis U19

Porto U19

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Real Betis U19

Porto U19

36Days since last match36

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
19	Porto U19	1	+2	3
33	Real Betis U19	1	0	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Real Betis U19

Formation not confirmed

1 Y. Zhuravskyi

11 R. De Sa Abreu

4 M. Carbonero Garcia

5 C. Macias

3 C. De Roa

8 R. Funez

16 Miguel Angel

10 I. Corralejo Mantero

7 R. Oya

9 J. Reyes

19 M. Pena

Coach · Dani Fragoso

Substitutes

2 · M. Navarro

6 · K. Bandera

12 · D. Obeng

13 · J. Sastre

14 · K. Collantes

15 · R. Guzman

17 · N. Fernandez

18 · F. Batan

20 · N. Doronins

Porto U19

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Nikolov

2 F. Ferreira

3 S. Gomes

4 R. Teixeira

5 M. Cunha

11 E. Granaas

8 B. Lima

6 T. Silva

10 M. Mide

9 E. Ferreira

7 D. Cunha

Coach · Joao Brandao

Substitutes

12 · F. Mendes

13 · H. Froholdt

14 · R. Morais

15 · Ze Afonso

16 · G. Oliveira

17 · J. Abreu

18 · D. Muxito

19 · C. Varela

20 · T. Jamanca

Our number · real betis u19 winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 14:19 · locked at kick-off

54% The market50%

Us54%

~~Market~~50%

We make Real Betis U19 a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Betis U19 v Porto U19~~2.29 – 1.55

~~Last six in UEFA Youth League~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 3~~33 v 19

~~The market · Real Betis U19 win~~50% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · real betis u19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Betis U19 win	54%	50%	+4
Draw	20%	23%	−3
Porto U19 win	26%	27%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	73%	69%	+4
Both teams to score	70%	69%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	89%	86%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	53%	50%	+3
Real Betis U19 or draw	74%	73%	+1
Real Betis U19 clean sheet	22%	–	–
Porto U19 clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.7 3.2 2.7 1 4.8 7.9 5.8 3.0 2 5.7 8.4 6.5 3.4 3 4.3 6.4 4.9 2.6 4 2.5 3.7 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Betis U19 down, Porto U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 978 UEFA Youth League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

UEFA Youth League matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.3% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Betis U19 at home: 3.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Porto U19 away: 2.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.29 goals for Real Betis U19, 1.55 for Porto U19. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~REA 5–0 POR · POR 0–4 REA

Form · last six in UEFA Youth League

REAL BETIS U19

WWWWLD2–0 · 4–0 · 5–0 · 5–1 · 3–5 · 0–0

PORTO U19

DWWLLW2–2 · 4–0 · 4–1 · 0–4 · 0–5 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zrinjski U19	2	+9	6
2	Villarreal U19	2	+6	6
3	PSV U19	2	+6	6
4	Slavia Praha U19	2	+4	6
5	Atlético Madrid U19	2	+3	4
6	Club Brugge U19	2	+2	4
7	Lille U19	2	+1	4
8	HJK U19	1	+6	3
9	PSG U19	1	+5	3
10	Kairat U19	1	+5	3
11	Stuttgart U19	1	+5	3
12	Cardiff Metropolitan U19	1	+4	3
13	Bayern München U19	2	+3	3
14	Akademija Pandev U19	1	+3	3
15	Flora III	1	+3	3
16	Real Madrid U19	1	+3	3
17	Manchester United U19	2	+2	3
18	Roma U19	1	+2	3
19	Porto U19	1	+2	3
20	Partizani U19	1	+2	3
21	Dinamo Minsk U19	1	+1	3
22	Žalgiris U19	1	+1	3
23	Feyenoord U19	1	+1	3
24	Arsenal U19	2	0	3
25	Lens U19	2	0	3
26	Barcelona U19	2	0	3
27	Viking U19	2	−3	3
28	Liverpool U19	1	0	1
29	Como U19	1	0	1
30	AEK Athens U19	1	0	1
31	Cliftonville U19	1	0	1
32	LASK U19	1	0	1
33	Real Betis U19	1	0	1
34	Super Nova U19	1	0	1
35	Sporting CP U19	2	−1	1
36	Galatasaray U19	2	−1	1
37	Internazionale U19	2	−3	1
38	RB Leipzig U19	2	−5	1
39	Dinamo Tbilisi U19	1	−1	0
40	Thor Akureyri U19	1	−1	0
41	Borussia Dortmund U19	1	−1	0
42	Shakhtar Donetsk U19	1	−1	0
43	Aston Villa U19	1	−2	0
44	Fenerbahce U19	1	−2	0
45	Manchester City U19	1	−2	0
46	Valletta U19	1	−2	0
47	FC Santa Coloma U19	1	−3	0
48	HB U19	1	−3	0
49	UNA Strassen U19	1	−4	0
50	Bodø / Glimt U19	1	−5	0
51	Slovan Bratislava U19	1	−5	0
52	Mladost DG U19	1	−5	0
53	Napoli U19	2	−6	0
54	FC Ballkani U19	1	−6	0
55	Sabah U19	2	−8	0
56	Lincoln Red Imps U19	2	−9	0