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Model 1.2

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PSG U19 v Barcelona U19

PSG U19
1–1Full time
Barcelona U19

UEFA Youth League · TUE 20 OCT · Paris Saint-Germain Training Center

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 15:30
PSG U19 1–1 Barcelona U19 PSG U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said PSG U19 win58%
The market said37%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.037
The market’s Brier score0.861

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said PSG U19 win at 58%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: PSG U19 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–20–23
  3. 1′KICK-OFF PSG U19 v Barcelona U19
  4. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' PSG U19 win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
  5. 45′HALF-TIME PSG U19 0–0 Barcelona U19
  6. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' PSG U19 · On: M. Niakate · Off: Y. Idder
  7. 46′SECOND HALF PSG U19 0–0 Barcelona U19
  8. 47′We said PSG U19 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 0–0 · 46–32–22
  9. 51′We said PSG U19 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–34–22
  10. 56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 3.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 42–37–21
  11. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' PSG U19 · On: L. Kana-Biyik · Off: A. Ayari
  12. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' PSG U19 · On: H. M'Futila · Off: D. Olax
  13. 61′We said PSG U19 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–41–20
  14. 62′PSG U19 score on 61′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  15. 62′⚽ GOAL · 61' PSG U19 1–0 Barcelona U19
  16. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' PSG U19 win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
  17. 63′We said PSG U19 at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  18. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Barcelona U19 · On: A. Guerrero · Off: X. Mirangels
  19. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' PSG U19
  20. 74′We said PSG U19 at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  21. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Barcelona U19 · On: N. Diarassouba · Off: O. Gistau
  22. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Barcelona U19 · On: A. Tavares · Off: L. Martinez
  23. 75′Barcelona U19 find the net on 75′. 1–1. 1–1 · 27–58–15
  24. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Barcelona U19 · On: P. Bernabeu · Off: J. Pesquer
  25. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' PSG U19 1–1 Barcelona U19
  26. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' PSG U19 win: 58% at kick-off, 27% now
  27. 75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was PSG U19 win 85%)
  28. 76′We said PSG U19 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–60–14
  29. 77′We said PSG U19 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–62–14
  30. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' PSG U19 · On: E. Ghalleb · Off: M. Meite
  31. 81′We said PSG U19 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–71–11
  32. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' PSG U19 win: 58% at kick-off, 18% now
  33. 84′We said PSG U19 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–79–8
  34. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Barcelona U19 · On: R. Exposito · Off: N. Teixidor
  35. 88′We said PSG U19 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
  36. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' PSG U19 win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
  37. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Barcelona U19
  38. 93′We said PSG U19 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
  39. FTFULL TIME PSG U19 1–1 Barcelona U19
  40. FTPSG U19 1–1 Barcelona U19 · PSG U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

PSG U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: PSG U19 58%, draw 19%, Barcelona U19 23%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on PSG U19 v Barcelona U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

PSG U19 win58%
Draw19%
Barcelona U19 win23%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 13:00

RoundLeague phase · matchday 3

VenueParis Saint-Germain Training Center

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

PSG U19

Barcelona U19

6Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · UEFA Youth League

Last match: 13 Oct · UEFA Youth League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5PSG U192+76
31Barcelona U19203

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · psg u19 winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 15 Oct 05:03 · locked at kick-off
58% The market37%
Us58%
Market37%

We make PSG U19 a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 21 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · PSG U19 v Barcelona U192.36 – 1.42
Form · UEFA Youth League this season · since 9 SeptW2 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L1
Table places · points 6 v 35 v 31
The market · PSG U19 win37% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%40%50%60% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 12:41
Our probability · PSG U19 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
PSG U19 win58%37%+21
Draw19%24%−5
Barcelona U19 win23%39%−16
Over 2.5 goals72%68%+4
Both teams to score68%69%−1
Over 1.5 goals89%84%+5
Over 3.5 goals52%48%+4
PSG U19 or draw77%61%+16
PSG U19 clean sheet25%––
Barcelona U19 clean sheet10%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.8%
0123450 2.5 3.3 2.4 1 5.4 7.8 5.4 2.6 2 6.4 8.8 6.2 3.0 3 5.0 6.9 4.9 2.3 4 3.0 4.1 2.9 5
under 2% 5% 12%+PSG U19 down, Barcelona U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (96.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsBAR 2–1 PSG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Youth League this season · since 9 Sept

PSG U19

WW6–1 · 2–0

BARCELONA U19

LW1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Kairat U192+126
2Akademija Pandev U192+116
3Zrinjski U192+96
4HJK U192+76
5PSG U192+76
6Villarreal U192+66
7Flora III2+66
8PSV U192+66
9Partizani U192+66
10Slavia Praha U192+46
11Real Madrid U192+46
12Žalgiris U192+36
13Feyenoord U192+26
14Real Betis U192+54
15Atlético Madrid U192+34
16Club Brugge U192+24
17Liverpool U192+24
18Lille U192+14
19AEK Athens U192+14
20Super Nova U192+14
21Borussia Dortmund U192+43
22Stuttgart U192+43
23Bayern München U192+33
24Cardiff Metropolitan U192+33
25Manchester United U192+23
26Roma U192+13
27Dinamo Minsk U19203
28Dinamo Tbilisi U19203
29Arsenal U19203
30Lens U19203
31Barcelona U19203
32Aston Villa U192−13
33Porto U192−33
34Viking U192−33
35UNA Strassen U192−33
36Slovan Bratislava U192−43
37Sporting CP U192−11
38Galatasaray U192−11
39Como U192−11
40Cliftonville U192−11
41LASK U192−21
42Internazionale U192−31
43RB Leipzig U192−51
44Shakhtar Donetsk U192−20
45Fenerbahce U192−30
46Thor Akureyri U192−30
47Manchester City U192−40
48HB U192−60
49Napoli U192−60
50Valletta U192−60
51FC Ballkani U192−70
52Sabah U192−80
53Lincoln Red Imps U192−90
54Bodø / Glimt U192−100
55FC Santa Coloma U192−110
56Mladost DG U192−120

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.