Porto U19 v PSV U19 prediction · UEFA Youth League

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 14:30

Porto U19 3–1 PSV U19 PORTO U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Porto U19 win~~48%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.411

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.278

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Porto U19 win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Porto U19 was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–22–31
1′KICK-OFF Porto U19 v PSV U19
34′Porto U19 ahead on 33′ through E. Ferreira. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–18–11
34′⚽ GOAL · 33' Porto U19 1–0 PSV U19 · E. Ferreira
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Porto U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 71% now
34′SUBSTITUTION · 31' PSV U19 · On: R. Olenski · Off: J. Martina
35′We published Porto U19 at 48%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–18–11
35′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 71–18–11
45′HALF-TIME Porto U19 1–0 PSV U19
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' PSV U19
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Porto U19 · On: C. Varela · Off: Gabriel Mec
46′SECOND HALF Porto U19 1–0 PSV U19
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' PSV U19
49′A goal for Porto U19 on 49′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Porto U19 2–0 PSV U19
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Porto U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 92% now
50′We published Porto U19 at 48%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
61′We published Porto U19 at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Porto U19 · On: G. Oliveira · Off: H. Froholdt
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Porto U19
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' PSV U19 · On: M. Mutsers · Off: G. Sabajo
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' PSV U19 · On: D. Ferreira · Off: J. Colaes
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Porto U19
72′PSV U19 score on 72′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 81–16–3
72′We published Porto U19 at 48%. Our model now makes it 81%. 2–1 · 81–16–3
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Porto U19 2–1 PSV U19
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Porto U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 81% now
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Porto U19 · On: A. Miranda · Off: D. Cunha
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Porto U19 · On: J. Abreu · Off: M. Mide
78′We published Porto U19 at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–1
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Porto U19 · On: M. Cunha · Off: Ze Afonso
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Porto U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' PSV U19 · On: D. Shyaka · Off: W. Ostrander Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' PSV U19 · On: D. Shyaka · Off: N. Jovanovic
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Porto U19
93′Porto U19 find the net on 90′. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Porto U19 win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Porto U19 3–1 PSV U19
94′We published Porto U19 at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
95′4 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Porto U19
FTFULL TIME Porto U19 3–1 PSV U19
FTPorto U19 3–1 PSV U19 · Porto U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Porto U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Porto U19 48%, draw 21%, PSV U19 31%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Porto U19 v PSV U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Porto U19 win48%

Draw21%

PSV U19 win31%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 12:00

RoundLeague phase · matchday 3

VenueEstadio Luis Filipe Menezes

Line-ups

Porto U19

PSV U19

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Porto U19

PSV U19

3Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Júniores U19

Last match: 13 Oct · UEFA Youth League

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	PSV U19	2	+6	6
33	Porto U19	2	−3	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Porto U19

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Nikolov

2 H. Froholdt

4 R. Teixeira

3 S. Gomes

5 Ze Afonso

7 Gabriel Mec

8 B. Lima

6 T. Silva

10 M. Mide

9 E. Ferreira

11 D. Cunha

Coach · Joao Brandao

Substitutes

12 · F. Mendes

13 · R. Morais

14 · M. Cunha

15 · G. Oliveira

16 · E. Granaas

17 · J. Abreu

18 · A. Miranda

19 · C. Varela

20 · T. Jamanca

PSV U19

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Kuijsten

2 T. Bens

3 S. Ditmer

4 B. Jonkers

5 J. Martina

6 E. C. Duran

10 N. Jovanovic

8 J. Colaes

7 G. Sabajo

9 W. Ostrander

11 D. Stam

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · T. Smits

14 · R. Olenski

15 · A. Camo

16 · E. Moedt

17 · D. Ferreira

18 · M. Mutsers

19 · D. Shyaka

20 · L. de Vries

21 · M. Ranu

Our number · porto u19 winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 15 Oct 05:03 · locked at kick-off

48% The market57%

Us48%

~~Market~~57%

We make Porto U19 a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Porto U19 v PSV U19~~1.97 – 1.53

~~Form · UEFA Youth League this season · since 8 Sept~~W1 D0 L1 · W2 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 6~~33 v 8

~~The market · Porto U19 win~~57% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Porto U19 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Porto U19 win	48%	57%	−9
Draw	21%	20%	+1
PSV U19 win	31%	23%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	67%	77%	−10
Both teams to score	66%	72%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	86%	88%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	46%	58%	−12
Porto U19 or draw	69%	77%	−8
Porto U19 clean sheet	23%	–	–
PSV U19 clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.4 4.6 3.6 1 6.1 9.0 6.7 3.6 2 6.0 8.5 6.4 3.4 3 4.0 5.6 4.1 2.2 4 2.1 2.8 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Porto U19 down, PSV U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 996 UEFA Youth League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: UEFA Youth League matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.4% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Porto U19 at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). PSV U19 away: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.97 goals for Porto U19, 1.53 for PSV U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Youth League this season · since 8 Sept

PORTO U19

WL3–1 · 0–5

PSV U19

WW1–0 · 6–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kairat U19	2	+12	6
2	Akademija Pandev U19	2	+11	6
3	Zrinjski U19	2	+9	6
4	HJK U19	2	+7	6
5	PSG U19	2	+7	6
6	Villarreal U19	2	+6	6
7	Flora III	2	+6	6
8	PSV U19	2	+6	6
9	Partizani U19	2	+6	6
10	Slavia Praha U19	2	+4	6
11	Real Madrid U19	2	+4	6
12	Žalgiris U19	2	+3	6
13	Feyenoord U19	2	+2	6
14	Real Betis U19	2	+5	4
15	Atlético Madrid U19	2	+3	4
16	Club Brugge U19	2	+2	4
17	Liverpool U19	2	+2	4
18	Lille U19	2	+1	4
19	AEK Athens U19	2	+1	4
20	Super Nova U19	2	+1	4
21	Borussia Dortmund U19	2	+4	3
22	Stuttgart U19	2	+4	3
23	Bayern München U19	2	+3	3
24	Cardiff Metropolitan U19	2	+3	3
25	Manchester United U19	2	+2	3
26	Roma U19	2	+1	3
27	Dinamo Minsk U19	2	0	3
28	Dinamo Tbilisi U19	2	0	3
29	Arsenal U19	2	0	3
30	Lens U19	2	0	3
31	Barcelona U19	2	0	3
32	Aston Villa U19	2	−1	3
33	Porto U19	2	−3	3
34	Viking U19	2	−3	3
35	UNA Strassen U19	2	−3	3
36	Slovan Bratislava U19	2	−4	3
37	Sporting CP U19	2	−1	1
38	Galatasaray U19	2	−1	1
39	Como U19	2	−1	1
40	Cliftonville U19	2	−1	1
41	LASK U19	2	−2	1
42	Internazionale U19	2	−3	1
43	RB Leipzig U19	2	−5	1
44	Shakhtar Donetsk U19	2	−2	0
45	Fenerbahce U19	2	−3	0
46	Thor Akureyri U19	2	−3	0
47	Manchester City U19	2	−4	0
48	HB U19	2	−6	0
49	Napoli U19	2	−6	0
50	Valletta U19	2	−6	0
51	FC Ballkani U19	2	−7	0
52	Sabah U19	2	−8	0
53	Lincoln Red Imps U19	2	−9	0
54	Bodø / Glimt U19	2	−10	0
55	FC Santa Coloma U19	2	−11	0
56	Mladost DG U19	2	−12	0