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Liverpool U19 v Villarreal U19

Liverpool U19

0–0Full time

Villarreal U19

UEFA Youth League · TUE 20 OCT · Liverpool Academy

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 17:31

Liverpool U19 0–0 Villarreal U19 VILLARREAL U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Villarreal U19 win~~40%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.917

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.875

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Villarreal U19 win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Villarreal U19 was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 38–22–40
1′KICK-OFF Liverpool U19 v Villarreal U19
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Villarreal U19
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Liverpool U19
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Villarreal U19
45′SECOND HALF Liverpool U19 0–0 Villarreal U19
46′HALF-TIME Liverpool U19 0–0 Villarreal U19
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Liverpool U19 · On: A. Yeguo · Off: L. Conde
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Villarreal U19 win 34%)
55′We expected about 3.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 30–38–31
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Villarreal U19 win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
63′We said Villarreal U19 at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 27–45–28
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Villarreal U19 · On: S. Rodriguez · Off: A. Guillamon
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Villarreal U19 · On: S. Llopis · Off: M. Roca
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Villarreal U19 · On: Y. Kisak · Off: I. Perez
70′We said Villarreal U19 at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 23–52–24
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Liverpool U19 · On: E. Farkas · Off: L. Eden
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Villarreal U19 win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
76′We said Villarreal U19 at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–19
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Villarreal U19 · On: A. V. Soteras · Off: S. Llopis
81′We said Villarreal U19 at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–72–14
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Villarreal U19 win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
86′We said Villarreal U19 at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–9
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Villarreal U19 · On: M. Kone · Off: R. Garcia Palomar
92′We said Villarreal U19 at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Liverpool U19 0–0 Villarreal U19
FTLiverpool U19 0–0 Villarreal U19 · Villarreal U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Villarreal U19 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Liverpool U19 38%, draw 22%, Villarreal U19 40%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Liverpool U19 v Villarreal U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Liverpool U19 win38%

Draw22%

Villarreal U19 win40%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 15:00

RoundLeague phase · matchday 3

VenueLiverpool Academy

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Liverpool U19

Villarreal U19

6Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · UEFA Youth League

Last match: 13 Oct · UEFA Youth League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Villarreal U19	2	+6	6
19	Liverpool U19	2	+2	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · villarreal u19 winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 15 Oct 05:03 · locked at kick-off

40% The market45%

Us40%

~~Market~~45%

We make Villarreal U19 a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Liverpool U19 v Villarreal U19~~1.79 – 1.83

~~Form · UEFA Youth League this season · since 8 Sept~~W1 D1 L0 · W2 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~19 v 8

~~The market · Villarreal U19 win~~45% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Villarreal U19 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Liverpool U19 win	38%	31%	+7
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Villarreal U19 win	40%	45%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	69%	66%	+3
Both teams to score	69%	67%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	87%	84%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	49%	47%	+2
Liverpool U19 or draw	60%	55%	+5
Liverpool U19 clean sheet	17%	–	–
Villarreal U19 clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.8%

0123450 3.0 5.0 4.6 2.8 1 4.8 8.8 7.8 4.8 2.2 2 4.3 7.6 6.9 4.2 3 2.6 4.6 4.1 2.5 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Liverpool U19 down, Villarreal U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 996 UEFA Youth League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: UEFA Youth League matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.4% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Liverpool U19 at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Villarreal U19 away: 2.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Liverpool U19, 1.83 for Villarreal U19. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Youth League this season · since 8 Sept

LIVERPOOL U19

DW2–2 · 4–2

VILLARREAL U19

WW3–2 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slavia Praha U19	3	+6	9
2	Kairat U19	2	+12	6
3	Akademija Pandev U19	2	+11	6
4	Zrinjski U19	2	+9	6
5	HJK U19	2	+7	6
6	PSG U19	2	+7	6
7	Borussia Dortmund U19	3	+6	6
8	Villarreal U19	2	+6	6
9	Flora III	2	+6	6
10	Partizani U19	2	+6	6
11	PSV U19	3	+4	6
12	Real Madrid U19	2	+4	6
13	Žalgiris U19	2	+3	6
14	Feyenoord U19	2	+2	6
15	Porto U19	3	−1	6
16	Real Betis U19	2	+5	4
17	Atlético Madrid U19	2	+3	4
18	Club Brugge U19	2	+2	4
19	Liverpool U19	2	+2	4
20	Lille U19	2	+1	4
21	AEK Athens U19	2	+1	4
22	Super Nova U19	2	+1	4
23	Stuttgart U19	2	+4	3
24	Bayern München U19	2	+3	3
25	Cardiff Metropolitan U19	2	+3	3
26	Manchester United U19	2	+2	3
27	Roma U19	2	+1	3
28	Dinamo Minsk U19	2	0	3
29	Dinamo Tbilisi U19	2	0	3
30	Arsenal U19	2	0	3
31	Lens U19	2	0	3
32	Barcelona U19	2	0	3
33	Aston Villa U19	2	−1	3
34	Viking U19	2	−3	3
35	UNA Strassen U19	2	−3	3
36	Slovan Bratislava U19	2	−4	3
37	Sporting CP U19	2	−1	1
38	Galatasaray U19	2	−1	1
39	Como U19	2	−1	1
40	Cliftonville U19	2	−1	1
41	LASK U19	2	−2	1
42	Internazionale U19	2	−3	1
43	RB Leipzig U19	2	−5	1
44	Shakhtar Donetsk U19	2	−2	0
45	Thor Akureyri U19	2	−3	0
46	Manchester City U19	2	−4	0
47	Fenerbahce U19	3	−5	0
48	HB U19	2	−6	0
49	Napoli U19	2	−6	0
50	Valletta U19	2	−6	0
51	FC Ballkani U19	2	−7	0
52	Lincoln Red Imps U19	2	−9	0
53	Bodø / Glimt U19	2	−10	0
54	Sabah U19	3	−10	0
55	FC Santa Coloma U19	2	−11	0
56	Mladost DG U19	2	−12	0