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Bayern München U19 v Arsenal U19

Bayern München U19

3–3Full time

Arsenal U19

UEFA Youth League · WED 21 OCT · FC Bayern Campus

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 17:31

Bayern München U19 3–3 Arsenal U19 BAYERN MÜNCHEN U19 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bayern München U19 win~~57%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.033

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.983

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bayern München U19 win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bayern München U19 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–19–24
1′KICK-OFF Bayern München U19 v Arsenal U19
11′Arsenal U19 find the net on 11′. 0–1. 0–1 · 34–21–45
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Bayern München U19 0–1 Arsenal U19
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Bayern München U19 win: 57% at kick-off, 34% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Arsenal U19 win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Bayern München U19 win 55%)
12′We said Bayern München U19 at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–1 · 33–21–45
15′A goal for Bayern München U19 on 15′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 54–22–24
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Bayern München U19 1–1 Arsenal U19
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Bayern München U19 win: 57% at kick-off, 54% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Bayern München U19 win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Arsenal U19 win 46%)
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Arsenal U19
30′Bayern München U19 score on 30′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 76–15–9
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Bayern München U19 2–1 Arsenal U19
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Bayern München U19 win: 57% at kick-off, 76% now
31′We said Bayern München U19 at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 2–1 · 76–15–9
44′Bayern München U19 find the net on 43′. 3–1. 3–1 · 93–6–2
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Bayern München U19 3–1 Arsenal U19
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Bayern München U19 win: 57% at kick-off, 93% now
45′We said Bayern München U19 at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 3–1 · 93–6–2
45′That is 4, and we only asked for 4.0 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 93–6–2
45′HALF-TIME Bayern München U19 3–1 Arsenal U19
46′SECOND HALF Bayern München U19 3–1 Arsenal U19
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Bayern München U19
57′We said Bayern München U19 at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Arsenal U19 · On: J. Ogunnaike · Off: A. Owusu-Gyasi
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Arsenal U19 · On: J. Ogunnaike · Off: A. Owusu-Gyasi
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Bayern München U19 · On: M. Matosevic · Off: B. Olychenko
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Arsenal U19 · On: I. Ibrahim · Off: A. Harriman-Annous
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Arsenal U19 · On: E. Mbala · Off: E. Upson
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Bayern München U19 win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
69′A goal for Arsenal U19 on 69′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 81–16–3
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Bayern München U19 3–2 Arsenal U19
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Bayern München U19 win: 57% at kick-off, 81% now
70′M. Salmon scores for Arsenal U19 on 68′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 82–15–3
71′We said Bayern München U19 at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 3–2 · 82–15–3
72′5 goals already, more than the 4.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 83–15–3
76′We said Bayern München U19 at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 3–2 · 85–13–2
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Bayern München U19 · On: Y. Gashi · Off: N. Codjo-Evora
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Bayern München U19 · On: D. Kim · Off: G. Della Rovere
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Bayern München U19 win: 57% at kick-off, 87% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Arsenal U19 · On: L. Munoz · Off: M. Bernard
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Bayern München U19 · On: F. Egwuatu · Off: B. Assomo
92′Arsenal U19 score on 90′ to make it 3–3. 3–3 · 5–92–3
92′We said Bayern München U19 at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 3–3 · 5–92–3
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Bayern München U19 3–3 Arsenal U19
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Bayern München U19 win: 57% at kick-off, 5% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Bayern München U19 win 96%)
93′We said Bayern München U19 at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 3–3 · 4–94–2
94′That is 6, and we only asked for 4.0 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 3–96–2
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Arsenal U19
FTFULL TIME Bayern München U19 3–3 Arsenal U19
FTBayern München U19 3–3 Arsenal U19 · Bayern München U19 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bayern München U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bayern München U19 57%, draw 19%, Arsenal U19 24%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Bayern München U19 v Arsenal U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Bayern München U19 win57%

Draw19%

Arsenal U19 win24%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 15:00

RoundLeague phase · matchday 3

VenueFC Bayern Campus

RefereeB. Csonka

Line-ups

Bayern München U19

Arsenal U19

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bayern München U19

Arsenal U19

4Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · U19 Bundesliga

Last match: 13 Oct · UEFA Youth League

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
26	Bayern München U19	2	+3	3
32	Arsenal U19	2	0	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bayern München U19

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Podar-Stiube

2 R. Moumouni

4 C. Kiala

5 F. Pavic

3 R. Ajayi

8 E. Osmani

6 B. Olychenko

7 A. Lambe

10 G. Della Rovere

9 B. Assomo

11 N. Codjo-Evora

Coach · Dante

Substitutes

12 · R. Mijatovic

13 · D. Kim

14 · M. Matosevic

16 · M. Maric

17 · Y. Gashi

18 · L. Ruland

19 · F. Egwuatu

20 · W. Imade

Arsenal U19

Formation not confirmed

55 J. Porter

78 A. Owusu-Gyasi

45 T. Julienne

57 E. Upson

85 H. Abubakar

77 T. Murisa

74 M. Hashi

89 M. Salmon

43 A. Harriman-Annous

53 C. O'Neill

65 M. Bernard

Coach · –

Substitutes

38 · B. Clarke

42 · K. Ranson

44 · I. Ibrahim

52 · J. Ogunnaike

64 · I. Tyjon

87 · E. Mbala

90 · E. Nwaneri

96 · J. Maghoma

98 · L. Munoz

Our number · bayern münchen u19 winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

57% The market55%

Us57%

~~Market~~55%

We make Bayern München U19 a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bayern München U19 v Arsenal U19~~2.43 – 1.53

~~Form · UEFA Youth League this season · since 9 Sept~~W1 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 3~~26 v 32

~~The market · Bayern München U19 win~~55% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bayern München U19 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bayern München U19 win	57%	55%	+2
Draw	19%	21%	−2
Arsenal U19 win	24%	24%	0
Over 2.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Both teams to score	71%	72%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	90%	89%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	55%	57%	−2
Bayern München U19 or draw	76%	76%	0
Bayern München U19 clean sheet	22%	–	–
Arsenal U19 clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.3 2.9 2.3 1 4.7 7.3 5.4 2.8 2 5.7 8.4 6.3 3.3 3 4.5 6.7 5.0 2.6 4 2.8 4.1 3.1 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Bayern München U19 down, Arsenal U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (95.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,005 UEFA Youth League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: UEFA Youth League matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.7% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 6.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bayern München U19 at home: 2.33 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Arsenal U19 away: 1.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.43 goals for Bayern München U19, 1.53 for Arsenal U19. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ARS 4–2 BAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Youth League this season · since 9 Sept

BAYERN MÜNCHEN U19

WL6–1 · 0–2

ARSENAL U19

WL2–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slavia Praha U19	3	+6	9
2	PSG U19	3	+7	7
3	Villarreal U19	3	+6	7
4	Atlético Madrid U19	3	+5	7
5	Kairat U19	2	+12	6
6	Akademija Pandev U19	2	+11	6
7	Zrinjski U19	2	+9	6
8	HJK U19	2	+7	6
9	Borussia Dortmund U19	3	+6	6
10	Roma U19	3	+6	6
11	Flora III	2	+6	6
12	Partizani U19	2	+6	6
13	PSV U19	3	+4	6
14	Real Madrid U19	2	+4	6
15	Žalgiris U19	2	+3	6
16	Feyenoord U19	2	+2	6
17	Porto U19	3	−1	6
18	Liverpool U19	3	+2	5
19	AEK Athens U19	3	+1	5
20	Real Betis U19	2	+5	4
21	Club Brugge U19	2	+2	4
22	Lille U19	2	+1	4
23	Super Nova U19	2	+1	4
24	Barcelona U19	3	0	4
25	Como U19	3	0	4
26	Bayern München U19	2	+3	3
27	Cardiff Metropolitan U19	2	+3	3
28	Stuttgart U19	3	+2	3
29	Manchester United U19	3	+1	3
30	Dinamo Minsk U19	2	0	3
31	Dinamo Tbilisi U19	2	0	3
32	Arsenal U19	2	0	3
33	Lens U19	2	0	3
34	Aston Villa U19	2	−1	3
35	Viking U19	2	−3	3
36	UNA Strassen U19	2	−3	3
37	Napoli U19	3	−5	3
38	Slovan Bratislava U19	3	−9	3
39	Sporting CP U19	2	−1	1
40	Galatasaray U19	2	−1	1
41	Cliftonville U19	2	−1	1
42	LASK U19	2	−2	1
43	Internazionale U19	2	−3	1
44	Manchester City U19	3	−4	1
45	RB Leipzig U19	2	−5	1
46	Shakhtar Donetsk U19	2	−2	0
47	Thor Akureyri U19	2	−3	0
48	Fenerbahce U19	3	−5	0
49	HB U19	2	−6	0
50	Valletta U19	2	−6	0
51	FC Ballkani U19	2	−7	0
52	Lincoln Red Imps U19	2	−9	0
53	Sabah U19	3	−10	0
54	Bodø / Glimt U19	3	−11	0
55	FC Santa Coloma U19	2	−11	0
56	Mladost DG U19	2	−12	0