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Union St. Gilloise v Real Sociedad

Union St. Gilloise
1–1Full time
Real Sociedad

UEFA Europa League · THU 15 OCT · Den Dreef Stadium

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 20:30
Union St. Gilloise 1–1 Real Sociedad UNION ST. GILLOISE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Union St. Gilloise win48%
The market said38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.825
The market’s Brier score0.820

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Union St. Gilloise win at 48%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Union St. Gilloise was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Union St. Gilloise v Real Sociedad
  4. 39′7 shots for Union St. Gilloise, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 39–38–23
  5. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' David Hubert · Union St. Gilloise
  6. 41′Union St. Gilloise have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 38–38–23
  7. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Union St. Gilloise win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Union St. Gilloise 0–0 Real Sociedad
  9. 45′SECOND HALF Union St. Gilloise 0–0 Real Sociedad
  10. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Real Sociedad · On: Benat Turrientes · Off: Yangel Herrera
  11. 47′We said Union St. Gilloise at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–42–22
  12. 47′Benat Turrientes scores for Real Sociedad on 46′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–25–64
  13. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Union St. Gilloise win 36%)
  14. 47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Union St. Gilloise 0–1 Real Sociedad · Benat Turrientes
  15. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Union St. Gilloise win: 48% at kick-off, 11% now
  16. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Real Sociedad win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Draw 25%)
  17. 48′We said Union St. Gilloise at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–25–64
  18. 49′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 10–25–65
  19. 52′We said Union St. Gilloise at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
  20. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Union St. Gilloise win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
  21. 56′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 37–41–22 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  22. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Nohim Chibani · Union St. Gilloise
  23. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Union St. Gilloise · On: Denzel De Roeve · Off: Nohim Chibani
  24. 67′We said Union St. Gilloise at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
  25. 68′Union St. Gilloise have had 12 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 4–21–75
  26. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Real Sociedad · On: Takefusa Kubo · Off: Luka Sučić
  27. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Union St. Gilloise · On: Dylan Aquino · Off: Darius Olaru
  28. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Mamadou Sarr · Real Sociedad
  29. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Real Sociedad · On: Pablo Marin · Off: Job Ochieng
  30. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Real Sociedad · On: Ander Barrenetxea · Off: Gonçalo Guedes
  31. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Union St. Gilloise · On: Sekou Abrahame Keita · Off: Mateo Biondic
  32. 89′Sekou Abrahame Keita scores for Union St. Gilloise on 88′. 0–1 · 0–5–95
  33. 89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Union St. Gilloise 1–1 Real Sociedad · Sekou Abrahame Keita
  34. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Real Sociedad win 4%)
  35. 92′Union St. Gilloise have had 16 attempts to 5 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 3–95–2
  36. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Real Sociedad · On: Orri Steinn Óskarsson · Off: Mikel Oyarzabal
  37. FTFULL TIME Union St. Gilloise 1–1 Real Sociedad
  38. FTUnion St. Gilloise 1–1 Real Sociedad · Union St. Gilloise win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Union St. Gilloise are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Union St. Gilloise 48%, draw 27%, Real Sociedad 26%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Union St. Gilloise v Real SociedadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Union St. Gilloise win48%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad win26%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueDen Dreef Stadium

RefereeGoga Kikacheishvili

Line-ups

Union St. Gilloise

3-1-4-2

Real Sociedad

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Union St. Gilloise

Real Sociedad

4Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · Jupiler Pro League

Last match: 11 Oct · La Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Union St. Gilloise1+33
22Real Sociedad1−10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Union St. Gilloise

3-1-4-2

12 H. Koffi

4 N. Chibani

29 M. Sylla

55 N. Havenaar

6 K. Van de Perre

27 L. Patris

23 B. Zeneli

28 D. Olaru

11 Guilherme Henriques da Silva Carvalho

9 M. Biondic

38 R. Mofokeng

Coach · D. Hubert

Substitutes

21 · D. De Roeve

39 · youssef hamoutahar

18 · G. Kavelashvili

43 · Daniel Tshilanda Kabongo

1 · V. Chambaere

20 · D. Aquino

32 · S. Keita

Real Sociedad

4-4-2

13 Unai Marrero

5 Zubeldia

6 Jon Martín

19 M. Sarr

17 Sergio Gómez

12 J. Ochieng

4 Jon Gorrotxategi

21 Y. Herrera

11 Gonçalo Guedes

24 L. Sučić

10 Mikel Oyarzabal

Coach · P. Matarazzo

Substitutes

9 · O. Óskarsson

16 · Jon Pacheco

1 · Álex Remiro

18 · Carlos Soler

8 · Beñat Turrientes

23 · A. Zakharyan

7 · Barrenetxea

3 · Aihen Muñoz

15 · Pablo Marín

29 · Alex Garcia

14 · T. Kubo

22 · Héctor Fort

Our number · union st. gilloise winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off
48% The market38%
Us48%
Market38%

We make Union St. Gilloise a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Union St. Gilloise v Real Sociedad1.48 – 1.01
Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 17 SeptW1 D0 L0 · W0 D0 L1
Table places · points 3 v 05 v 22
The market · Union St. Gilloise win38% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 9 OCT 07:2515 OCT 17:40
Our probability · Union St. Gilloise win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Union St. Gilloise win48%38%+10
Draw27%26%+1
Real Sociedad win26%36%−10
Over 2.5 goals46%60%−14
Both teams to score50%62%−12
Over 1.5 goals72%81%−9
Over 3.5 goals24%40%−16
Union St. Gilloise or draw74%64%+10
Union St. Gilloise clean sheet36%––
Real Sociedad clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%
0123450 8.6 8.0 4.2 1 11.8 12.8 6.3 2.1 2 9.0 9.2 4.7 3 4.5 4.5 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Union St. Gilloise down, Real Sociedad across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 17 Sept

UNION ST. GILLOISE

W3–0

REAL SOCIEDAD

L1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Juventus1+53
2Crystal Palace1+43
3Sparta Praha1+33
4Beşiktaş1+33
5Union St. Gilloise1+33
6Ferencvarosi TC1+23
7Benfica1+23
8Bayer Leverkusen1+23
9OFI1+23
10Bournemouth1+13
11Lyon1+13
12Torreense1+13
13Olympiakos Piraeus1+13
14Red Bull Salzburg1+13
15Sunderland1+13
16Omonia Nicosia1+13
17Sturm Graz101
18Rennes101
19Dinamo Zagreb101
20Hapoel Beer Sheva101
21Jagiellonia1−10
22Real Sociedad1−10
23Anderlecht1−10
24Lillestrom1−10
25Celta Vigo1−10
26AZ Alkmaar1−10
27Levski Sofia1−10
28Celtic1−20
291899 Hoffenheim1−20
30AC Milan1−20
31Celje1−20
32Marseille1−30
33Ararat-Armenia1−30
34Plzen1−30
35Lech Poznan1−40
36NEC Nijmegen1−50

The competition's standings before kick-off.