Home › Football › UEFA Europa League › Union St. Gilloise v Real Sociedad
Back

Union St. Gilloise v Real Sociedad
Union St. Gilloise
Real SociedadUEFA Europa League · THU 15 OCT · Den Dreef Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Union St. Gilloise win at 48%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Union St. Gilloise was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
- 1′KICK-OFF Union St. Gilloise v Real Sociedad
- 39′7 shots for Union St. Gilloise, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 39–38–23
- 40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' David Hubert · Union St. Gilloise
- 41′Union St. Gilloise have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 38–38–23
- 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Union St. Gilloise win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Union St. Gilloise 0–0 Real Sociedad
- 45′SECOND HALF Union St. Gilloise 0–0 Real Sociedad
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Real Sociedad · On: Benat Turrientes · Off: Yangel Herrera
- 47′We said Union St. Gilloise at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–42–22
- 47′Benat Turrientes scores for Real Sociedad on 46′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–25–64
- 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Union St. Gilloise win 36%)
- 47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Union St. Gilloise 0–1 Real Sociedad · Benat Turrientes
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Union St. Gilloise win: 48% at kick-off, 11% now
- 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Real Sociedad win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Draw 25%)
- 48′We said Union St. Gilloise at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–25–64
- 49′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 10–25–65
- 52′We said Union St. Gilloise at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
- 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Union St. Gilloise win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
- 56′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 37–41–22 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
- 59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Nohim Chibani · Union St. Gilloise
- 64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Union St. Gilloise · On: Denzel De Roeve · Off: Nohim Chibani
- 67′We said Union St. Gilloise at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
- 68′Union St. Gilloise have had 12 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 4–21–75
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Real Sociedad · On: Takefusa Kubo · Off: Luka Sučić
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Union St. Gilloise · On: Dylan Aquino · Off: Darius Olaru
- 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Mamadou Sarr · Real Sociedad
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Real Sociedad · On: Pablo Marin · Off: Job Ochieng
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Real Sociedad · On: Ander Barrenetxea · Off: Gonçalo Guedes
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Union St. Gilloise · On: Sekou Abrahame Keita · Off: Mateo Biondic
- 89′Sekou Abrahame Keita scores for Union St. Gilloise on 88′. 0–1 · 0–5–95
- 89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Union St. Gilloise 1–1 Real Sociedad · Sekou Abrahame Keita
- 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Real Sociedad win 4%)
- 92′Union St. Gilloise have had 16 attempts to 5 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 3–95–2
- 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Real Sociedad · On: Orri Steinn Óskarsson · Off: Mikel Oyarzabal
- FTFULL TIME Union St. Gilloise 1–1 Real Sociedad
- FTUnion St. Gilloise 1–1 Real Sociedad · Union St. Gilloise win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassUnion St. Gilloise are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Union St. Gilloise 48%, draw 27%, Real Sociedad 26%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off
Union St. Gilloise win48%
Real Sociedad win26%Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 17:45
RoundLeague stage · matchday 2
VenueDen Dreef Stadium
RefereeGoga Kikacheishvili
Match timeline
All events
Union St. GilloiseMIN
Real SociedadEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Union St. Gilloise
3-1-4-2
Real Sociedad
4-4-2
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Union St. Gilloise
Real Sociedad
Last match: 11 Oct · Jupiler Pro League
Last match: 11 Oct · La Liga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Union St. Gilloise
3-1-4-2
12 H. Koffi
4 N. Chibani
29 M. Sylla
55 N. Havenaar
6 K. Van de Perre
27 L. Patris
23 B. Zeneli
28 D. Olaru
11 Guilherme Henriques da Silva Carvalho
9 M. Biondic
38 R. Mofokeng
Coach · D. Hubert
Substitutes
21 · D. De Roeve
39 · youssef hamoutahar
18 · G. Kavelashvili
43 · Daniel Tshilanda Kabongo
1 · V. Chambaere
20 · D. Aquino
32 · S. Keita
Real Sociedad
4-4-2
13 Unai Marrero
5 Zubeldia
6 Jon Martín
19 M. Sarr
17 Sergio Gómez
12 J. Ochieng
4 Jon Gorrotxategi
21 Y. Herrera
11 Gonçalo Guedes
24 L. Sučić
10 Mikel Oyarzabal
Coach · P. Matarazzo
Substitutes
9 · O. Óskarsson
16 · Jon Pacheco
1 · Álex Remiro
18 · Carlos Soler
8 · Beñat Turrientes
23 · A. Zakharyan
7 · Barrenetxea
3 · Aihen Muñoz
15 · Pablo Marín
29 · Alex Garcia
14 · T. Kubo
22 · Héctor Fort
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Union St. Gilloise
3-1-4-2
12 H. Koffi
4 N. Chibani
29 M. Sylla
55 N. Havenaar
6 K. Van de Perre
27 L. Patris
23 B. Zeneli
28 D. Olaru
11 Guilherme Henriques da Silva Carvalho
9 M. Biondic
38 R. Mofokeng
Coach · D. Hubert
Substitutes
21 · D. De Roeve
39 · youssef hamoutahar
18 · G. Kavelashvili
43 · Daniel Tshilanda Kabongo
1 · V. Chambaere
20 · D. Aquino
32 · S. Keita
Real Sociedad
4-4-2
13 Unai Marrero
5 Zubeldia
6 Jon Martín
19 M. Sarr
17 Sergio Gómez
12 J. Ochieng
4 Jon Gorrotxategi
21 Y. Herrera
11 Gonçalo Guedes
24 L. Sučić
10 Mikel Oyarzabal
Coach · P. Matarazzo
Substitutes
9 · O. Óskarsson
16 · Jon Pacheco
1 · Álex Remiro
18 · Carlos Soler
8 · Beñat Turrientes
23 · A. Zakharyan
7 · Barrenetxea
3 · Aihen Muñoz
15 · Pablo Marín
29 · Alex Garcia
14 · T. Kubo
22 · Héctor Fort
We make Union St. Gilloise a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 38% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise win | 48% | 38% | +10 |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | +1 |
| Real Sociedad win | 26% | 36% | −10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 60% | −14 |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 62% | −12 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 81% | −9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 40% | −16 |
| Union St. Gilloise or draw | 74% | 64% | +10 |
| Union St. Gilloise clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
| Real Sociedad clean sheet | 23% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 17 Sept
UNION ST. GILLOISE
REAL SOCIEDAD
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | +4 | 3 |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 5 | Union St. Gilloise | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | OFI | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Lyon | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Jagiellonia | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 23 | Anderlecht | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 24 | Lillestrom | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 26 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | −2 | 0 |
| 29 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | −2 | 0 |
| 30 | AC Milan | 1 | −2 | 0 |
| 31 | Celje | 1 | −2 | 0 |
| 32 | Marseille | 1 | −3 | 0 |
| 33 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | −3 | 0 |
| 34 | Plzen | 1 | −3 | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 1 | −4 | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | −5 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Juventus
Crystal Palace
Sparta Praha
Beşiktaş
Ferencvarosi TC
Benfica
Bayer Leverkusen
OFI
Bournemouth
Lyon
Torreense
Olympiakos Piraeus
Red Bull Salzburg
Sunderland
Omonia Nicosia
Sturm Graz
Rennes
Dinamo Zagreb
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Jagiellonia
Anderlecht
Lillestrom
Celta Vigo
AZ Alkmaar
Levski Sofia
Celtic
1899 Hoffenheim
AC Milan
Celje
Marseille
Ararat-Armenia
Plzen
Lech Poznan
NEC Nijmegen