Union St. Gilloise v Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction · UEFA Europa League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 20:28

Union St. Gilloise 4–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva UNION ST. GILLOISE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Union St. Gilloise win~~70%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.139

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.149

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Union St. Gilloise win at 70%.
1′Much as we predicted: Union St. Gilloise was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–20–10
1′KICK-OFF Union St. Gilloise v Hapoel Beer Sheva
13′SUBSTITUTION · 13' Union St. Gilloise · Union St. Gilloise
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Nohim Chibani · Union St. Gilloise
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Niv·Yehoshua · Hapoel Beer Sheva
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Union St. Gilloise win: 70% at kick-off, 60% now
30′SUBSTITUTION · 30' Union St. Gilloise · On: Dylan Aquino · Off: Darius Olaru
35′We said Union St. Gilloise at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 58%. 0–0 · 58–30–12
36′7 shots for Union St. Gilloise, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 58–30–12
37′Union St. Gilloise have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 57–31–12
43′We said Union St. Gilloise at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–34–12
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 88–10–2
45′HALF-TIME Union St. Gilloise 1–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva
46′Union St. Gilloise ahead on 45′ through Raul Florucz. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–10–2
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Union St. Gilloise 1–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva · Raul Florucz (penalty)
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Union St. Gilloise win: 70% at kick-off, 88% now
46′SECOND HALF Union St. Gilloise 1–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva
47′We published Union St. Gilloise at 70%. Our model now makes it 88%. 1–0 · 88–10–2
52′🟨 YELLOW · 45+6' zahi ahmed · Hapoel Beer Sheva
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Hapoel Beer Sheva · On: João Victor · Off: Eilel Peretz
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Miguel Vitor · Hapoel Beer Sheva
61′We published Union St. Gilloise at 70%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Union St. Gilloise 2–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Union St. Gilloise win: 70% at kick-off, 99% now
62′Guilherme Smith scores for Union St. Gilloise on 60′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Hapoel Beer Sheva · On: Hamode Kanaan · Off: Forson Amankwah
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Hapoel Beer Sheva · On: Adrián Ugarriza · Off: Igor Zlatanović
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Hapoel Beer Sheva · On: Matan Baltaksa · Off: Miguel Vitor
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Hapoel Beer Sheva · On: Mohamad Abu Rumi · Off: Javon East Corrected
73′We published Union St. Gilloise at 70%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Union St. Gilloise win: 70% at kick-off, over 99% now
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Kamiel Van De Perre · Union St. Gilloise
77′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Hapoel Beer Sheva · On: Amir Chaim·Ganah · Off: guy mizrahi
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Union St. Gilloise 3–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva
78′77′: Dylan Aquino on the scoresheet for Union St. Gilloise, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Union St. Gilloise · On: Daniel Tshilanda Kabongo · Off: Massire Sylla
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Union St. Gilloise · On: Denzel De Roeve · Off: Nohim Chibani
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Union St. Gilloise · On: Kevin Rodriguez · Off: Relebohile Mofokeng
81′Union St. Gilloise ahead on 81′ through Guilherme Smith. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Union St. Gilloise 4–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva · Guilherme Smith
82′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Union St. Gilloise 4–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva
FTUnion St. Gilloise 4–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva · Union St. Gilloise win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Union St. Gilloise are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Union St. Gilloise 70%, draw 20%, Hapoel Beer Sheva 10%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Union St. Gilloise v Hapoel Beer ShevaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Union St. Gilloise win70%

Draw20%

Hapoel Beer Sheva win10%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueMerkur Spielarena

RefereeMikola Balakin

Line-ups

Union St. Gilloise

3-1-4-2

Hapoel Beer Sheva

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Union St. Gilloise

Hapoel Beer Sheva

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · the Belgian Cup

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligat Ha'al

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Union St. Gilloise	2	+3	4
25	Hapoel Beer Sheva	2	−1	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Union St. Gilloise

3-1-4-2

12 H. Koffi

4 N. Chibani

29 M. Sylla

55 N. Havenaar

6 K. Van de Perre

27 L. Patris

28 D. Olaru

23 B. Zeneli

11 Guilherme Henriques da Silva Carvalho

9 M. Biondic

38 R. Mofokeng

Coach · D. Hubert

Substitutes

20 · D. Aquino

1 · V. Chambaere

21 · D. De Roeve

30 · R. Florucz

39 · youssef hamoutahar

18 · G. Kavelashvili

13 · K. Rodríguez

26 · R. Sykes

43 · Daniel Tshilanda Kabongo

32 · S. Keita

Hapoel Beer Sheva

4-3-3

1 O. Marciano

2 G. Mizrahi

4 M. Vítor

12 I. Rotman

5 Pedro Amador

17 A. Forson

28 N. Yehoshua

7 E. Peretz

20 J. East

66 I. Zlatanović

9 Z. Ahmed

Coach · R. Kojok

Substitutes

13 · O. Davidzada

44 · D. Diop

11 · A. Ganah

70 · João Victor

14 · Y. Malede

36 · Y. Shani

90 · A. Ugarriza

3 · M. Baltaxa

45 · M. Abu Rumi

8 · M. Kna'an

34 · M. Wolff

Our number · union st. gilloise winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 22 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

70% The market69%

Us70%

~~Market~~69%

We make Union St. Gilloise a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.1–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Union St. Gilloise v Hapoel Beer Sheva~~2.07 – 0.66

~~Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 1~~12 v 25

~~The market · Union St. Gilloise win~~69% · ours 70%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Union St. Gilloise win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union St. Gilloise win	70%	69%	+1
Draw	20%	19%	+1
Hapoel Beer Sheva win	10%	13%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	51%	61%	−10
Both teams to score	42%	53%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	76%	81%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	29%	41%	−12
Union St. Gilloise or draw	90%	87%	+3
Union St. Gilloise clean sheet	52%	–	–
Hapoel Beer Sheva clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 14.0%

0123450 6.8 4.0 1 13.3 9.2 2.9 2 14.0 9.2 3.0 3 9.6 6.3 2.1 4 5.0 3.3 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Union St. Gilloise down, Hapoel Beer Sheva across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Union St. Gilloise play in Jupiler Pro League, Hapoel Beer Sheva in Ligat Ha'al.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Union St. Gilloise are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

2.07 goals for Union St. Gilloise, 0.66 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 17:15. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 Sept

UNION ST. GILLOISE

WD3–0 · 1–1

HAPOEL BEER SHEVA

DL0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	2	+6	6
2	Bayer Leverkusen	2	+6	6
3	Benfica	2	+5	6
4	Beşiktaş	2	+4	6
5	Bournemouth	2	+4	6
6	Omonia Nicosia	2	+4	6
7	Ferencvarosi TC	2	+3	6
8	Lyon	2	+2	6
9	Sunderland	2	+2	6
10	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	+2	6
11	Sparta Praha	2	+3	4
12	Union St. Gilloise	2	+3	4
13	Rennes	2	+1	4
14	Dinamo Zagreb	2	+1	4
15	Crystal Palace	2	+3	3
16	AC Milan	2	+2	3
17	Jagiellonia	2	+1	3
18	OFI	2	+1	3
19	Torreense	2	0	3
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	0	3
21	Red Bull Salzburg	2	−3	3
22	Real Sociedad	2	−1	1
23	Lillestrom	2	−1	1
24	Levski Sofia	2	−1	1
25	Hapoel Beer Sheva	2	−1	1
26	Sturm Graz	2	−3	1
27	NEC Nijmegen	2	−5	1
28	Celta Vigo	2	−2	0
29	Anderlecht	2	−2	0
30	1899 Hoffenheim	2	−3	0
31	Plzen	2	−4	0
32	Marseille	2	−4	0
33	Celtic	2	−5	0
34	Ararat-Armenia	2	−5	0
35	Celje	2	−5	0
36	Lech Poznan	2	−8	0