Torreense v Sunderland prediction · UEFA Europa League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 20:30

Torreense 1–2 Sunderland SUNDERLAND WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sunderland win~~52%

~~The market said~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.350

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.113

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sunderland win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sunderland was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 19–28–52
1′KICK-OFF Torreense v Sunderland
25′24′: Timur Tutierov on the scoresheet for Sunderland. 0–0 · 19–35–46
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Sunderland win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
38′37′: Volnei Feltes on the scoresheet for Torreense. 0–0 · 18–41–41
38′We said Sunderland at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 59–28–14
38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Torreense 1–0 Sunderland · Volnei Feltes
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Sunderland win: 52% at kick-off, 14% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Torreense win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Sunderland win 14%)
39′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 59–28–13
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Sunderland win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Jonathan Mutombo Mawesi · Torreense
45′HALF-TIME Torreense 1–0 Sunderland
45′SECOND HALF Torreense 1–0 Sunderland
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Trai Hume · Sunderland
51′We said Sunderland at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 65–26–9
56′7 shots for Sunderland, 1 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 67–25–8
59′9 shots for Sunderland, 1 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 69–24–7
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Sunderland · On: Enzo Le Fée · Off: Malick Fofana
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Sunderland · On: Granit Xhaka · Off: Nilson Angulo
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Sunderland · On: Nordi Mukiele · Off: Trai Hume
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Sunderland · On: Reinildo Isnard Mandava · Off: Dayann Methalie
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Torreense · On: Ianique Tavares Stopira · Off: Manuel Pozo
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Torreense · On: David Bruno · Off: Jonathan Mutombo Mawesi
66′We said Sunderland at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 74–22–4
68′We said Sunderland at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 12–64–24
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Torreense 1–1 Sunderland
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Sunderland win: 52% at kick-off, 24% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Torreense win 12%)
69′Sunderland level it on 67′ through Jules Ahoka. 1–1. 1–1 · 11–65–24
69′Sunderland have had 12 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 11–65–24
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Sunderland win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
74′We said Sunderland at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 9–71–19
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Torreense · On: Dany Jean · Off: João Marques
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Torreense · On: L. Quintero · Off: Karem Zoabi
75′Sunderland have had 16 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 9–73–18
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Enzo Le Fée · Sunderland
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Sunderland win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
85′Sunderland have had 20 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 4–88–8
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Nordi Mukiele · Sunderland
93′We published Sunderland at 52%. Our model now makes it 99%. 1–2 · 0–1–99
93′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–1–99
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Sunderland win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Torreense 1–2 Sunderland
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Sunderland win: 52% at kick-off, 99% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Sunderland win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
94′Noah Sadiki scores for Sunderland on 90′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–1–99
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Torreense · On: musa drammeh · Off: Javi Vazquez Corrected
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Torreense · On: musa drammeh · Off: Malik Abubakari
FTFULL TIME Torreense 1–2 Sunderland
FTTorreense 1–2 Sunderland · Sunderland win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sunderland are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Torreense 19%, draw 29%, Sunderland 52%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Torreense v SunderlandBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Torreense win19%

Draw29%

Sunderland win52%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueEstádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa

RefereeEnea Jorgji

Line-ups

Torreense

4-2-3-1

Sunderland

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Torreense

Sunderland

5Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda Liga

Last match: 10 Oct · the English Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Torreense	1	+1	3
15	Sunderland	1	+1	3

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Lyon v Crystal Palace, Torreense v Sunderland, and more: Europa League – liveThe Guardian · 15 Oct 16:30 · Lyon, Crystal Palace, Torreense, Sunderland

The Portuguese second-tier team hosting Sunderland in EuropeBBC Sport · 15 Oct 08:30 · Sunderland

‘Perhaps this frustration hasn’t been completely processed’ – Marseille manager Bruno Genesio on Sunderland summer target Igor Paixão difficult start to the seaGet French Football News · 14 Oct 14:29 · Marseille, Sunderland Sunderland hope to enjoy warmth in Portugal after 53 years awayThe Guardian · 14 Oct 12:00 · Sunderland, Torreense

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Torreense

4-2-3-1

1 Lucas Paes

45 J. Mutombo

5 M. Diadie

4 Volnei Feltes

23 Javi Vázquez

6 A. Oudrhiri

8 Alejandro Alfaro

11 Manu Pozo

33 João Marques

19 K. Zoabi

27 M. Abubakari

Coach · Luís Tralhão

Substitutes

2 · Stopira

29 · L. Quintero

7 · D. Jean

53 · Rodrigo Guerreiro

17 · M. Drammeh

22 · David Bruno

44 · S. Henriksen

3 · Juan María Alcedo

14 · Jorge Aguirre

31 · Adriel

86 · Gustavo Sousa Alhinho Alves Rijo

75 · Marco André Moura Silva

Sunderland

4-2-3-1

22 R. Roefs

32 T. Hume

13 L. O'Nien

15 O. Alderete

6 D. Methalie

29 Jules Ahoka

27 N. Sadiki

10 N. Angulo

11 C. Rigg

39 M. Fofana

57 Timur Tuterov

Coach · R. Le Bris

Substitutes

9 · B. Brobbey

4 · K. Danso

19 · H. Diarra

28 · E. Le Fée

17 · Reinildo

21 · S. Moore

20 · N. Mukiele

77 · T. Proctor

47 · T. Ogunsuyi

40 · J. Whittaker

34 · G. Xhaka

48 · Jenson Jones

Our number · sunderland winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 12 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

52% The market73%

Us52%

~~Market~~73%

We make Sunderland a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 21 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Torreense v Sunderland~~0.71 – 1.36

~~Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 3~~12 v 15

~~The market · Sunderland win~~73% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sunderland win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 52% now. The market has gone from 68% to 73% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Torreense win	19%	10%	+9
Draw	29%	17%	+12
Sunderland win	52%	73%	−21
Over 2.5 goals	34%	59%	−25
Both teams to score	38%	48%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	61%	80%	−19
Over 3.5 goals	15%	38%	−23
Torreense or draw	48%	27%	+21
Torreense clean sheet	26%	–	–
Sunderland clean sheet	49%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 16.8%

0123450 13.1 16.8 11.7 5.3 1 8.6 12.6 8.3 3.7 2 3.2 4.3 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Torreense down, Sunderland across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Torreense play in Segunda Liga, Sunderland in the English Premier League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Torreense are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

0.71 goals for Torreense, 1.36 for Sunderland. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 Sept

TORREENSE

W2–1

SUNDERLAND

W1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	1	+5	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	+4	3
3	Sparta Praha	1	+3	3
4	Beşiktaş	1	+3	3
5	Union St. Gilloise	1	+3	3
6	Ferencvarosi TC	1	+2	3
7	Benfica	1	+2	3
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	+2	3
9	OFI	1	+2	3
10	Bournemouth	1	+1	3
11	Lyon	1	+1	3
12	Torreense	1	+1	3
13	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	+1	3
14	Red Bull Salzburg	1	+1	3
15	Sunderland	1	+1	3
16	Omonia Nicosia	1	+1	3
17	Sturm Graz	1	0	1
18	Rennes	1	0	1
19	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0	1
20	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0	1
21	Jagiellonia	1	−1	0
22	Real Sociedad	1	−1	0
23	Anderlecht	1	−1	0
24	Lillestrom	1	−1	0
25	Celta Vigo	1	−1	0
26	AZ Alkmaar	1	−1	0
27	Levski Sofia	1	−1	0
28	Celtic	1	−2	0
29	1899 Hoffenheim	1	−2	0
30	AC Milan	1	−2	0
31	Celje	1	−2	0
32	Marseille	1	−3	0
33	Ararat-Armenia	1	−3	0
34	Plzen	1	−3	0
35	Lech Poznan	1	−4	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	−5	0