Sturm Graz v Marseille prediction · UEFA Europa League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 20:28

Sturm Graz 1–0 Marseille MARSEILLE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Marseille win~~56%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.995

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.910

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Marseille win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: Marseille was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 21–23–56
1′KICK-OFF Sturm Graz v Marseille
12′We said Marseille at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 46–25–29
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Sturm Graz 1–0 Marseille
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Marseille win: 56% at kick-off, 29% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Sturm Graz win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Marseille win 54%)
13′Oumar Diakité scores for Sturm Graz on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 46–25–29
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Marseille win: 56% at kick-off, 26% now
25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Angel Gomes · Marseille
27′We said Marseille at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 50–26–24
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 51–26–23
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Oumar Diakité · Sturm Graz
39′We said Marseille at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 53–27–19
45′SECOND HALF Sturm Graz 1–0 Marseille
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Marseille · On: Himad Abdelli · Off: Angel Gomes
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Marseille win: 56% at kick-off, 16% now
46′HALF-TIME Sturm Graz 1–0 Marseille
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Marseille · On: Igor Paixão · Off: Neal Maupay
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sturm Graz · On: Belmin Beganovic · Off: Oumar Diakité
51′We said Marseille at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 59–27–14
62′We said Marseille at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 65–26–9
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Luca Weinhandl · Sturm Graz
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Marseille · On: Pierre-Emile Højbjerg · Off: Geoffrey Kondogbia
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Marseille · On: CJ Egan-Riley · Off: Nayef Aguerd
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Marseille win: 56% at kick-off, 6% now
73′We said Marseille at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 74–21–4
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Amine Gouiri · Marseille
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Marseille · On: Timothy Weah · Off: Kelyann Bezahaf
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Arjan Malić · Sturm Graz
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Sturm Graz · On: Albert Vallci · Off: Jacob Peter Hödl
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Sturm Graz · On: Julian Halwachs · Off: Valmir Matoshi
92′Full time, 1–0. We called Marseille at 56% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–0 · 100–0–0
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Bamo Meite · Marseille
FTFULL TIME Sturm Graz 1–0 Marseille
FTSturm Graz 1–0 Marseille · Marseille win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Marseille are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sturm Graz 21%, draw 23%, Marseille 56%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Sturm Graz v MarseilleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Sturm Graz win21%

Draw23%

Marseille win56%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueStadion Graz-Liebenau

RefereeNenad Minakovic

Line-ups

Sturm Graz

3-4-1-2

Marseille

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sturm Graz

Marseille

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

Last match: 18 Oct · the French Ligue 1

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
26	Sturm Graz	2	−3	1
32	Marseille	2	−4	0

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Marseille predicted XI v Sturm Graz: Amine Gouiri to start, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg in contentionGet French Football News · 22 Oct 09:53 · Marseille, Sturm Graz

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sturm Graz

3-4-1-2

22 A. Helac

23 A. Malic

2 J. Quarshie

30 P. Koller

43 Jacob Peter Hödl

4 J. Gorenc Stankovič

78 V. Matoshi

27 L. Balbo

39 Luca Weinhandl

19 S. Seidl

14 O. Diakité

Coach · F. Ingolitsch

Substitutes

26 · B. Beganović

25 · M. Grgic

40 · J. Halwachs

11 · A. Kayombo

41 · E. Lorenz

21 · P. Petrović

5 · A. Vallci

32 · C. Wiener-Pucher

Marseille

4-2-3-1

12 J. de Lange

74 K. Bezahaf

18 B. Meité

21 N. Aguerd

25 U. Garcia

42 Nouhoum Kamissoko

19 G. Kondogbia

48 K. Abdallah

7 A. Gomes

9 A. Gouiri

11 N. Maupay

Coach · Bruno Genesio

Substitutes

23 · P. Højbjerg

43 · T. Mmadi

6 · T. Nnadi

14 · Igor Paixão

22 · T. Weah

44 · Antoine Valero

8 · H. Abdelli

77 · A. Harit

33 · Emerson

4 · C. Egan-Riley

41 · Ibrahim Gomis

40 · J. Van Neck

Our number · marseille winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 22 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

56% The market51%

Us56%

~~Market~~51%

We make Marseille a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sturm Graz v Marseille~~1.08 – 1.91

~~Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 Sept~~W0 D1 L1 · W0 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 0~~26 v 32

~~The market · Marseille win~~51% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Marseille win The market, margin stripped

Published at 57%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sturm Graz win	21%	24%	−3
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Marseille win	56%	51%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	58%	58%	0
Both teams to score	57%	59%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	80%	0
Over 3.5 goals	35%	37%	−2
Sturm Graz or draw	44%	49%	−5
Sturm Graz clean sheet	15%	–	–
Marseille clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.3 9.2 9.1 5.8 2.8 1 5.1 10.7 9.9 6.3 3.0 2 2.9 5.6 5.4 3.4 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sturm Graz down, Marseille across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Sturm Graz play in the Austrian Bundesliga, Marseille in the French Ligue 1.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Sturm Graz are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Sturm Graz, 1.91 for Marseille. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 17:15. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 Sept

STURM GRAZ

DL0–0 · 0–3

MARSEILLE

LL1–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	2	+6	6
2	Bayer Leverkusen	2	+6	6
3	Benfica	2	+5	6
4	Beşiktaş	2	+4	6
5	Bournemouth	2	+4	6
6	Omonia Nicosia	2	+4	6
7	Ferencvarosi TC	2	+3	6
8	Lyon	2	+2	6
9	Sunderland	2	+2	6
10	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	+2	6
11	Sparta Praha	2	+3	4
12	Union St. Gilloise	2	+3	4
13	Rennes	2	+1	4
14	Dinamo Zagreb	2	+1	4
15	Crystal Palace	2	+3	3
16	AC Milan	2	+2	3
17	Jagiellonia	2	+1	3
18	OFI	2	+1	3
19	Torreense	2	0	3
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	0	3
21	Red Bull Salzburg	2	−3	3
22	Real Sociedad	2	−1	1
23	Lillestrom	2	−1	1
24	Levski Sofia	2	−1	1
25	Hapoel Beer Sheva	2	−1	1
26	Sturm Graz	2	−3	1
27	NEC Nijmegen	2	−5	1
28	Celta Vigo	2	−2	0
29	Anderlecht	2	−2	0
30	1899 Hoffenheim	2	−3	0
31	Plzen	2	−4	0
32	Marseille	2	−4	0
33	Celtic	2	−5	0
34	Ararat-Armenia	2	−5	0
35	Celje	2	−5	0
36	Lech Poznan	2	−8	0