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Rennes v OFI

Rennes
2–1Full time
OFI

UEFA Europa League · THU 15 OCT · Roazhon Park

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 22:30
Rennes 2–1 OFI RENNES WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Rennes win78%
The market said79%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.075
The market’s Brier score0.068

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 34 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Rennes win at 78%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Rennes was 78% before kick-off and our model makes it 78% now. 0–0 · 78–14–9
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Rennes v OFI
  4. 10′We said Rennes at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 53%. 0–1 · 53–22–25
  5. 10′OFI score on 10′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 53–22–25
  6. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Rennes 0–1 OFI
  7. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Rennes win: 78% at kick-off, 53% now
  8. 18′We said Rennes at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–1 · 49–24–27
  9. 19′7 shots for Rennes, 1 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 48–24–27
  10. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Rennes win: 78% at kick-off, 48% now
  11. 21′Rennes have had 8 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 47–25–28
  12. 26′We said Rennes at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–1 · 44–26–30
  13. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 0–1 · 42–27–31
  14. 34′We said Rennes at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–1 · 39–28–33
  15. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Rennes win: 78% at kick-off, 38% now
  16. 42′We said Rennes at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–30–37
  17. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Krešimir Krizmanić · OFI
  18. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' OFI win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Rennes win 32%)
  19. 45′SECOND HALF Rennes 0–1 OFI
  20. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' OFI · On: Giannis Apostolakis · Off: Taxiarchis Fountas
  21. 46′HALF-TIME Rennes 0–1 OFI
  22. 48′We said Rennes at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–31–40
  23. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Rennes win: 78% at kick-off, 28% now
  24. 53′Rennes have had 12 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 25–31–43
  25. 54′We said Rennes at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–31–44
  26. 60′We said Rennes at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–32–49
  27. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Lorenzo Dickmann · OFI
  28. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Rennes win: 78% at kick-off, 18% now
  29. 66′We said Rennes at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–31–55
  30. 67′Rennes have had 16 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 14–30–56
  31. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal · Rennes
  32. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rennes · On: Eliezer Mayenda · Off: Ludovic Blas
  33. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Rennes · On: Boulaye Dia · Off: Valentin Rongier
  34. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' OFI · On: Zisis Karachalios · Off: Andreas Bouchalakis
  35. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' OFI · On: Aitor Cantalapiedra · Off: Kenan Kodro
  36. 72′We said Rennes at 78%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–28–62
  37. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Rennes win: 78% at kick-off, 8% now
  38. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Rennes 1–1 OFI
  39. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Rennes win: 78% at kick-off, 32% now
  40. 76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was OFI win 8%)
  41. 77′Rennes level it on 76′ through Mahamadou Nagida. 1–1. 1–1 · 30–62–8
  42. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Rennes win: 78% at kick-off, 28% now
  43. 79′Rennes have had 20 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 26–67–7
  44. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Rennes · On: Issa Soumaré · Off: Mousa Al-Tamari
  45. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Rennes · On: Bryan Reynolds · Off: Przemysław Frankowski
  46. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Rennes · On: Djaoui Cissé · Off: Sebastian Szymański
  47. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Mahdi Camara · Rennes
  48. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' OFI · On: Giannis Theodosoulakis · Off: Thiago Nuss
  49. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Rennes win: 78% at kick-off, 18% now
  50. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' OFI · On: Borja González · Off: Lorenzo Dickmann
  51. 90′We published Rennes at 78%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–1 · 98–2–0
  52. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Rennes 2–1 OFI
  53. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Rennes win: 78% at kick-off, 98% now
  54. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Rennes win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
  55. 91′Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal scores for Rennes on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 98–2–0
  56. FTFULL TIME Rennes 2–1 OFI
  57. FTRennes 2–1 OFI · Rennes win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rennes are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rennes 78%, draw 14%, OFI 8%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Rennes v OFIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Rennes win78%
Draw14%
OFI win8%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueRoazhon Park

RefereeAndrea Colombo

Line-ups

Rennes

4-3-3

OFI

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rennes

OFI

4Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · the French Ligue 1

Last match: 10 Oct · Super League 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9OFI1+23
18Rennes101

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rennes

4-3-3

30 B. Samba

95 P. Frankowski

4 C. Cresswell

48 A. Ait Boudlal

18 M. Nagida

17 S. Szymański

21 V. Rongier

45 M. Camara

10 L. Blas

9 E. Lepaul

11 Mousa Tamari

Coach · F. Haise

Substitutes

28 · A. Thomasson

90 · I. Soumaré

24 · A. Rouault

14 · B. Reynolds

5 · Gonçalo Oliveira

70 · A. Nordin

26 · Q. Merlin

12 · Eliezer Mayenda

16 · N. Lemaître

22 · B. Dia

6 · D. Cissé

60 · Kilian Belazzoug

OFI

3-4-3

31 N. Christogeorgos

15 A. Poungouras

43 D. Nikolaou

2 K. Krizmanić

24 L. Dickmann

14 T. Androutsos

41 A. Bouchalakis

3 N. Athanasiou

11 T. Fountas

19 K. Kodro

18 T. Nuss

Coach · C. Kontis

Substitutes

10 · Aitor Cantalapiedra

17 · Borja González

8 · G. Kanellópoulos

6 · Z. Karachalios

13 · P. Katsikas

90 · Pavlos Kenourgiakis

5 · K. Kostoulas

1 · K. Lilo

30 · T. Romano

21 · G. Apostolakis

71 · Thanasis Sitmalidis

46 · G. Theodosoulakis

Our number · rennes winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 00:27 · locked at kick-off
78% The market79%
Us78%
Market79%

We make Rennes a 78% chance to win. The market has them at 79%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.8–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Rennes v OFI2.78 – 0.82
Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 20 AugW0 D1 L0 · W3 D0 L0
Table places · points 1 v 318 v 9
The market · Rennes win79% · ours 78%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
70%75%80%85% 9 OCT 07:2515 OCT 19:53
Our probability · Rennes win The market, margin stripped

Published at 77%, 78% now. The market has gone from 75% to 79% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Rennes win78%79%−1
Draw14%14%0
OFI win8%7%+1
Over 2.5 goals70%67%+3
Both teams to score53%48%+5
Over 1.5 goals88%84%+4
Over 3.5 goals49%46%+3
Rennes or draw92%93%−1
Rennes clean sheet44%––
OFI clean sheet6%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.5%
0123450 2.9 2.0 1 7.4 6.4 2.6 2 10.5 8.7 3.6 3 9.8 8.0 3.3 4 6.8 5.6 2.3 5 3.8 3.1
under 2% 5% 12%+Rennes down, OFI across0–5 goals a side shown (93.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 20 Aug

RENNES

D0–0

OFI

WWW3–0 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Juventus1+53
2Crystal Palace1+43
3Sparta Praha1+33
4Beşiktaş1+33
5Union St. Gilloise1+33
6Ferencvarosi TC1+23
7Benfica1+23
8Bayer Leverkusen1+23
9OFI1+23
10Bournemouth1+13
11Lyon1+13
12Torreense1+13
13Olympiakos Piraeus1+13
14Red Bull Salzburg1+13
15Sunderland1+13
16Omonia Nicosia1+13
17Sturm Graz101
18Rennes101
19Dinamo Zagreb101
20Hapoel Beer Sheva101
21Jagiellonia1−10
22Real Sociedad1−10
23Anderlecht1−10
24Lillestrom1−10
25Celta Vigo1−10
26AZ Alkmaar1−10
27Levski Sofia1−10
28Celtic1−20
291899 Hoffenheim1−20
30AC Milan1−20
31Celje1−20
32Marseille1−30
33Ararat-Armenia1−30
34Plzen1−30
35Lech Poznan1−40
36NEC Nijmegen1−50

The competition's standings before kick-off.