Red Bull Salzburg v AC Milan prediction · UEFA Europa League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 20:30

Red Bull Salzburg 0–4 AC Milan AC MILAN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AC Milan win~~51%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.364

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.389

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AC Milan win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: AC Milan was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 25–24–51
1′KICK-OFF Red Bull Salzburg v AC Milan
15′AC Milan find the net on 15′. 0–0 · 25–27–48
22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Omari Hutchinson · AC Milan
23′We published AC Milan at 51%. Our model now makes it 76%. 0–1 · 8–17–76
23′⚽ GOAL · 15' Red Bull Salzburg 0–1 AC Milan · Alphadjo Cissè (assist Omari Hutchinson)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' AC Milan win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 7–17–76
33′AC Milan ahead on 32′ through Alphadjo Cissè. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–93
33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Red Bull Salzburg 0–2 AC Milan · Alphadjo Cissè
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' AC Milan win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
34′We published AC Milan at 51%. Our model now makes it 93%. 0–2 · 1–5–93
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Valentin Zabransky · Red Bull Salzburg
44′We published AC Milan at 51%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
45′HALF-TIME Red Bull Salzburg 0–2 AC Milan
45′SECOND HALF Red Bull Salzburg 0–2 AC Milan
50′49′: Alphadjo Cissè on the scoresheet for AC Milan. 0–2 · 1–4–95
50′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Red Bull Salzburg 0–3 AC Milan · Alphadjo Cissè
57′We published AC Milan at 51%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Red Bull Salzburg · On: Gaoussou Diakité · Off: Sota Kitano
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' AC Milan · On: Gonçalo Ramos · Off: Francesco Camarda
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Red Bull Salzburg · On: Yorbe Vertessen · Off: Edmund Baidoo
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' AC Milan · On: Christian Pulisic · Off: Alphadjo Cissè
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' AC Milan · On: Luka Modrić · Off: Adrien Rabiot
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' AC Milan · On: Filippo Terracciano · Off: Fikayo Tomori
73′72′: Gonçalo Ramos on the scoresheet for AC Milan, making it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Red Bull Salzburg 0–4 AC Milan · Gonçalo Ramos
74′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Red Bull Salzburg · On: Damir Redzic · Off: Jesper Lindstrom
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Red Bull Salzburg · On: Aboubacar Sidiki Camara · Off: Haris Tabaković
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' AC Milan · On: Sankhoun Diawara · Off: Strahinja Pavlovic
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Red Bull Salzburg · On: Tim Drexler · Off: Leandro Morgalla
84′🟥 RED CARD · 84' AC Milan
85′A red card for AC Milan on 83′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Red Bull Salzburg 0–4 AC Milan
FTRed Bull Salzburg 0–4 AC Milan · AC Milan win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AC Milan are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Red Bull Salzburg 24%, draw 25%, AC Milan 51%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Red Bull Salzburg v AC MilanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Red Bull Salzburg win24%

Draw25%

AC Milan win51%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueRed Bull Arena

RefereeHoratiu Fesnic

Line-ups

Red Bull Salzburg

4-2-3-1

AC Milan

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Red Bull Salzburg

AC Milan

5Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

Last match: 11 Oct · the Italian Serie A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Red Bull Salzburg	1	+1	3
30	AC Milan	1	−2	0

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Amorim on Milan tactical changes, fresh chance for Tomori and CamardaFootball Italia · 15 Oct 17:19 · AC Milan Europa League line-ups: RB Salzburg vs. MilanFootball Italia · 15 Oct 16:35 · AC Milan

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Red Bull Salzburg

4-2-3-1

52 Christian Zawieschitzky

39 L. Morgalla

44 K. Boma

47 Valentin Zabransky

31 D. Schmid

32 A. Barry

15 B. Mazurek

35 J. Lindstrøm

8 S. Kitano

20 E. Baidoo

9 H. Tabaković

Coach · D. Röhl

Substitutes

30 · G. Diakité

21 · T. Drexler

33 · A. Camara

1 · C. Früchtl

13 · F. Krätzig

22 · S. Lainer

4 · J. Mellberg

23 · D. Redzic

41 · Nikola Šarčević

7 · U. Tohumcu

11 · Y. Vertessen

AC Milan

3-4-2-1

16 M. Maignan

23 F. Tomori

5 K. De Winter

31 S. Pavlović

20 O. Hutchinson

30 A. Jashari

12 A. Rabiot

33 D. Bartesaghi

8 R. Loftus-Cheek

70 A. Cissè

73 F. Camarda

Coach · Ruben Amorim

Substitutes

13 · S. Bocoum

2 · P. Estupiñán

34 · Mario Gila

14 · L. Modrić

22 · Diego Moreira

80 · Y. Musah

11 · C. Pulišić

9 · Gonçalo Ramos

42 · F. Terracciano

96 · L. Torriani

21 · S. Chukwueze

28 · C. Comotto

Our number · ac milan winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 00:27 · locked at kick-off

51% The market49%

Us51%

~~Market~~49%

We make AC Milan a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Red Bull Salzburg v AC Milan~~1.11 – 1.70

~~Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 6 Aug~~W4 D1 L0 · W0 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 0~~14 v 30

~~The market · AC Milan win~~49% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AC Milan win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 51% now. The market has gone from 52% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Red Bull Salzburg win	24%	26%	−2
Draw	25%	25%	0
AC Milan win	51%	49%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	53%	59%	−6
Both teams to score	55%	61%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	77%	79%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	38%	−7
Red Bull Salzburg or draw	49%	51%	−2
Red Bull Salzburg clean sheet	18%	–	–
AC Milan clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.4 9.9 8.7 4.9 2.1 1 6.3 11.7 9.7 5.5 2.3 2 3.7 6.3 5.4 3.0 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Red Bull Salzburg down, AC Milan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Red Bull Salzburg play in the Austrian Bundesliga, AC Milan in the Italian Serie A.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Red Bull Salzburg are at home.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Red Bull Salzburg, 1.70 for AC Milan. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ACM 4–0 RED · RED 1–1 ACM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 6 Aug

RED BULL SALZBURG

WDWWW1–0 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–0

AC MILAN

L0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	1	+5	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	+4	3
3	Sparta Praha	1	+3	3
4	Beşiktaş	1	+3	3
5	Union St. Gilloise	1	+3	3
6	Ferencvarosi TC	1	+2	3
7	Benfica	1	+2	3
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	+2	3
9	OFI	1	+2	3
10	Bournemouth	1	+1	3
11	Lyon	1	+1	3
12	Torreense	1	+1	3
13	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	+1	3
14	Red Bull Salzburg	1	+1	3
15	Sunderland	1	+1	3
16	Omonia Nicosia	1	+1	3
17	Sturm Graz	1	0	1
18	Rennes	1	0	1
19	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0	1
20	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0	1
21	Jagiellonia	1	−1	0
22	Real Sociedad	1	−1	0
23	Anderlecht	1	−1	0
24	Lillestrom	1	−1	0
25	Celta Vigo	1	−1	0
26	AZ Alkmaar	1	−1	0
27	Levski Sofia	1	−1	0
28	Celtic	1	−2	0
29	1899 Hoffenheim	1	−2	0
30	AC Milan	1	−2	0
31	Celje	1	−2	0
32	Marseille	1	−3	0
33	Ararat-Armenia	1	−3	0
34	Plzen	1	−3	0
35	Lech Poznan	1	−4	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	−5	0