Plzen v Levski Sofia prediction · UEFA Europa League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 23:00

Plzen 1–2 Levski Sofia PLZEN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Plzen win~~49%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.904

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.992

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Plzen win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Plzen was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–27–23
1′KICK-OFF Plzen v Levski Sofia
21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Mazire Soula · Levski Sofia
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Plzen win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
44′We said Plzen at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–26–62
44′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 12–26–62
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Plzen 0–1 Levski Sofia
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Plzen win: 49% at kick-off, 12% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Levski Sofia win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Plzen win 40%)
45′Levski Sofia ahead on 44′ through Francisco Everton Mota de Castro. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–26–62
45′SECOND HALF Plzen 0–1 Levski Sofia
46′HALF-TIME Plzen 0–1 Levski Sofia
52′We said Plzen at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–65
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Plzen win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Levski Sofia · On: Armstrong Oko-Flex · Off: Mazire Soula
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Plzen · On: Salim Fago Lawal · Off: Denis Višinský
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Plzen · On: Stefan Pirgic · Off: Patrik Hrošovský
62′We said Plzen at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–54–17
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Plzen 1–1 Levski Sofia
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Plzen win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Levski Sofia win 71%)
64′Christopher Kabongo scores for Plzen on 63′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 28–56–16
65′Christopher Kabongo scores for Plzen on 62′. 1–2 · 5–22–73
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Plzen 1–2 Levski Sofia
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Plzen win: 49% at kick-off, 5% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Levski Sofia win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 57%)
66′65′: Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno on the scoresheet for Levski Sofia, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 5–22–74
67′We said Plzen at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–74
68′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 4–21–75
72′11 shots for Plzen, 6 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 3–19–78
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Levski Sofia · On: Akram Bouras · Off: Francisco Everton Mota de Castro
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Plzen · On: Baboucarr Faal · Off: Tomáš Ladra
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Plzen · On: Alexandr Sojka · Off: tobias paliscak
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Plzen · On: Matěj Vydra · Off: Christopher Kabongo
82′Plzen have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 1–11–89
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Levski Sofia · On: Juan Esteban Perea Sanchez · Off: Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Levski Sofia · On: Álex Centelles · Off: Mehdi Moubarik
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Stefan Pirgic · Plzen
94′Full time, 1–2. We called Plzen at 49% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Plzen 1–2 Levski Sofia
FTPlzen 1–2 Levski Sofia · Plzen win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Plzen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Plzen 49%, draw 27%, Levski Sofia 23%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Plzen v Levski SofiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Plzen win49%

Draw27%

Levski Sofia win23%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueDoosan Arena

RefereeAlejandro Hernandez

Line-ups

Plzen

4-2-2-2

Levski Sofia

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Plzen

Levski Sofia

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Czech Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
24	Levski Sofia	2	−1	1
31	Plzen	2	−4	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Plzen

4-2-2-2

44 F. Wiegele

2 T. Pališčák

40 S. Dweh

3 D. Vavro

19 C. Souaré

17 P. Hrošovský

6 L. Červ

99 A. Memić

18 T. Ladra

9 D. Višinský

25 C. Kabongo

Coach · R. Kováč

Substitutes

11 · M. Vydra

14 · Merchas Doski

23 · B. Faal

29 · A. Gabriel

7 · S. Lawal

20 · Jiří Maxim Panoš

36 · S. Pirgić

98 · F. Prebsl

12 · A. Sojka

5 · Karel Spáčil

1 · D. Ťapaj

10 · M. Toure

Levski Sofia

4-2-3-1

92 S. Vutsov

21 Aldair

50 K. Dimitrov

4 C. Makoun

3 Maicon

8 M. Grujić

19 E. El Moubarik

22 M. Soula

35 Serginho

17 Everton Bala

7 Reinaldo

Coach · Julio Velázquez

Substitutes

28 · S. Stoyanchov

31 · N. Serafimov

11 · A. Oko-Flex

78 · M. Lukov

27 · David Kusso

2 · Hevertton Santos

20 · Álex Centelles

9 · J. Perea

1 · O. Vladimirov

47 · A. Bouras

Our number · plzen winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

49% The market55%

Us49%

~~Market~~55%

We make Plzen a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Plzen v Levski Sofia~~1.46 – 0.93

~~Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 20 Aug~~W1 D0 L3 · W0 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 1~~31 v 24

~~The market · Plzen win~~55% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Plzen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Plzen win	49%	55%	−6
Draw	27%	24%	+3
Levski Sofia win	23%	21%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	43%	55%	−12
Both teams to score	47%	55%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	69%	77%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	22%	34%	−12
Plzen or draw	77%	79%	−2
Plzen clean sheet	40%	–	–
Levski Sofia clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 9.6 8.1 3.9 1 13.0 12.8 5.7 2 9.8 9.1 4.2 3 4.8 4.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Plzen down, Levski Sofia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Plzen play in Czech Liga, Levski Sofia in the Bulgarian First League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Plzen are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Plzen, 0.93 for Levski Sofia. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 20 Aug

PLZEN

LWLL0–3 · 4–1 · 0–3 · 1–2

LEVSKI SOFIA

LD0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	2	+6	6
2	Bayer Leverkusen	2	+6	6
3	Benfica	2	+5	6
4	Beşiktaş	2	+4	6
5	Bournemouth	2	+4	6
6	Omonia Nicosia	2	+4	6
7	Ferencvarosi TC	2	+3	6
8	Lyon	2	+2	6
9	Sunderland	2	+2	6
10	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	+2	6
11	Sparta Praha	2	+3	4
12	Union St. Gilloise	2	+3	4
13	Rennes	2	+1	4
14	Dinamo Zagreb	2	+1	4
15	Crystal Palace	2	+3	3
16	AC Milan	2	+2	3
17	Jagiellonia	2	+1	3
18	OFI	2	+1	3
19	Torreense	2	0	3
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	0	3
21	Red Bull Salzburg	2	−3	3
22	Real Sociedad	2	−1	1
23	Lillestrom	2	−1	1
24	Levski Sofia	2	−1	1
25	Hapoel Beer Sheva	2	−1	1
26	Sturm Graz	2	−3	1
27	NEC Nijmegen	2	−5	1
28	Celta Vigo	2	−2	0
29	Anderlecht	2	−2	0
30	1899 Hoffenheim	2	−3	0
31	Plzen	2	−4	0
32	Marseille	2	−4	0
33	Celtic	2	−5	0
34	Ararat-Armenia	2	−5	0
35	Celje	2	−5	0
36	Lech Poznan	2	−8	0