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Omonia Nicosia v Benfica
Omonia Nicosia
BenficaUEFA Europa League · THU 22 OCT · GSP Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Benfica win at 58%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Benfica 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 18–24–58
- 1′KICK-OFF Omonia Nicosia v Benfica
- 13′We said Benfica at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 0–1 · 5–13–82
- 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Omonia Nicosia 0–1 Benfica
- 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Benfica win: 58% at kick-off, 82% now
- 15′14′: Claudio Echeverri on the scoresheet for Benfica, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 5–13–81
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 5–14–82
- 41′We said Benfica at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 1–1 · 18–36–46
- 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Omonia Nicosia 1–1 Benfica
- 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Benfica win: 58% at kick-off, 46% now
- 43′Omonia Nicosia level it on 42′ through Andronikos Kakoullis. 1–1. 1–1 · 18–37–45
- 45′We said Benfica at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 18–38–44
- 45′SECOND HALF Omonia Nicosia 1–1 Benfica
- 48′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 3–14–83
- 48′HALF-TIME Omonia Nicosia 1–1 Benfica
- 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Omonia Nicosia 1–2 Benfica
- 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Benfica win: 58% at kick-off, 83% now
- 49′Vangelis Pavlidis scores for Benfica on 49′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 3–14–83
- 50′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Omonia Nicosia · On: Luuk Brouwers · Off: Ewandro Corrected
- 60′We said Benfica at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
- 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Omonia Nicosia · On: Mihlali Mayambela · Off: Florin Tănase
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Omonia Nicosia · On: Loïs Diony · Off: Andronikos Kakoullis
- 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Tomás Araújo · Benfica
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Benfica · On: Gianluca Prestianni · Off: Rafa Silva
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Benfica · On: Heorhii Sudakov · Off: Claudio Echeverri
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Benfica · On: João Palhinha · Off: Manuel Silva
- 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Benfica win: 58% at kick-off, 88% now
- 75′We said Benfica at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 1–3 · 0–1–99
- 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Omonia Nicosia 1–3 Benfica
- 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Benfica win: 58% at kick-off, 99% now
- 76′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–1–99
- 77′76′: Fredrik Aursnes on the scoresheet for Benfica, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Benfica · On: Anísio Cabral · Off: Vangelis Pavlidis
- 79′We said Benfica at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Omonia Nicosia · On: A. Neophytou · Off: Jaden Sean Montnor
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Omonia Nicosia · On: Andreas Christou · Off: panagiotis andreou
- 84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' João Palhinha · Benfica
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Benfica · On: Dodi Lukebakio · Off: Andreas Schjelderup
- 85′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
- 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Omonia Nicosia 1–4 Benfica
- 87′Benfica ahead on 85′ through Gianluca Prestianni. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
- 89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Souffian El Karouani · Benfica
- 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Gianluca Prestianni · Benfica
- 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Loïs Diony · Omonia Nicosia
- FTFULL TIME Omonia Nicosia 1–4 Benfica
- FTOmonia Nicosia 1–4 Benfica · Benfica win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Benfica are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Omonia Nicosia 18%, draw 24%, Benfica 58%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 49%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off
Omonia Nicosia win18%
Benfica win58%Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 20:00
RoundLeague stage · matchday 3
VenueGSP Stadium
RefereeJasper Vergoote
Match timeline
All events
Omonia NicosiaMIN
BenficaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Omonia Nicosia
4-4-2
Benfica
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Omonia Nicosia
Benfica
Last match: 19 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)
Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Omonia Nicosia
4-4-2
40 Fabiano
77 L. Négo
93 J. Duverne
37 Ľ. Šatka
29 J. Balkovec
11 Ewandro
74 P. Andreou
14 M. Marić
7 J. Montnor
9 A. Kakoullis
17 F. Tănase
Coach · H. Berg
Substitutes
22 · M. Tankovic
27 · S. Simič
85 · A. Neophytou
78 · Pantelis Michail
21 · M. Mayambela
1 · T. Kaminski
99 · L. Diony
82 · A. Christou
92 · C. Panagiotis
20 · L. Brouwers
90 · C. Konstantinidis
Benfica
4-2-3-1
1 A. Trubin
6 A. Bah
3 A. Circati
44 Tomás Araújo
34 S. El Karouani
8 F. Aursnes
16 Manu
27 Rafa
30 C. Echeverri
21 A. Schjelderup
14 V. Pavlidis
Coach · Marco Silva
Substitutes
88 · Tiago Freitas
26 · S. Dahl
72 · A. Cabral
62 · J. Neto
24 · Samuel Soares
2 · C. Lenglet
36 · João Palhinha
11 · D. Lukebakio
25 · G. Prestianni
10 · H. Sudakov
33 · Gabriel Indio
77 · Gonçalo Carvalho Moreira
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Omonia Nicosia
4-4-2
40 Fabiano
77 L. Négo
93 J. Duverne
37 Ľ. Šatka
29 J. Balkovec
11 Ewandro
74 P. Andreou
14 M. Marić
7 J. Montnor
9 A. Kakoullis
17 F. Tănase
Coach · H. Berg
Substitutes
22 · M. Tankovic
27 · S. Simič
85 · A. Neophytou
78 · Pantelis Michail
21 · M. Mayambela
1 · T. Kaminski
99 · L. Diony
82 · A. Christou
92 · C. Panagiotis
20 · L. Brouwers
90 · C. Konstantinidis
Benfica
4-2-3-1
1 A. Trubin
6 A. Bah
3 A. Circati
44 Tomás Araújo
34 S. El Karouani
8 F. Aursnes
16 Manu
27 Rafa
30 C. Echeverri
21 A. Schjelderup
14 V. Pavlidis
Coach · Marco Silva
Substitutes
88 · Tiago Freitas
26 · S. Dahl
72 · A. Cabral
62 · J. Neto
24 · Samuel Soares
2 · C. Lenglet
36 · João Palhinha
11 · D. Lukebakio
25 · G. Prestianni
10 · H. Sudakov
33 · Gabriel Indio
77 · Gonçalo Carvalho Moreira
We make Benfica a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Omonia Nicosia win | 18% | 11% | +7 |
| Draw | 24% | 17% | +7 |
| Benfica win | 58% | 72% | −14 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 63% | −13 |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 52% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 82% | −7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 42% | −14 |
| Omonia Nicosia or draw | 42% | 28% | +14 |
| Omonia Nicosia clean sheet | 17% | – | – |
| Benfica clean sheet | 41% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in UEFA Europa League this season · since 6 Aug
OMONIA NICOSIA
BENFICA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 2 | +6 | 6 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | +6 | 6 |
| 3 | Benfica | 2 | +5 | 6 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 5 | Bournemouth | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 6 | Omonia Nicosia | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 7 | Ferencvarosi TC | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 8 | Lyon | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 10 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 11 | Sparta Praha | 2 | +3 | 4 |
| 12 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | +3 | 4 |
| 13 | Rennes | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 14 | Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 2 | +3 | 3 |
| 16 | AC Milan | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 17 | Jagiellonia | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 18 | OFI | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 19 | Torreense | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 2 | −3 | 3 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 23 | Lillestrom | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 24 | Levski Sofia | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 25 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 26 | Sturm Graz | 2 | −3 | 1 |
| 27 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | −5 | 1 |
| 28 | Celta Vigo | 2 | −2 | 0 |
| 29 | Anderlecht | 2 | −2 | 0 |
| 30 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | −3 | 0 |
| 31 | Plzen | 2 | −4 | 0 |
| 32 | Marseille | 2 | −4 | 0 |
| 33 | Celtic | 2 | −5 | 0 |
| 34 | Ararat-Armenia | 2 | −5 | 0 |
| 35 | Celje | 2 | −5 | 0 |
| 36 | Lech Poznan | 2 | −8 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Juventus
Bayer Leverkusen
Beşiktaş
Bournemouth
Ferencvarosi TC
Lyon
Sunderland
Olympiakos Piraeus
Sparta Praha
Union St. Gilloise
Rennes
Dinamo Zagreb
Crystal Palace
AC Milan
Jagiellonia
OFI
Torreense
AZ Alkmaar
Red Bull Salzburg
Real Sociedad
Lillestrom
Levski Sofia
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Sturm Graz
NEC Nijmegen
Celta Vigo
Anderlecht
1899 Hoffenheim
Plzen
Marseille
Celtic
Ararat-Armenia
Celje
Lech Poznan