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Omonia Nicosia v Benfica

Omonia Nicosia
1–4Full time
Benfica

UEFA Europa League · THU 22 OCT · GSP Stadium

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 23:00
Omonia Nicosia 1–4 Benfica BENFICA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Benfica win58%
The market said72%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.268
The market’s Brier score0.119

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Benfica win at 58%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Benfica 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 18–24–58
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Omonia Nicosia v Benfica
  4. 13′We said Benfica at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 0–1 · 5–13–82
  5. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Omonia Nicosia 0–1 Benfica
  6. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Benfica win: 58% at kick-off, 82% now
  7. 15′14′: Claudio Echeverri on the scoresheet for Benfica, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 5–13–81
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 5–14–82
  9. 41′We said Benfica at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 1–1 · 18–36–46
  10. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Omonia Nicosia 1–1 Benfica
  11. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Benfica win: 58% at kick-off, 46% now
  12. 43′Omonia Nicosia level it on 42′ through Andronikos Kakoullis. 1–1. 1–1 · 18–37–45
  13. 45′We said Benfica at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 18–38–44
  14. 45′SECOND HALF Omonia Nicosia 1–1 Benfica
  15. 48′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 3–14–83
  16. 48′HALF-TIME Omonia Nicosia 1–1 Benfica
  17. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Omonia Nicosia 1–2 Benfica
  18. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Benfica win: 58% at kick-off, 83% now
  19. 49′Vangelis Pavlidis scores for Benfica on 49′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 3–14–83
  20. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Omonia Nicosia · On: Luuk Brouwers · Off: Ewandro Corrected
  21. 60′We said Benfica at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
  22. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Omonia Nicosia · On: Mihlali Mayambela · Off: Florin Tănase
  23. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Omonia Nicosia · On: Loïs Diony · Off: Andronikos Kakoullis
  24. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Tomás Araújo · Benfica
  25. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Benfica · On: Gianluca Prestianni · Off: Rafa Silva
  26. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Benfica · On: Heorhii Sudakov · Off: Claudio Echeverri
  27. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Benfica · On: João Palhinha · Off: Manuel Silva
  28. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Benfica win: 58% at kick-off, 88% now
  29. 75′We said Benfica at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 1–3 · 0–1–99
  30. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Omonia Nicosia 1–3 Benfica
  31. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Benfica win: 58% at kick-off, 99% now
  32. 76′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–1–99
  33. 77′76′: Fredrik Aursnes on the scoresheet for Benfica, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
  34. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Benfica · On: Anísio Cabral · Off: Vangelis Pavlidis
  35. 79′We said Benfica at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  36. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Omonia Nicosia · On: A. Neophytou · Off: Jaden Sean Montnor
  37. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Omonia Nicosia · On: Andreas Christou · Off: panagiotis andreou
  38. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' João Palhinha · Benfica
  39. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Benfica · On: Dodi Lukebakio · Off: Andreas Schjelderup
  40. 85′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  41. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Omonia Nicosia 1–4 Benfica
  42. 87′Benfica ahead on 85′ through Gianluca Prestianni. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  43. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Souffian El Karouani · Benfica
  44. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Gianluca Prestianni · Benfica
  45. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Loïs Diony · Omonia Nicosia
  46. FTFULL TIME Omonia Nicosia 1–4 Benfica
  47. FTOmonia Nicosia 1–4 Benfica · Benfica win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Benfica are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Omonia Nicosia 18%, draw 24%, Benfica 58%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Omonia Nicosia v BenficaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Omonia Nicosia win18%
Draw24%
Benfica win58%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueGSP Stadium

RefereeJasper Vergoote

Line-ups

Omonia Nicosia

4-4-2

Benfica

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Omonia Nicosia

Benfica

3Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Benfica2+56
6Omonia Nicosia2+46

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Omonia Nicosia

4-4-2

40 Fabiano

77 L. Négo

93 J. Duverne

37 Ľ. Šatka

29 J. Balkovec

11 Ewandro

74 P. Andreou

14 M. Marić

7 J. Montnor

9 A. Kakoullis

17 F. Tănase

Coach · H. Berg

Substitutes

22 · M. Tankovic

27 · S. Simič

85 · A. Neophytou

78 · Pantelis Michail

21 · M. Mayambela

1 · T. Kaminski

99 · L. Diony

82 · A. Christou

92 · C. Panagiotis

20 · L. Brouwers

90 · C. Konstantinidis

Benfica

4-2-3-1

1 A. Trubin

6 A. Bah

3 A. Circati

44 Tomás Araújo

34 S. El Karouani

8 F. Aursnes

16 Manu

27 Rafa

30 C. Echeverri

21 A. Schjelderup

14 V. Pavlidis

Coach · Marco Silva

Substitutes

88 · Tiago Freitas

26 · S. Dahl

72 · A. Cabral

62 · J. Neto

24 · Samuel Soares

2 · C. Lenglet

36 · João Palhinha

11 · D. Lukebakio

25 · G. Prestianni

10 · H. Sudakov

33 · Gabriel Indio

77 · Gonçalo Carvalho Moreira

Our number · benfica winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 22 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off
58% The market72%
Us58%
Market72%

We make Benfica a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Omonia Nicosia v Benfica0.89 – 1.77
Form · last six in UEFA Europa League this season · since 6 AugW4 D1 L1 · W5 D1 L0
Table places · points 6 v 66 v 3
The market · Benfica win72% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70%75% 16 OCT 00:0022 OCT 19:36
Our probability · Benfica win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Omonia Nicosia win18%11%+7
Draw24%17%+7
Benfica win58%72%−14
Over 2.5 goals50%63%−13
Both teams to score49%52%−3
Over 1.5 goals75%82%−7
Over 3.5 goals28%42%−14
Omonia Nicosia or draw42%28%+14
Omonia Nicosia clean sheet17%––
Benfica clean sheet41%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.0%
0123450 7.4 12.0 11.0 6.5 2.9 1 5.9 11.4 9.8 5.8 2.5 2 2.8 4.9 4.3 2.6 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Omonia Nicosia down, Benfica across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in UEFA Europa League this season · since 6 Aug

OMONIA NICOSIA

DWLWWW1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 1–0 · 3–0

BENFICA

WDWWWW6–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 4–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Juventus2+66
2Bayer Leverkusen2+66
3Benfica2+56
4Beşiktaş2+46
5Bournemouth2+46
6Omonia Nicosia2+46
7Ferencvarosi TC2+36
8Lyon2+26
9Sunderland2+26
10Olympiakos Piraeus2+26
11Sparta Praha2+34
12Union St. Gilloise2+34
13Rennes2+14
14Dinamo Zagreb2+14
15Crystal Palace2+33
16AC Milan2+23
17Jagiellonia2+13
18OFI2+13
19Torreense203
20AZ Alkmaar203
21Red Bull Salzburg2−33
22Real Sociedad2−11
23Lillestrom2−11
24Levski Sofia2−11
25Hapoel Beer Sheva2−11
26Sturm Graz2−31
27NEC Nijmegen2−51
28Celta Vigo2−20
29Anderlecht2−20
301899 Hoffenheim2−30
31Plzen2−40
32Marseille2−40
33Celtic2−50
34Ararat-Armenia2−50
35Celje2−50
36Lech Poznan2−80

The competition's standings before kick-off.