Olympiakos Piraeus v Sparta Praha prediction · UEFA Europa League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 23:00

Olympiakos Piraeus 1–0 Sparta Praha OLYMPIAKOS PIRAEUS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Olympiakos Piraeus win~~55%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.308

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.199

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olympiakos Piraeus win at 55%.
1′KICK-OFF Olympiakos Piraeus v Sparta Praha
2′Much as we predicted: Olympiakos Piraeus was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–27–19
30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Sparta Praha
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
39′11 shots for Olympiakos Piraeus, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 44–38–18
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Roman Macek · Sparta Praha
40′We said Olympiakos Piraeus at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–39–18
40′Olympiakos Piraeus have had 12 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 43–39–18
45′17 shots for Olympiakos Piraeus, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 41–41–17
45′HALF-TIME Olympiakos Piraeus 0–0 Sparta Praha
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sparta Praha · On: Sivert Heggheim Mannsverk · Off: Hugo Sochurek
46′SECOND HALF Olympiakos Piraeus 0–0 Sparta Praha
49′We said Olympiakos Piraeus at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–44–17
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Olympiakos Piraeus win 41%)
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
58′We said Olympiakos Piraeus at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–50–15
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Sparta Praha · On: Jonatan Braut Brunes · Off: Matyáš Vojta
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Olympiakos Piraeus · On: Armando González · Off: Roman Yaremchuk
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Olympiakos Piraeus · On: Gustavo Puerta · Off: Santiago Hezze
64′Olympiakos Piraeus have had 20 attempts to 7 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 30–56–14
65′We said Olympiakos Piraeus at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–57–14
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Sparta Praha · On: Patrik Vydra · Off: Roman Macek
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Sparta Praha · On: Ebrima Singhateh · Off: Matej Jurasek
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
72′We said Olympiakos Piraeus at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–66–11
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Olympiakos Piraeus · On: Marcus Pedersen · Off: Manolis Saliakas
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Olympiakos Piraeus · On: Nayair Tiknizyan · Off: Bruno Onyemaechi
77′We said Olympiakos Piraeus at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–73–9
78′78′: Armando González on the scoresheet for Olympiakos Piraeus, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 92–8–0
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Ebrima Singhateh · Sparta Praha
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Olympiakos Piraeus 1–0 Sparta Praha · Armando González
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 55% at kick-off, 92% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Olympiakos Piraeus win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 75%)
79′We published Olympiakos Piraeus at 55%. Our model now makes it 92%. 1–0 · 92–7–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Sparta Praha · On: Pavel Kadeřábek · Off: Ki-Jana Hoever
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Martin Suchomel · Sparta Praha
83′We published Olympiakos Piraeus at 55%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Olympiakos Piraeus win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Olympiakos Piraeus · On: Gustavo Sá · Off: Chiquinho
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Jota Silva · Olympiakos Piraeus
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Gelson Martins · Olympiakos Piraeus
FTFULL TIME Olympiakos Piraeus 1–0 Sparta Praha
FTOlympiakos Piraeus 1–0 Sparta Praha · Olympiakos Piraeus win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Olympiakos Piraeus are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Olympiakos Piraeus 55%, draw 26%, Sparta Praha 19%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Olympiakos Piraeus v Sparta PrahaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Olympiakos Piraeus win55%

Draw26%

Sparta Praha win19%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueKaraiskakis Stadium

RefereeEspen Eskas

Line-ups

Olympiakos Piraeus

4-2-3-1

Sparta Praha

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Olympiakos Piraeus

Sparta Praha

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Super League 1

Last match: 18 Oct · Czech Liga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	+2	6
11	Sparta Praha	2	+3	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Olympiakos Piraeus

4-2-3-1

1 S. Ortega

2 M. Saliakas

45 P. Retsos

5 L. Pirola

70 S. Onyemaechi

19 R. Freuler

32 S. Hezze

20 Jota Silva

22 Chiquinho

10 Gelson Martins

11 R. Yaremchuk

Coach · Imanol Alguacil

Substitutes

6 · David Carmo

92 · I. Georgakopoulos

34 · A. González

27 · M. Pedersen

15 · G. Puerta

8 · Gustavo Sá

4 · Z. Smajlović

71 · N. Tiknizyan

89 · P. Toufakis

91 · D. Stournaras

77 · C. Filis

Sparta Praha

4-3-3

44 J. Surovčík

25 K. Hoever

6 T. Guddal

30 J. Zelený

2 M. Suchomel

38 H. Sochurek

28 R. Macek

5 Santiago Eneme

31 M. Jurásek

29 M. Vojta

7 J. Alcócer

Coach · Brian Priske

Substitutes

18 · A. Irving

3 · P. Kadeřábek

20 · S. Mannsverk

4 · J. Martinec

22 · L. Mbe Soh

27 · E. Singhateh

15 · V. Vitályos

26 · P. Vydra

47 · K. Hegyi

14 · J. Braut Brunes

54 · L. Franc

Our number · olympiakos piraeus winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

55% The market64%

Us55%

~~Market~~64%

We make Olympiakos Piraeus a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Olympiakos Piraeus v Sparta Praha~~1.56 – 0.80

~~Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D0 L0 · W1 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 4~~10 v 11

~~The market · Olympiakos Piraeus win~~64% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Olympiakos Piraeus win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olympiakos Piraeus win	55%	64%	−9
Draw	26%	21%	+5
Sparta Praha win	19%	15%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	42%	54%	−12
Both teams to score	44%	50%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	69%	77%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	21%	33%	−12
Olympiakos Piraeus or draw	81%	85%	−4
Olympiakos Piraeus clean sheet	45%	–	–
Sparta Praha clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.3%

0123450 9.8 7.2 3.0 1 14.3 12.2 4.7 2 11.4 9.2 3.7 3 5.9 4.8 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olympiakos Piraeus down, Sparta Praha across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Olympiakos Piraeus play in Super League 1, Sparta Praha in Czech Liga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Olympiakos Piraeus are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Olympiakos Piraeus, 0.80 for Sparta Praha. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 Sept

OLYMPIAKOS PIRAEUS

WW2–1 · 1–0

SPARTA PRAHA

WD4–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	2	+6	6
2	Bayer Leverkusen	2	+6	6
3	Benfica	2	+5	6
4	Beşiktaş	2	+4	6
5	Bournemouth	2	+4	6
6	Omonia Nicosia	2	+4	6
7	Ferencvarosi TC	2	+3	6
8	Lyon	2	+2	6
9	Sunderland	2	+2	6
10	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	+2	6
11	Sparta Praha	2	+3	4
12	Union St. Gilloise	2	+3	4
13	Rennes	2	+1	4
14	Dinamo Zagreb	2	+1	4
15	Crystal Palace	2	+3	3
16	AC Milan	2	+2	3
17	Jagiellonia	2	+1	3
18	OFI	2	+1	3
19	Torreense	2	0	3
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	0	3
21	Red Bull Salzburg	2	−3	3
22	Real Sociedad	2	−1	1
23	Lillestrom	2	−1	1
24	Levski Sofia	2	−1	1
25	Hapoel Beer Sheva	2	−1	1
26	Sturm Graz	2	−3	1
27	NEC Nijmegen	2	−5	1
28	Celta Vigo	2	−2	0
29	Anderlecht	2	−2	0
30	1899 Hoffenheim	2	−3	0
31	Plzen	2	−4	0
32	Marseille	2	−4	0
33	Celtic	2	−5	0
34	Ararat-Armenia	2	−5	0
35	Celje	2	−5	0
36	Lech Poznan	2	−8	0