OFI v Bayer Leverkusen prediction · UEFA Europa League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 20:28

OFI 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen BAYER LEVERKUSEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Bayer Leverkusen win~~78%

~~The market said~~79%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.072

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.067

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bayer Leverkusen win at 78%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bayer Leverkusen 78% before kick-off, 78% now. 0–0 · 8–14–78
1′KICK-OFF OFI v Bayer Leverkusen
16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Carles Martínez Novell · Bayer Leverkusen
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Aleix García · Bayer Leverkusen
30′Bayer Leverkusen have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 10–21–69
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Bayer Leverkusen win: 78% at kick-off, 68% now
33′Bayer Leverkusen have had 9 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 10–22–68
35′We said Bayer Leverkusen at 78% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 2–8–90
35′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 0–1 · 2–8–90
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' OFI 0–1 Bayer Leverkusen
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Bayer Leverkusen win: 78% at kick-off, 90% now
36′Bayer Leverkusen ahead on 35′ through Jonas Hofmann. 0–1. 0–1 · 2–8–90
37′We said Bayer Leverkusen at 78% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' OFI 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Bayer Leverkusen win: 78% at kick-off, 98% now
39′Jonas Hofmann scores for Bayer Leverkusen on 37′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
45′SECOND HALF OFI 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen
47′HALF-TIME OFI 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' OFI · On: Taxiarchis Fountas · Off: Kenan Kodro
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Miguel Gutiérrez · Off: Facundo Medina
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Ibrahim Maza · Off: Jonas Hofmann
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Nathan Tella · Off: Patrik Schick
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' OFI · On: Giannis Theodosoulakis · Off: Aitor Cantalapiedra
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' OFI · On: Giannis Apostolakis · Off: Andreas Bouchalakis
75′We said Bayer Leverkusen at 78% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Edmond Tapsoba · Off: Lucas Vázquez
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Moussa Diaby · Off: Malik Tillman
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Jarell Quansah · Bayer Leverkusen
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' OFI · On: Thanasis Sitmalidis · Off: Thiago Nuss
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' OFI · On: Borja González · Off: Konstantinos Kostoulas
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Borja González · OFI
88′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Equi Fernández · Bayer Leverkusen
92′0–2 at the end. Our 78% on Bayer Leverkusen comes in. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME OFI 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen
FTOFI 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen · Bayer Leverkusen win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: OFI 8%, draw 14%, Bayer Leverkusen 78%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on OFI v Bayer LeverkusenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

OFI win8%

Draw14%

Bayer Leverkusen win78%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenuePankritio Stadium

RefereeOleksiy Derevinskiy

Line-ups

OFI

3-4-3

Bayer Leverkusen

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

OFI

Bayer Leverkusen

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Super League 1

Last match: 18 Oct · the German Bundesliga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bayer Leverkusen	2	+6	6
18	OFI	2	+1	3

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Bremer faces uncertain Juventus future as Bayer Leverkusen consider January offerFootball Italia · 22 Oct 14:59 · Juventus, Bayer Leverkusen

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

OFI

3-4-3

1 K. Lilo

5 K. Kostoulas

15 A. Poungouras

2 K. Krizmanić

24 L. Dickmann

14 T. Androutsos

41 A. Bouchalakis

3 N. Athanasiou

10 Aitor Cantalapiedra

19 K. Kodro

18 T. Nuss

Coach · C. Kontis

Substitutes

21 · G. Apostolakis

11 · T. Fountas

17 · Borja González

90 · Pavlos Kenourgiakis

23 · Manuel Kalafatis

8 · G. Kanellópoulos

6 · Z. Karachalios

13 · P. Katsikas

43 · D. Nikolaou

30 · T. Romano

71 · Thanasis Sitmalidis

46 · G. Theodosoulakis

Bayer Leverkusen

4-2-3-1

28 J. Blaswich

17 Lucas Vázquez

4 J. Quansah

5 L. Badé

2 F. Medina

6 E. Fernández

24 Aleix García

7 J. Hofmann

10 M. Tillman

9 Afonso Moreira

14 P. Schick

Coach · Carles Martínez

Substitutes

23 · N. Tella

19 · M. Diaby

1 · M. Flekken

3 · Miguel Gutiérrez

43 · B. Hawighorst

36 · N. Lomb

30 · I. Maza

12 · E. Tapsoba

45 · Gabriel Minutillo

Our number · bayer leverkusen winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 19 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

78% The market79%

Us78%

~~Market~~79%

We make Bayer Leverkusen a 78% chance to win. The market has them at 79%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.8–2.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · OFI v Bayer Leverkusen~~0.77 – 2.75

~~Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 20 Aug~~W3 D0 L1 · W2 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 6~~18 v 2

~~The market · Bayer Leverkusen win~~79% · ours 78%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bayer Leverkusen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 77%, 78% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 79% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
OFI win	8%	8%	0
Draw	14%	13%	+1
Bayer Leverkusen win	78%	79%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	68%	71%	−3
Both teams to score	51%	52%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	87%	87%	0
Over 3.5 goals	47%	50%	−3
OFI or draw	22%	21%	+1
OFI clean sheet	6%	–	–
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.2%

0123450 3.2 7.9 11.2 10.2 7.0 3.91 2.1 6.5 8.6 7.9 5.4 3.02 2.4 3.3 3.1 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+OFI down, Bayer Leverkusen across0–5 goals a side shown (93.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

OFI play in Super League 1, Bayer Leverkusen in the German Bundesliga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: OFI are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

0.77 goals for OFI, 2.75 for Bayer Leverkusen. Most likely score 0–2.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 17:15. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 20 Aug

OFI

WWWL3–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

BAYER LEVERKUSEN

WW2–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	2	+6	6
2	Bayer Leverkusen	2	+6	6
3	Benfica	2	+5	6
4	Beşiktaş	2	+4	6
5	Bournemouth	2	+4	6
6	Omonia Nicosia	2	+4	6
7	Ferencvarosi TC	2	+3	6
8	Lyon	2	+2	6
9	Sunderland	2	+2	6
10	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	+2	6
11	Sparta Praha	2	+3	4
12	Union St. Gilloise	2	+3	4
13	Rennes	2	+1	4
14	Dinamo Zagreb	2	+1	4
15	Crystal Palace	2	+3	3
16	AC Milan	2	+2	3
17	Jagiellonia	2	+1	3
18	OFI	2	+1	3
19	Torreense	2	0	3
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	0	3
21	Red Bull Salzburg	2	−3	3
22	Real Sociedad	2	−1	1
23	Lillestrom	2	−1	1
24	Levski Sofia	2	−1	1
25	Hapoel Beer Sheva	2	−1	1
26	Sturm Graz	2	−3	1
27	NEC Nijmegen	2	−5	1
28	Celta Vigo	2	−2	0
29	Anderlecht	2	−2	0
30	1899 Hoffenheim	2	−3	0
31	Plzen	2	−4	0
32	Marseille	2	−4	0
33	Celtic	2	−5	0
34	Ararat-Armenia	2	−5	0
35	Celje	2	−5	0
36	Lech Poznan	2	−8	0