NEC Nijmegen v Levski Sofia prediction · UEFA Europa League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 22:30

NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Levski Sofia NEC NIJMEGEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said NEC Nijmegen win~~50%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.868

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.851

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said NEC Nijmegen win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: NEC Nijmegen was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
1′KICK-OFF NEC Nijmegen v Levski Sofia
17′We said NEC Nijmegen at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–25–53
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' NEC Nijmegen 0–1 Levski Sofia
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' NEC Nijmegen win: 50% at kick-off, 22% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Levski Sofia win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was NEC Nijmegen win 22%)
18′Levski Sofia ahead on 17′ through Francisco Everton Mota de Castro. 0–1. 0–1 · 22–25–53
19′GOAL DISALLOWED · 19' Levski Sofia
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' NEC Nijmegen win: 50% at kick-off, 47% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' NEC Nijmegen win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Levski Sofia win 24%)
25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Noe Lebreton · NEC Nijmegen
35′We said NEC Nijmegen at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–26–57
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' NEC Nijmegen 0–1 Levski Sofia
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' NEC Nijmegen win: 50% at kick-off, 17% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Levski Sofia win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was NEC Nijmegen win 17%)
36′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 16–26–58
37′Levski Sofia ahead on 35′ through Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–26–58
42′We said NEC Nijmegen at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
45′SECOND HALF NEC Nijmegen 0–1 Levski Sofia
47′HALF-TIME NEC Nijmegen 0–1 Levski Sofia
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' NEC Nijmegen win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
57′We said NEC Nijmegen at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
59′NEC Nijmegen have had 12 attempts to 7 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 8–25–67
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Levski Sofia · On: Armstrong Oko-Flex · Off: David Kusso
63′We said NEC Nijmegen at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–52–18
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Levski Sofia · On: Gasper Trdin · Off: Mehdi Moubarik
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Levski Sofia
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' NEC Nijmegen win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Levski Sofia win 18%)
65′Tjaronn Chery scores for NEC Nijmegen on 64′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–54–17
66′We said NEC Nijmegen at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–55–17
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' NEC Nijmegen win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' NEC Nijmegen · On: Ahmetcan Kaplan · Off: Perr Schuurs
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Levski Sofia · On: Mazire Soula · Off: Marko Grujić
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Levski Sofia · On: Juan Esteban Perea Sanchez · Off: Francisco Everton Mota de Castro
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' NEC Nijmegen win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' NEC Nijmegen · On: Willum Thor Willumsson · Off: Dušan Tadić
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' NEC Nijmegen · On: Dennis Geiger · Off: Clement Bischoff
91′We said NEC Nijmegen at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' NEC Nijmegen · On: Almugera Kabar · Off: Noe Lebreton
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' NEC Nijmegen · On: Yassin Moslih · Off: Gabriel·Bras
94′NEC Nijmegen have had 16 attempts to 8 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 2–97–1
FTFULL TIME NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Levski Sofia
FTNEC Nijmegen 1–1 Levski Sofia · NEC Nijmegen win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

NEC Nijmegen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NEC Nijmegen 50%, draw 25%, Levski Sofia 24%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on NEC Nijmegen v Levski SofiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

NEC Nijmegen win50%

Draw25%

Levski Sofia win24%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueStadion de Goffert

RefereeAliyar Agayev

Line-ups

NEC Nijmegen

3-4-3

Levski Sofia

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NEC Nijmegen

Levski Sofia

5Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · Eredivisie

Last match: 11 Oct · the Bulgarian First League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
27	Levski Sofia	1	−1	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	−5	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

NEC Nijmegen

3-4-3

1 G. Crettaz

73 Gabriel Brás

4 P. Schuurs

24 Deveron Fonville

34 Kevin Kers

6 D. Nejašmić

20 N. Lebreton

99 Clement Bischoff

9 T. Chery

30 B. Linssen

10 D. Tadić

Coach · Dick Schreuder

Substitutes

18 · D. Geiger

38 · Joep Geneste

66 · Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar

22 · A. Kaplan

35 · Jamiro Monteiro

42 · Y. Moslih

12 · N. Polster

14 · K. Sierhuis

11 · W. Willumsson

Levski Sofia

4-3-3

92 S. Vutsov

21 Aldair

50 K. Dimitrov

4 C. Makoun

3 Maicon

35 Serginho

8 M. Grujić

19 E. El Moubarik

27 David Kusso

7 Reinaldo

17 Everton Bala

Coach · Julio Velázquez

Substitutes

78 · M. Lukov

11 · A. Oko-Flex

31 · N. Serafimov

22 · M. Soula

18 · G. Trdin

20 · Álex Centelles

2 · Hevertton Santos

1 · O. Vladimirov

9 · J. Perea

Our number · nec nijmegen winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 13 Oct 05:52 · locked at kick-off

50% The market50%

Us50%

~~Market~~50%

We make NEC Nijmegen a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NEC Nijmegen v Levski Sofia~~1.63 – 1.07

~~Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 17 Sept~~W0 D0 L1 · W0 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~36 v 27

~~The market · NEC Nijmegen win~~50% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · NEC Nijmegen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 50% now. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NEC Nijmegen win	50%	50%	0
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Levski Sofia win	24%	23%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	51%	50%	+1
Both teams to score	53%	53%	0
Over 1.5 goals	76%	73%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	30%	−1
NEC Nijmegen or draw	76%	77%	−1
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet	34%	–	–
Levski Sofia clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.1 6.8 3.8 1 10.6 12.1 6.3 2.2 2 8.9 9.6 5.1 3 4.9 5.2 2.8 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NEC Nijmegen down, Levski Sofia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

NEC Nijmegen play in Eredivisie, Levski Sofia in the Bulgarian First League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: NEC Nijmegen are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.63 goals for NEC Nijmegen, 1.07 for Levski Sofia. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 17 Sept

NEC NIJMEGEN

L0–5

LEVSKI SOFIA

L0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	1	+5	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	+4	3
3	Sparta Praha	1	+3	3
4	Beşiktaş	1	+3	3
5	Union St. Gilloise	1	+3	3
6	Ferencvarosi TC	1	+2	3
7	Benfica	1	+2	3
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	+2	3
9	OFI	1	+2	3
10	Bournemouth	1	+1	3
11	Lyon	1	+1	3
12	Torreense	1	+1	3
13	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	+1	3
14	Red Bull Salzburg	1	+1	3
15	Sunderland	1	+1	3
16	Omonia Nicosia	1	+1	3
17	Sturm Graz	1	0	1
18	Rennes	1	0	1
19	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0	1
20	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0	1
21	Jagiellonia	1	−1	0
22	Real Sociedad	1	−1	0
23	Anderlecht	1	−1	0
24	Lillestrom	1	−1	0
25	Celta Vigo	1	−1	0
26	AZ Alkmaar	1	−1	0
27	Levski Sofia	1	−1	0
28	Celtic	1	−2	0
29	1899 Hoffenheim	1	−2	0
30	AC Milan	1	−2	0
31	Celje	1	−2	0
32	Marseille	1	−3	0
33	Ararat-Armenia	1	−3	0
34	Plzen	1	−3	0
35	Lech Poznan	1	−4	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	−5	0