Marseille v Olympiakos Piraeus prediction · UEFA Europa League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 22:30

Marseille 0–1 Olympiakos Piraeus MARSEILLE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Marseille win~~51%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.928

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.686

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Marseille win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Marseille 51% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–23
1′KICK-OFF Marseille v Olympiakos Piraeus
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Keyliane Abdallah · Marseille
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Marseille win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
42′We said Marseille at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–59
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Marseille 0–1 Olympiakos Piraeus
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Marseille win: 51% at kick-off, 14% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Olympiakos Piraeus win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Marseille win 14%)
43′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 14–27–60
44′Santiago Hezze scores for Olympiakos Piraeus on 42′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–27–60
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Panagiotis Retsos · Olympiakos Piraeus
45′SECOND HALF Marseille 0–1 Olympiakos Piraeus
46′We said Marseille at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–10–87
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Marseille 0–2 Olympiakos Piraeus
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Marseille win: 51% at kick-off, 3% now
46′GOAL DISALLOWED · 46' Olympiakos Piraeus
47′HALF-TIME Marseille 0–1 Olympiakos Piraeus
55′We said Marseille at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–65
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Bruno Onyemaechi · Olympiakos Piraeus
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Marseille · On: Amine Harit · Off: Tochukwu Nnadi
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Marseille · On: Amine Gouiri · Off: Neal Maupay
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Marseille · On: Ulisses Garcia · Off: Emerson Palmieri
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Olympiakos Piraeus · On: Remo Freuler · Off: Gustavo Puerta
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Olympiakos Piraeus · On: Armando González · Off: Roman Yaremchuk
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Olympiakos Piraeus · On: Kostas Fortounis · Off: Jota Silva
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Olympiakos Piraeus · On: Nayair Tiknizyan · Off: Bruno Onyemaechi
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Marseille · On: Faris Moumbagna · Off: Angel Gomes
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Bamo Meite · Marseille
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Marseille win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Marseille · On: Geoffrey Kondogbia · Off: Keyliane Abdallah
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Olympiakos Piraeus · On: Gustavo Sá · Off: Chiquinho
93′0–1 at the end. Our 51% on Marseille misses, and the record keeps it. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Marseille 0–1 Olympiakos Piraeus
FTMarseille 0–1 Olympiakos Piraeus · Marseille win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Marseille are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Marseille 51%, draw 26%, Olympiakos Piraeus 23%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Marseille v Olympiakos PiraeusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Marseille win51%

Draw26%

Olympiakos Piraeus win23%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueOrange Vélodrome

RefereeMichael Oliver

Line-ups

Marseille

4-2-3-1

Olympiakos Piraeus

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Marseille

Olympiakos Piraeus

4Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · the French Ligue 1

Last match: 11 Oct · Super League 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	+1	3
32	Marseille	1	−3	0

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Marseille face threat of points deduction for next seasonGet French Football News · 15 Oct 12:44 · Marseille Marseille predicted XI v Olympiacos: Faris Moumbagna to start, Amine Gouiri benchedGet French Football News · 15 Oct 08:03 · Marseille

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Marseille

4-2-3-1

12 J. de Lange

22 T. Weah

18 B. Meité

21 N. Aguerd

33 Emerson

8 H. Abdelli

6 T. Nnadi

48 K. Abdallah

7 A. Gomes

14 Igor Paixão

11 N. Maupay

Coach · Bruno Genesio

Substitutes

4 · C. Egan-Riley

74 · K. Bezahaf

25 · U. Garcia

9 · A. Gouiri

77 · A. Harit

42 · Nouhoum Kamissoko

19 · G. Kondogbia

43 · T. Mmadi

29 · F. Moumbagna

92 · T. Vermot

46 · E. Mbondo

40 · J. Van Neck

Olympiakos Piraeus

4-2-3-1

1 S. Ortega

2 M. Saliakas

45 P. Retsos

5 L. Pirola

70 S. Onyemaechi

15 G. Puerta

32 S. Hezze

10 Gelson Martins

22 Chiquinho

20 Jota Silva

11 R. Yaremchuk

Coach · Imanol Alguacil

Substitutes

4 · Z. Smajlović

71 · N. Tiknizyan

27 · M. Pedersen

34 · A. González

19 · R. Freuler

7 · K. Fortounis

6 · David Carmo

8 · Gustavo Sá

92 · I. Georgakopoulos

77 · C. Filis

91 · D. Stournaras

Our number · marseille winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 00:27 · locked at kick-off

51% The market40%

Us51%

~~Market~~40%

We make Marseille a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Marseille v Olympiakos Piraeus~~1.59 – 0.97

~~Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 Sept~~W0 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~32 v 13

~~The market · Marseille win~~40% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Marseille win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 51% now. The market has gone from 44% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Marseille win	51%	40%	+11
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Olympiakos Piraeus win	23%	33%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	47%	53%	−6
Both teams to score	50%	58%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	73%	76%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	32%	−7
Marseille or draw	77%	67%	+10
Marseille clean sheet	38%	–	–
Olympiakos Piraeus clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.1 7.1 3.7 1 11.9 12.3 5.8 2 9.8 9.5 4.6 3 5.2 5.0 2.4 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Marseille down, Olympiakos Piraeus across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Marseille play in the French Ligue 1, Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Marseille are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Marseille, 0.97 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 Sept

MARSEILLE

L1–4

OLYMPIAKOS PIRAEUS

W2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	1	+5	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	+4	3
3	Sparta Praha	1	+3	3
4	Beşiktaş	1	+3	3
5	Union St. Gilloise	1	+3	3
6	Ferencvarosi TC	1	+2	3
7	Benfica	1	+2	3
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	+2	3
9	OFI	1	+2	3
10	Bournemouth	1	+1	3
11	Lyon	1	+1	3
12	Torreense	1	+1	3
13	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	+1	3
14	Red Bull Salzburg	1	+1	3
15	Sunderland	1	+1	3
16	Omonia Nicosia	1	+1	3
17	Sturm Graz	1	0	1
18	Rennes	1	0	1
19	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0	1
20	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0	1
21	Jagiellonia	1	−1	0
22	Real Sociedad	1	−1	0
23	Anderlecht	1	−1	0
24	Lillestrom	1	−1	0
25	Celta Vigo	1	−1	0
26	AZ Alkmaar	1	−1	0
27	Levski Sofia	1	−1	0
28	Celtic	1	−2	0
29	1899 Hoffenheim	1	−2	0
30	AC Milan	1	−2	0
31	Celje	1	−2	0
32	Marseille	1	−3	0
33	Ararat-Armenia	1	−3	0
34	Plzen	1	−3	0
35	Lech Poznan	1	−4	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	−5	0