Lillestrom v Real Sociedad prediction · UEFA Europa League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 23:00

Lillestrom 0–6 Real Sociedad REAL SOCIEDAD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Sociedad win~~54%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.315

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.177

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Sociedad win at 54%.
1′KICK-OFF Lillestrom v Real Sociedad
2′Much as we predicted: Real Sociedad was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 22–24–54
24′We published Real Sociedad at 54%. Our model now makes it 78%. 0–1 · 7–15–78
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Lillestrom 0–1 Real Sociedad
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Real Sociedad win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
25′Real Sociedad ahead on 25′ through Sergio Gómez. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–15–78
28′Sergio Gómez scores for Real Sociedad on 27′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–5–93
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Lillestrom 0–2 Real Sociedad · Sergio Gómez (assist Mikel Oyarzabal)
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Real Sociedad win: 54% at kick-off, 93% now
29′We published Real Sociedad at 54%. Our model now makes it 93%. 0–2 · 1–5–93
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Mamadou Sarr · Real Sociedad
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Real Sociedad win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
33′We published Real Sociedad at 54%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
33′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Lillestrom 0–3 Real Sociedad
34′33′: Luka Sučić on the scoresheet for Real Sociedad, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
45′HALF-TIME Lillestrom 0–3 Real Sociedad
45′SECOND HALF Lillestrom 0–3 Real Sociedad
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Lillestrom · On: Eric Kitolano · Off: Daniel Bassi
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Real Sociedad · On: Jon Pacheco · Off: Mamadou Sarr
51′PENALTY MISSED · 50' Thomas Lehne Olsen · Lillestrom
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Ruben Gabrielsen · Lillestrom
56′We published Real Sociedad at 54%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Jon Gorrotxategi · Real Sociedad
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Real Sociedad · On: Orri Steinn Óskarsson · Off: Carlos Soler Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Real Sociedad · On: Pablo Marin · Off: Takefusa Kubo
64′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Lillestrom 0–4 Real Sociedad
66′Real Sociedad ahead on 64′ through Orri Steinn Óskarsson. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Real Sociedad · On: Benat Turrientes · Off: Jon Gorrotxategi
72′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 0–5 · 0–0–100
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Lillestrom 0–5 Real Sociedad
73′Luka Sučić scores for Real Sociedad on 72′ — 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Lillestrom · On: Lars Ranger · Off: Sturla Ottesen
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Lillestrom · On: Fredrik Gulbrandsen · Off: Felix Vá
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Real Sociedad · On: Arsen Zakharyan · Off: Luka Sučić
79′6 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 0–6 · 0–0–100
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Lillestrom 0–6 Real Sociedad
83′80′: Arsen Zakharyan on the scoresheet for Real Sociedad, making it 0–6. 0–6 · 0–0–100
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Lillestrom · On: Gustav Nordh · Off: Thomas Lehne Olsen
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Lillestrom · On: Henrik Molvaer Melland · Off: Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim
90′Full time, 0–6. We called Real Sociedad at 54% — that one lands. 0–6 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Lillestrom 0–6 Real Sociedad
FTLillestrom 0–6 Real Sociedad · Real Sociedad win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Sociedad are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lillestrom 22%, draw 23%, Real Sociedad 54%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Lillestrom v Real SociedadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Lillestrom win22%

Draw23%

Real Sociedad win54%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueÅråsen Stadion

RefereeMohammad Al-Emara

Line-ups

Lillestrom

4-3-3

Real Sociedad

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lillestrom

Real Sociedad

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Eliteserien

Last match: 18 Oct · La Liga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
22	Real Sociedad	2	−1	1
23	Lillestrom	2	−1	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lillestrom

4-3-3

12 P. Dahlberg

3 S. Ottesen

5 S. Foss

28 R. Gabrielsen

26 Y. Paintsil

29 Y. Ibrahimaj

21 F. Ottosson

14 G. Nyheim

22 D. Bassi

10 T. Lehne Olsen

20 Vá

Coach · H. Ødegaard

Substitutes

7 · L. Alperud

11 · F. Elkær

8 · F. Gulbrandsen

1 · S. Hagerup

17 · E. Kitolano

47 · S. Kristiansen

18 · K. Krygård

16 · H. Melland

15 · G. Nordh

2 · L. Ranger

25 · S. Akanji

Real Sociedad

4-4-2

13 Unai Marrero

5 Zubeldia

6 Jon Martín

19 M. Sarr

17 Sergio Gómez

14 T. Kubo

4 Jon Gorrotxategi

18 Carlos Soler

11 Gonçalo Guedes

24 L. Sučić

10 Mikel Oyarzabal

Coach · P. Matarazzo

Substitutes

23 · A. Zakharyan

8 · Beñat Turrientes

1 · Álex Remiro

16 · Jon Pacheco

9 · O. Óskarsson

12 · J. Ochieng

3 · Aihen Muñoz

15 · Pablo Marín

29 · Alex Garcia

28 · A. Lebarbier

7 · Barrenetxea

22 · Héctor Fort

Our number · real sociedad winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

54% The market66%

Us54%

~~Market~~66%

We make Real Sociedad a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lillestrom v Real Sociedad~~1.11 – 1.85

~~Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 20 Aug~~W0 D3 L1 · W0 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 1~~23 v 22

~~The market · Real Sociedad win~~66% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Sociedad win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lillestrom win	22%	15%	+7
Draw	23%	19%	+4
Real Sociedad win	54%	66%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	57%	64%	−7
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	80%	82%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	43%	−9
Lillestrom or draw	46%	34%	+12
Lillestrom clean sheet	16%	–	–
Real Sociedad clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.5 9.2 8.8 5.4 2.5 1 5.4 11.0 9.8 6.1 2.8 2 3.2 5.9 5.5 3.4 3 2.2 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lillestrom down, Real Sociedad across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Lillestrom play in Eliteserien, Real Sociedad in La Liga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Lillestrom are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Lillestrom, 1.85 for Real Sociedad. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 20 Aug

LILLESTROM

DDLD0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

REAL SOCIEDAD

LD1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	2	+6	6
2	Bayer Leverkusen	2	+6	6
3	Benfica	2	+5	6
4	Beşiktaş	2	+4	6
5	Bournemouth	2	+4	6
6	Omonia Nicosia	2	+4	6
7	Ferencvarosi TC	2	+3	6
8	Lyon	2	+2	6
9	Sunderland	2	+2	6
10	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	+2	6
11	Sparta Praha	2	+3	4
12	Union St. Gilloise	2	+3	4
13	Rennes	2	+1	4
14	Dinamo Zagreb	2	+1	4
15	Crystal Palace	2	+3	3
16	AC Milan	2	+2	3
17	Jagiellonia	2	+1	3
18	OFI	2	+1	3
19	Torreense	2	0	3
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	0	3
21	Red Bull Salzburg	2	−3	3
22	Real Sociedad	2	−1	1
23	Lillestrom	2	−1	1
24	Levski Sofia	2	−1	1
25	Hapoel Beer Sheva	2	−1	1
26	Sturm Graz	2	−3	1
27	NEC Nijmegen	2	−5	1
28	Celta Vigo	2	−2	0
29	Anderlecht	2	−2	0
30	1899 Hoffenheim	2	−3	0
31	Plzen	2	−4	0
32	Marseille	2	−4	0
33	Celtic	2	−5	0
34	Ararat-Armenia	2	−5	0
35	Celje	2	−5	0
36	Lech Poznan	2	−8	0