Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen prediction · UEFA Europa League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 20:30

Lech Poznan 0–4 Bayer Leverkusen BAYER LEVERKUSEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bayer Leverkusen win~~59%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.256

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.225

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bayer Leverkusen win at 59%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bayer Leverkusen 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 20–21–59
1′KICK-OFF Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen
16′SUBSTITUTION · 15' Lech Poznan · On: Terry Yegbe · Off: Wojciech Monka
18′SUBSTITUTION · 18' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Patrik Schick · Off: Martin Terrier
30′Bayer Leverkusen ahead on 29′ through Patrik Schick. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–15–79
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Lech Poznan 0–1 Bayer Leverkusen · Patrik Schick (penalty)
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Bayer Leverkusen win: 59% at kick-off, 79% now
31′We said Bayer Leverkusen at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 0–1 · 6–15–79
32′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–1 · 6–15–79
34′Malik Tillman scores for Bayer Leverkusen on 32′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
34′⚽ GOAL · 32' Lech Poznan 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen · Malik Tillman
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Bayer Leverkusen win: 59% at kick-off, 94% now
35′We said Bayer Leverkusen at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
39′We said Bayer Leverkusen at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Mateusz Skrzypczak · Lech Poznan
42′41′: Patrik Schick on the scoresheet for Bayer Leverkusen, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Lech Poznan 0–3 Bayer Leverkusen · Patrik Schick (penalty)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Bayer Leverkusen win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
45′HALF-TIME Lech Poznan 0–3 Bayer Leverkusen
46′SECOND HALF Lech Poznan 0–3 Bayer Leverkusen
57′We said Bayer Leverkusen at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lech Poznan · On: Y. Agnero · Off: Mikael Ishak
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lech Poznan · On: Filip Jagiełło · Off: Leo Bengtsson
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lech Poznan · On: Daniel Håkans · Off: Patrick Walemark
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Moussa Diaby · Off: Nathan Tella
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Robert Andrich · Off: Aleix García
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Facundo Medina · Off: Miguel Gutiérrez
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Robert Andrich · Bayer Leverkusen
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Lech Poznan · On: Pablo Rodriguez Delgado · Off: Gustav Berggren
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Bayer Leverkusen · On: Afonso Moreira · Off: Patrik Schick
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Moussa Diaby · Bayer Leverkusen
89′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Lech Poznan 0–4 Bayer Leverkusen
90′Bayer Leverkusen ahead on 89′ through Ibrahim Maza. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
91′Bayer Leverkusen ahead on 88′ through Ibrahim Maza. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Lech Poznan 0–4 Bayer Leverkusen
FTLech Poznan 0–4 Bayer Leverkusen · Bayer Leverkusen win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bayer Leverkusen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lech Poznan 20%, draw 21%, Bayer Leverkusen 59%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Lech Poznan v Bayer LeverkusenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Lech Poznan win20%

Draw21%

Bayer Leverkusen win59%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueStadion Miejski

RefereeMilos Milanovic

Line-ups

Lech Poznan

4-2-3-1

Bayer Leverkusen

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lech Poznan

Bayer Leverkusen

5Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 10 Oct · the German Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	+2	3
35	Lech Poznan	1	−4	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lech Poznan

4-2-3-1

1 M. Lis

2 Joel Pereira

72 M. Skrzypczak

27 W. Mońka

15 M. Gurgul

5 G. Berggren

43 A. Kozubal

10 P. Wålemark

9 M. Ishak

14 L. Bengtsson

77 L. Palma

Coach · N. Frederiksen

Substitutes

59 · T. Yegbe

56 · W. Szymczak

21 · Pablo Rodríguez

33 · M. Pruchniewski

24 · F. Jagiełło

11 · D. Håkans

53 · K. Delikat

7 · Y. Agnero

55 · Piotr Bartczak

Bayer Leverkusen

4-2-3-1

1 M. Flekken

17 Lucas Vázquez

5 L. Badé

12 E. Tapsoba

3 Miguel Gutiérrez

6 E. Fernández

24 Aleix García

23 N. Tella

10 M. Tillman

30 I. Maza

11 M. Terrier

Coach · Carles Martínez

Substitutes

14 · P. Schick

4 · J. Quansah

9 · Afonso Moreira

2 · F. Medina

36 · N. Lomb

19 · M. Diaby

28 · J. Blaswich

8 · R. Andrich

Our number · bayer leverkusen winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

59% The market61%

Us59%

~~Market~~61%

We make Bayer Leverkusen a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen~~1.16 – 2.10

~~Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 6 Aug~~W3 D1 L1 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~35 v 8

~~The market · Bayer Leverkusen win~~61% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bayer Leverkusen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lech Poznan win	20%	18%	+2
Draw	21%	20%	+1
Bayer Leverkusen win	59%	61%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	63%	68%	−5
Both teams to score	61%	64%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	84%	84%	0
Over 3.5 goals	41%	48%	−7
Lech Poznan or draw	41%	39%	+2
Lech Poznan clean sheet	12%	–	–
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.8%

0123450 4.1 7.7 8.4 5.9 3.1 1 4.1 9.6 9.8 6.9 3.6 2 2.6 5.4 5.7 4.0 2.1 3 2.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lech Poznan down, Bayer Leverkusen across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Lech Poznan play in Ekstraklasa, Bayer Leverkusen in the German Bundesliga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Lech Poznan are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Lech Poznan, 2.10 for Bayer Leverkusen. Most likely score 1–2.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 6 Aug

LECH POZNAN

WWWDL1–0 · 5–0 · 7–0 · 2–2 · 0–4

BAYER LEVERKUSEN

W2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	1	+5	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	+4	3
3	Sparta Praha	1	+3	3
4	Beşiktaş	1	+3	3
5	Union St. Gilloise	1	+3	3
6	Ferencvarosi TC	1	+2	3
7	Benfica	1	+2	3
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	+2	3
9	OFI	1	+2	3
10	Bournemouth	1	+1	3
11	Lyon	1	+1	3
12	Torreense	1	+1	3
13	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	+1	3
14	Red Bull Salzburg	1	+1	3
15	Sunderland	1	+1	3
16	Omonia Nicosia	1	+1	3
17	Sturm Graz	1	0	1
18	Rennes	1	0	1
19	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0	1
20	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0	1
21	Jagiellonia	1	−1	0
22	Real Sociedad	1	−1	0
23	Anderlecht	1	−1	0
24	Lillestrom	1	−1	0
25	Celta Vigo	1	−1	0
26	AZ Alkmaar	1	−1	0
27	Levski Sofia	1	−1	0
28	Celtic	1	−2	0
29	1899 Hoffenheim	1	−2	0
30	AC Milan	1	−2	0
31	Celje	1	−2	0
32	Marseille	1	−3	0
33	Ararat-Armenia	1	−3	0
34	Plzen	1	−3	0
35	Lech Poznan	1	−4	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	−5	0