Jagiellonia v Ararat-Armenia prediction · UEFA Europa League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 22:30

Jagiellonia 3–1 Ararat-Armenia JAGIELLONIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jagiellonia win~~69%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.143

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.172

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jagiellonia win at 69%.
1′Much as we predicted: Jagiellonia was 69% before kick-off and our model makes it 69% now. 0–0 · 69–18–12
1′KICK-OFF Jagiellonia v Ararat-Armenia
11′We said Jagiellonia at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–1 · 41–26–33
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Jagiellonia 0–1 Ararat-Armenia
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Jagiellonia win: 69% at kick-off, 41% now
12′A goal for Ararat-Armenia on 11′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 41–26–33
13′13′: Kamil Jóźwiak on the scoresheet for Jagiellonia, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 66–21–13
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Jagiellonia 1–1 Ararat-Armenia
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Jagiellonia win: 69% at kick-off, 66% now
17′SUBSTITUTION · 17' Ararat-Armenia · On: Zhirayr Shaghoyan · Off: Zidane Banjaqui
21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Taras Romanczuk · Jagiellonia
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Bruno Wilson · Ararat-Armenia
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Jagiellonia win: 69% at kick-off, 59% now
38′We published Jagiellonia at 69%. Our model now makes it 87%. 2–1 · 87–11–3
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Jagiellonia 2–1 Ararat-Armenia
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Jagiellonia win: 69% at kick-off, 87% now
40′Jagiellonia ahead on 38′ through Rodrigo Conceição. 2–1. 2–1 · 87–11–3
45′SECOND HALF Jagiellonia 2–1 Ararat-Armenia
48′HALF-TIME Jagiellonia 2–1 Ararat-Armenia
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Manuel Jorge da Silva Cruz · Ararat-Armenia
51′We published Jagiellonia at 69%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–1 · 98–2–0
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Jagiellonia 3–1 Ararat-Armenia
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Jagiellonia win: 69% at kick-off, 98% now
52′Ousmane Sow scores for Jagiellonia on 51′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
53′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 98–2–0
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Elvin Tera · Ararat-Armenia
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Jagiellonia win: 69% at kick-off, 99% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Jagiellonia · On: Jeremy Agbonifo · Off: Ousmane Sow
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Ararat-Armenia · On: Bernardo Oliveira Dias · Off: Elvin Tera
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Jagiellonia · On: Eryk Kozlowski · Off: Jesús Imaz
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Jagiellonia · On: Dušan Stojinović · Off: Kamil Jóźwiak
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Ararat-Armenia · On: Karen Muradyan · Off: Luís Felipe Fernandes Rodrigues
77′We published Jagiellonia at 69%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Ararat-Armenia · On: Carlos Henrique França Freires · Off: Artur Serobyan
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Ararat-Armenia · On: Arayik Eloyan · Off: Sandro Lima
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Jagiellonia · On: Aleksandar·Cirkovic · Off: Kajetan·Szmyt
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Jagiellonia · On: Sergio Lozano · Off: Taras Romanczuk
85′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Dušan Stojinović · Jagiellonia
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Eryk Kozlowski · Jagiellonia
FTFULL TIME Jagiellonia 3–1 Ararat-Armenia
FTJagiellonia 3–1 Ararat-Armenia · Jagiellonia win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jagiellonia are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jagiellonia 69%, draw 19%, Ararat-Armenia 12%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Jagiellonia v Ararat-ArmeniaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Jagiellonia win69%

Draw19%

Ararat-Armenia win12%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueStadion Miejski w Białymstoku

RefereeAnastasios Papapetrou

Line-ups

Jagiellonia

4-4-2

Ararat-Armenia

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jagiellonia

Ararat-Armenia

5Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
21	Jagiellonia	1	−1	0
33	Ararat-Armenia	1	−3	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Jagiellonia

4-4-2

50 S. Abramowicz

27 Rodrigo Conceição

5 Bernardo Vital

4 Y. Kobayashi

20 B. Wdowik

72 K. Jóźwiak

6 T. Romanczuk

19 A. Klynge

7 K. Szmyt

11 Jesús Imaz

30 O. Sow

Coach · A. Siemieniec

Substitutes

10 · J. Agbonifo

32 · A. Ćirković

14 · H. Finndell

44 · A. Konstantopoulos

21 · Sergio Lozano

23 · Guilherme Manuel Serrão Montóia

1 · M. Perchel

3 · D. Stojinović

85 · Eryk Kozlowski

Ararat-Armenia

3-4-3

98 João Bravim

43 Bruno Wilson

17 M. Carlier

5 Luís Felipe

2 Hugo Oliveira

8 J. Balanta

20 A. Tera

16 E. Grigoryan

77 A. Serobyan

91 Sandro Lima

11 Zidane Banjaqui

Coach · Tulipa

Substitutes

10 · A. Ambartsumyan

7 · Z. Shaghoyan

14 · Bruno Pereira

25 · A. Ndour

19 · K. Muradyan

47 · A. Malis

95 · França

9 · A. Eloyan

70 · Bernardo Oliveira Dias

1 · A. Nersesyan

Our number · jagiellonia winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

69% The market66%

Us69%

~~Market~~66%

We make Jagiellonia a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jagiellonia v Ararat-Armenia~~2.21 – 0.79

~~Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 6 Aug~~W3 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~21 v 33

~~The market · Jagiellonia win~~66% · ours 69%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Jagiellonia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 67% to 66% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jagiellonia win	69%	66%	+3
Draw	19%	20%	−1
Ararat-Armenia win	12%	14%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	58%	60%	−2
Both teams to score	49%	53%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	81%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	39%	−4
Jagiellonia or draw	88%	86%	+2
Jagiellonia clean sheet	45%	–	–
Ararat-Armenia clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.1%

0123450 5.3 3.7 1 10.7 9.0 3.4 2 12.1 9.6 3.8 3 8.9 7.1 2.8 4 4.9 3.9 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Jagiellonia down, Ararat-Armenia across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Jagiellonia play in Ekstraklasa, Ararat-Armenia in Premier League (Armenia).

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Jagiellonia are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

2.21 goals for Jagiellonia, 0.79 for Ararat-Armenia. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 6 Aug

JAGIELLONIA

WDWWL2–1 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 1–2

ARARAT-ARMENIA

DWL1–1 · 1–0 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	1	+5	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	+4	3
3	Sparta Praha	1	+3	3
4	Beşiktaş	1	+3	3
5	Union St. Gilloise	1	+3	3
6	Ferencvarosi TC	1	+2	3
7	Benfica	1	+2	3
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	+2	3
9	OFI	1	+2	3
10	Bournemouth	1	+1	3
11	Lyon	1	+1	3
12	Torreense	1	+1	3
13	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	+1	3
14	Red Bull Salzburg	1	+1	3
15	Sunderland	1	+1	3
16	Omonia Nicosia	1	+1	3
17	Sturm Graz	1	0	1
18	Rennes	1	0	1
19	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0	1
20	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0	1
21	Jagiellonia	1	−1	0
22	Real Sociedad	1	−1	0
23	Anderlecht	1	−1	0
24	Lillestrom	1	−1	0
25	Celta Vigo	1	−1	0
26	AZ Alkmaar	1	−1	0
27	Levski Sofia	1	−1	0
28	Celtic	1	−2	0
29	1899 Hoffenheim	1	−2	0
30	AC Milan	1	−2	0
31	Celje	1	−2	0
32	Marseille	1	−3	0
33	Ararat-Armenia	1	−3	0
34	Plzen	1	−3	0
35	Lech Poznan	1	−4	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	−5	0