Jagiellonia v Anderlecht prediction · UEFA Europa League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 23:00

Jagiellonia 0–3 Anderlecht ANDERLECHT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Anderlecht win~~40%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.546

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.503

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Anderlecht win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Anderlecht 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 33–27–40
1′KICK-OFF Jagiellonia v Anderlecht
21′We said Anderlecht at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 0–1 · 12–20–68
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Jagiellonia 0–1 Anderlecht
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Anderlecht win: 40% at kick-off, 68% now
22′Anderlecht ahead on 22′ through Mihajlo Cvetkovic. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–20–68
23′Anderlecht ahead on 21′ through Mihajlo Cvetkovic. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–20–68
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 10–20–69
32′We said Anderlecht at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 10–21–70
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Anderlecht win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Jagiellonia · On: Ousmane Sow · Off: Hampus Finndell
45′SECOND HALF Jagiellonia 0–1 Anderlecht
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Thelo Aasgaard · Anderlecht
47′HALF-TIME Jagiellonia 0–1 Anderlecht
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Rodrigo Conceição · Jagiellonia
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Bernardo Vital · Jagiellonia
55′We said Anderlecht at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Jagiellonia · On: Jeremy Agbonifo · Off: Kamil Jóźwiak
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Jagiellonia · On: Aleksandar·Cirkovic · Off: Kajetan·Szmyt
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Anderlecht · On: Enric Llansana · Off: Lukas Ambros
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Anderlecht · On: Jayden Onia-Seke · Off: Tristan Degreef
67′We said Anderlecht at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Anderlecht win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Eryk Kozlowski · Jagiellonia
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Enric Llansana · Anderlecht
72′We said Anderlecht at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Jagiellonia 0–2 Anderlecht
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Anderlecht win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
74′Marten Winkler scores for Anderlecht on 72′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
79′We said Anderlecht at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Jagiellonia · On: Taras Romanczuk · Off: Ferslev Anders Klynge
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Anderlecht · On: Marco Kana · Off: Mario Stroeykens
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Anderlecht · On: Adriano Bertaccini · Off: Mihajlo Cvetkovic
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Jagiellonia 0–3 Anderlecht
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Anderlecht win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
80′80′: Jayden Onia-Seke on the scoresheet for Anderlecht, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
81′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Jayden Onia-Seke · Anderlecht
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Anderlecht · On: Oliver Antman · Off: Marten Winkler
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Jagiellonia · On: Jesús Imaz · Off: Nik Prelec
95′0–3 at the end. Our 40% on Anderlecht comes in. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Jagiellonia 0–3 Anderlecht
FTJagiellonia 0–3 Anderlecht · Anderlecht win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Anderlecht are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jagiellonia 33%, draw 27%, Anderlecht 40%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Jagiellonia v AnderlechtBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Jagiellonia win33%

Draw27%

Anderlecht win40%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueStadion Miejski w Białymstoku

RefereeOndrej Berka

Line-ups

Jagiellonia

4-3-3

Anderlecht

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jagiellonia

Anderlecht

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Ekstraklasa

Last match: 18 Oct · the Belgian Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Jagiellonia	2	+1	3
29	Anderlecht	2	−2	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Jagiellonia

4-3-3

50 S. Abramowicz

27 Rodrigo Conceição

5 Bernardo Vital

4 Y. Kobayashi

23 Guilherme Manuel Serrão Montóia

19 A. Klynge

85 Eryk Kozlowski

14 H. Finndell

72 K. Jóźwiak

99 N. Prelec

7 K. Szmyt

Coach · A. Siemieniec

Substitutes

32 · A. Ćirković

11 · Jesús Imaz

44 · A. Konstantopoulos

21 · Sergio Lozano

1 · M. Perchel

6 · T. Romanczuk

30 · O. Sow

3 · D. Stojinović

17 · Y. Sylla

20 · B. Wdowik

10 · J. Agbonifo

Anderlecht

4-3-3

26 C. Coosemans

50 K. Barry

4 G. Biancone

27 L. Pétrot

5 O. Reabciuk

18 L. Ambros

29 M. Stroeykens

19 T. Aasgaard

10 M. Winkler

9 M. Cvetković

83 T. Degreef

Coach · Vítor Bruno

Substitutes

11 · O. Antman

14 · D. Sikan

49 · Jayden Onia Seke

79 · A. Maamar

24 · E. Llansana

55 · M. Kana

32 · J. Heekeren

91 · A. Bertaccini

21 · T. Bentayeb

6 · L. Augustinsson

8 · R. Amané

53 · N. Cobiella

Our number · anderlecht winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 22 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

40% The market42%

Us40%

~~Market~~42%

We make Anderlecht a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jagiellonia v Anderlecht~~1.26 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in UEFA Europa League this season · since 6 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 0~~17 v 29

~~The market · Anderlecht win~~42% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Anderlecht win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jagiellonia win	33%	31%	+2
Draw	27%	27%	0
Anderlecht win	40%	42%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	54%	−4
Both teams to score	54%	58%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	33%	−5
Jagiellonia or draw	60%	58%	+2
Jagiellonia clean sheet	25%	–	–
Anderlecht clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.4 9.4 6.8 3.2 1 8.4 12.7 8.6 4.0 2 5.6 7.8 5.5 2.5 3 2.3 3.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jagiellonia down, Anderlecht across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Jagiellonia play in Ekstraklasa, Anderlecht in Jupiler Pro League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Jagiellonia are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Jagiellonia, 1.40 for Anderlecht. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in UEFA Europa League this season · since 6 Aug

JAGIELLONIA

WDWWLW2–1 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–1

ANDERLECHT

WWWWLL1–0 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	2	+6	6
2	Bayer Leverkusen	2	+6	6
3	Benfica	2	+5	6
4	Beşiktaş	2	+4	6
5	Bournemouth	2	+4	6
6	Omonia Nicosia	2	+4	6
7	Ferencvarosi TC	2	+3	6
8	Lyon	2	+2	6
9	Sunderland	2	+2	6
10	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	+2	6
11	Sparta Praha	2	+3	4
12	Union St. Gilloise	2	+3	4
13	Rennes	2	+1	4
14	Dinamo Zagreb	2	+1	4
15	Crystal Palace	2	+3	3
16	AC Milan	2	+2	3
17	Jagiellonia	2	+1	3
18	OFI	2	+1	3
19	Torreense	2	0	3
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	0	3
21	Red Bull Salzburg	2	−3	3
22	Real Sociedad	2	−1	1
23	Lillestrom	2	−1	1
24	Levski Sofia	2	−1	1
25	Hapoel Beer Sheva	2	−1	1
26	Sturm Graz	2	−3	1
27	NEC Nijmegen	2	−5	1
28	Celta Vigo	2	−2	0
29	Anderlecht	2	−2	0
30	1899 Hoffenheim	2	−3	0
31	Plzen	2	−4	0
32	Marseille	2	−4	0
33	Celtic	2	−5	0
34	Ararat-Armenia	2	−5	0
35	Celje	2	−5	0
36	Lech Poznan	2	−8	0