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Ferencvarosi TC v Torreense

Ferencvarosi TC

4–1Full time

Torreense

UEFA Europa League · THU 22 OCT · Groupama Aréna

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 20:28

Ferencvarosi TC 4–1 Torreense FERENCVAROSI TC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ferencvarosi TC win~~59%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.251

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.106

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ferencvarosi TC win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ferencvarosi TC was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–24–17
1′KICK-OFF Ferencvarosi TC v Torreense
9′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Kristoffer Zachariassen · Ferencvarosi TC
18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Alejandro Alfaro · Torreense
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Jonathan Mutombo Mawesi · Torreense
21′We published Ferencvarosi TC at 59%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–4
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Ferencvarosi TC 1–0 Torreense
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Ferencvarosi TC win: 59% at kick-off, 83% now
22′Bamidele Isa Yusuf scores for Ferencvarosi TC on 20′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–4
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Ferencvarosi TC 1–1 Torreense
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Ferencvarosi TC win: 59% at kick-off, 53% now
24′23′: Manuel Pozo on the scoresheet for Torreense, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 53–30–17
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Ferencvarosi TC win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
40′We said Ferencvarosi TC at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 1–1 · 47–36–16
45′HALF-TIME Ferencvarosi TC 1–1 Torreense
46′We said Ferencvarosi TC at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–39–16
46′SECOND HALF Ferencvarosi TC 1–1 Torreense
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Ferencvarosi TC win 42%)
55′We said Ferencvarosi TC at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–46–15
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Ferencvarosi TC win: 59% at kick-off, 39% now
57′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–1 · 38–47–15
58′Ferencvarosi TC ahead on 58′ through Mariano Gómez. 2–1. 2–1 · 86–13–2
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Ferencvarosi TC · On: marius corbu · Off: Ádám Madarász
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Ferencvarosi TC 2–1 Torreense · Mariano Gómez
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Ferencvarosi TC win: 59% at kick-off, 86% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Ferencvarosi TC win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 48%)
59′We published Ferencvarosi TC at 59%. Our model now makes it 86%. 2–1 · 86–12–2
60′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 86–12–2
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Torreense · On: Dany Jean · Off: Alejandro Alfaro
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Torreense · On: Nuha Jatta · Off: Manuel Pozo Corrected
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Bamidele Isa Yusuf · Ferencvarosi TC
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Ferencvarosi TC win: 59% at kick-off, 89% now
73′We published Ferencvarosi TC at 59%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Torreense · On: Malik Abubakari · Off: musa drammeh
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Torreense · On: L. Quintero · Off: Manuel Pozo
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Ferencvarosi TC · On: Habib Maïga · Off: Daniel Arzani
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Ferencvarosi TC · On: Lenny Joseph · Off: Bamidele Isa Yusuf
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' marius corbu · Ferencvarosi TC
80′We published Ferencvarosi TC at 59%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
80′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Ferencvarosi TC 3–1 Torreense
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Ferencvarosi TC win: 59% at kick-off, over 99% now
81′An own goal by Torreense's Mohamed Ali Diadie on 80′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Torreense · On: Andre Simões · Off: João Marques
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Ferencvarosi TC · On: Krisztian Lisztes · Off: Veljko Birmančević
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Ferencvarosi TC · On: Jonathan Levi · Off: Kristoffer Zachariassen
90′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
90′89′: Krisztian Lisztes on the scoresheet for Ferencvarosi TC, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Ferencvarosi TC 4–1 Torreense
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Olivér Nagy · Ferencvarosi TC
FTFULL TIME Ferencvarosi TC 4–1 Torreense
FTFerencvarosi TC 4–1 Torreense · Ferencvarosi TC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ferencvarosi TC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ferencvarosi TC 59%, draw 24%, Torreense 17%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Ferencvarosi TC v TorreenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Ferencvarosi TC win59%

Draw24%

Torreense win17%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueGroupama Aréna

RefereeJerome Brisard

Line-ups

Ferencvarosi TC

4-2-3-1

Torreense

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ferencvarosi TC

Torreense

4Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · NB I

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Ferencvarosi TC	2	+3	6
19	Torreense	2	0	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ferencvarosi TC

4-2-3-1

63 Dániel István Radnóti

54 O. Nagy

4 M. Gómez

5 G. Zohoré

47 C. O'Dowda

72 Ádám Madarász

6 Á. Nagy

15 D. Arzani

16 K. Zachariassen

7 V. Birmančević

11 B. Yusuf

Coach · B. Borbely

Substitutes

80 · H. Maïga

18 · Á. Bagi

20 · Cadu

17 · M. Corbu

90 · D. Dibusz

75 · L. Joseph

10 · J. Levi

76 · K. Lisztes

1 · Á. Varga

88 · P. Rommens

28 · T. Raemaekers

14 · A. Osváth

Torreense

4-2-3-1

1 Lucas Paes

45 J. Mutombo

5 M. Diadie

4 Volnei Feltes

23 Javi Vázquez

6 A. Oudrhiri

8 Alejandro Alfaro

11 Manu Pozo

33 João Marques

19 K. Zoabi

17 M. Drammeh

Coach · Luís Tralhão

Substitutes

2 · Stopira

27 · M. Abubakari

31 · Adriel

26 · André Simões

29 · L. Quintero

7 · D. Jean

21 · Nuha Jatta

22 · David Bruno

44 · S. Henriksen

14 · Jorge Aguirre

3 · Juan María Alcedo

87 · David Liz Castro Morgado

Our number · ferencvarosi tc winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 21 Oct 04:09 · locked at kick-off

59% The market74%

Us59%

~~Market~~74%

We make Ferencvarosi TC a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ferencvarosi TC v Torreense~~1.74 – 0.80

~~Form · last six in UEFA Europa League this season · since 5 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 3~~7 v 19

~~The market · Ferencvarosi TC win~~74% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ferencvarosi TC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ferencvarosi TC win	59%	74%	−15
Draw	24%	17%	+7
Torreense win	17%	9%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	47%	60%	−13
Both teams to score	46%	47%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	80%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	25%	39%	−14
Ferencvarosi TC or draw	83%	91%	−8
Ferencvarosi TC clean sheet	45%	–	–
Torreense clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 8.2 5.9 2.5 1 13.3 11.3 4.4 2 11.9 9.6 3.8 3 6.9 5.5 2.2 4 3.0 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ferencvarosi TC down, Torreense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Ferencvarosi TC play in NB I, Torreense in Segunda Liga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Ferencvarosi TC are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Ferencvarosi TC, 0.80 for Torreense. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 17:15. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in UEFA Europa League this season · since 5 Aug

FERENCVAROSI TC

WDWWWW1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 3–1 · 2–1

TORREENSE

WL2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	2	+6	6
2	Bayer Leverkusen	2	+6	6
3	Benfica	2	+5	6
4	Beşiktaş	2	+4	6
5	Bournemouth	2	+4	6
6	Omonia Nicosia	2	+4	6
7	Ferencvarosi TC	2	+3	6
8	Lyon	2	+2	6
9	Sunderland	2	+2	6
10	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	+2	6
11	Sparta Praha	2	+3	4
12	Union St. Gilloise	2	+3	4
13	Rennes	2	+1	4
14	Dinamo Zagreb	2	+1	4
15	Crystal Palace	2	+3	3
16	AC Milan	2	+2	3
17	Jagiellonia	2	+1	3
18	OFI	2	+1	3
19	Torreense	2	0	3
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	0	3
21	Red Bull Salzburg	2	−3	3
22	Real Sociedad	2	−1	1
23	Lillestrom	2	−1	1
24	Levski Sofia	2	−1	1
25	Hapoel Beer Sheva	2	−1	1
26	Sturm Graz	2	−3	1
27	NEC Nijmegen	2	−5	1
28	Celta Vigo	2	−2	0
29	Anderlecht	2	−2	0
30	1899 Hoffenheim	2	−3	0
31	Plzen	2	−4	0
32	Marseille	2	−4	0
33	Celtic	2	−5	0
34	Ararat-Armenia	2	−5	0
35	Celje	2	−5	0
36	Lech Poznan	2	−8	0