Ferencvarosi TC v Plzen prediction · UEFA Europa League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 22:30

Ferencvarosi TC 2–1 Plzen FERENCVAROSI TC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ferencvarosi TC win~~47%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.424

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.382

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ferencvarosi TC win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ferencvarosi TC was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–27
1′KICK-OFF Ferencvarosi TC v Plzen
8′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Attila Osváth · Ferencvarosi TC
22′7 shots for Plzen, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 43–30–26
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Ferencvarosi TC win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
45′HALF-TIME Ferencvarosi TC 0–0 Plzen
46′SECOND HALF Ferencvarosi TC 0–0 Plzen
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Ferencvarosi TC win 36%)
49′We published Ferencvarosi TC at 47%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Ferencvarosi TC 1–0 Plzen
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Ferencvarosi TC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Ferencvarosi TC win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 18%)
50′49′: Kristoffer Zachariassen on the scoresheet for Ferencvarosi TC, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–18–5
60′We published Ferencvarosi TC at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Plzen · On: Baboucarr Faal · Off: Christopher Kabongo
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Plzen · On: Tomáš Ladra · Off: Jiří Maxim Panoš
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Plzen · On: Lukáš Červ · Off: Patrik Hrošovský
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Ferencvarosi TC · On: Daniel Arzani · Off: Krisztian Lisztes
72′We published Ferencvarosi TC at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Ferencvarosi TC win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Plzen · On: Salim Fago Lawal · Off: Alexandr Sojka
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Plzen · On: Denis Višinský · Off: Amar Memić
81′We published Ferencvarosi TC at 47%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–9–1
82′Ferencvarosi TC ahead on 81′ through Kristoffer Zachariassen. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′PENALTY · 77' Ferencvarosi TC
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Ferencvarosi TC 2–0 Plzen · Kristoffer Zachariassen (penalty)
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Ferencvarosi TC win: 47% at kick-off, over 99% now
83′We published Ferencvarosi TC at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Ferencvarosi TC · On: Callum O'Dowda · Off: Veljko Birmančević
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Ferencvarosi TC · On: Habib Maïga · Off: Bamidele Isa Yusuf
90′We published Ferencvarosi TC at 47%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–1 · 97–3–0
90′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 97–3–0
90′Denis Višinský scores for Plzen on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Ferencvarosi TC 2–1 Plzen
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Ferencvarosi TC · On: Ádám Madarász · Off: Kristoffer Zachariassen
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Ferencvarosi TC · On: Jonathan Levi · Off: marius corbu
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Radoslav Kováč · Plzen
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Lukáš Červ · Plzen
97′Plzen have had 18 attempts to 12 and it is still 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Toon Raemaekers · Ferencvarosi TC
FTFULL TIME Ferencvarosi TC 2–1 Plzen
FTFerencvarosi TC 2–1 Plzen · Ferencvarosi TC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ferencvarosi TC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ferencvarosi TC 47%, draw 26%, Plzen 27%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Ferencvarosi TC v PlzenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Ferencvarosi TC win47%

Draw26%

Plzen win27%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueGroupama Aréna

RefereeDamian Sylwestrzak

Line-ups

Ferencvarosi TC

4-2-3-1

Plzen

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ferencvarosi TC

Plzen

5Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · NB I

Last match: 10 Oct · Czech Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ferencvarosi TC	1	+2	3
34	Plzen	1	−3	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ferencvarosi TC

4-2-3-1

63 Dániel István Radnóti

14 A. Osváth

28 T. Raemaekers

4 M. Gómez

20 Cadu

17 M. Corbu

6 Á. Nagy

11 B. Yusuf

16 K. Zachariassen

7 V. Birmančević

76 K. Lisztes

Coach · B. Borbely

Substitutes

18 · Á. Bagi

15 · D. Arzani

90 · D. Dibusz

71 · C. Lakatos

10 · J. Levi

72 · Ádám Madarász

80 · H. Maïga

54 · O. Nagy

47 · C. O'Dowda

88 · P. Rommens

5 · G. Zohoré

33 · L. Őri

Plzen

4-2-3-1

1 D. Ťapaj

29 A. Gabriel

40 S. Dweh

98 F. Prebsl

14 Merchas Doski

36 S. Pirgić

17 P. Hrošovský

12 A. Sojka

20 Jiří Maxim Panoš

99 A. Memić

25 C. Kabongo

Coach · R. Kováč

Substitutes

23 · B. Faal

18 · T. Ladra

7 · S. Lawal

2 · T. Pališčák

19 · C. Souaré

10 · M. Toure

3 · D. Vavro

9 · D. Višinský

11 · M. Vydra

44 · F. Wiegele

30 · V. Baier

6 · L. Červ

Our number · ferencvarosi tc winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 00:27 · locked at kick-off

47% The market50%

Us47%

~~Market~~50%

We make Ferencvarosi TC a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ferencvarosi TC v Plzen~~1.55 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in UEFA Europa League this season · since 30 July~~W4 D2 L0 · W1 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 0~~6 v 34

~~The market · Ferencvarosi TC win~~50% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ferencvarosi TC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 49% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ferencvarosi TC win	47%	50%	−3
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Plzen win	27%	26%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	50%	57%	−7
Both teams to score	53%	59%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	75%	79%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	28%	36%	−8
Ferencvarosi TC or draw	73%	74%	−1
Ferencvarosi TC clean sheet	33%	–	–
Plzen clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.3 7.4 4.3 1 10.3 12.4 6.7 2.5 2 8.3 9.3 5.2 3 4.3 4.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ferencvarosi TC down, Plzen across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Ferencvarosi TC play in NB I, Plzen in Czech Liga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Ferencvarosi TC are at home.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Ferencvarosi TC, 1.12 for Plzen. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~FER 1–1 PLZ · PLZ 3–0 FER · FER 1–0 PLZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in UEFA Europa League this season · since 30 July

FERENCVAROSI TC

DWDWWW2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 3–1

PLZEN

LWL0–3 · 4–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	1	+5	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	+4	3
3	Sparta Praha	1	+3	3
4	Beşiktaş	1	+3	3
5	Union St. Gilloise	1	+3	3
6	Ferencvarosi TC	1	+2	3
7	Benfica	1	+2	3
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	+2	3
9	OFI	1	+2	3
10	Bournemouth	1	+1	3
11	Lyon	1	+1	3
12	Torreense	1	+1	3
13	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	+1	3
14	Red Bull Salzburg	1	+1	3
15	Sunderland	1	+1	3
16	Omonia Nicosia	1	+1	3
17	Sturm Graz	1	0	1
18	Rennes	1	0	1
19	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0	1
20	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0	1
21	Jagiellonia	1	−1	0
22	Real Sociedad	1	−1	0
23	Anderlecht	1	−1	0
24	Lillestrom	1	−1	0
25	Celta Vigo	1	−1	0
26	AZ Alkmaar	1	−1	0
27	Levski Sofia	1	−1	0
28	Celtic	1	−2	0
29	1899 Hoffenheim	1	−2	0
30	AC Milan	1	−2	0
31	Celje	1	−2	0
32	Marseille	1	−3	0
33	Ararat-Armenia	1	−3	0
34	Plzen	1	−3	0
35	Lech Poznan	1	−4	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	−5	0