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Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen

Dinamo Zagreb

2–4Full time

NEC Nijmegen

UEFA Europa League · THU 22 OCT · Stadion Maksimir

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 20:28

Dinamo Zagreb 2–4 NEC Nijmegen DINAMO ZAGREB WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinamo Zagreb win~~51%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.850

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.175

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 39 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Zagreb win at 51%.
0′KICK-OFF Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen
3′Much as we predicted: Dinamo Zagreb was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–22–27
24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Dion Drena Beljo · Dinamo Zagreb
25′We said Dinamo Zagreb at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–24–53
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Dinamo Zagreb 0–1 NEC Nijmegen
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Dinamo Zagreb win: 51% at kick-off, 23% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' NEC Nijmegen win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Dinamo Zagreb win 47%)
27′NEC Nijmegen ahead on 25′ through Clement Bischoff. 0–1. 0–1 · 23–24–53
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 0–1 · 22–24–54
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Dinamo Zagreb win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Dinamo Zagreb 1–1 NEC Nijmegen
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Dinamo Zagreb win: 51% at kick-off, 46% now
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Dinamo Zagreb win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was NEC Nijmegen win 54%)
34′Dion Drena Beljo scores for Dinamo Zagreb on 33′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 45–29–26
35′We published Dinamo Zagreb at 51%. Our model now makes it 74%. 2–1 · 74–17–9
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Dinamo Zagreb 2–1 NEC Nijmegen
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Dinamo Zagreb win: 51% at kick-off, 74% now
37′GOAL DISALLOWED · 37' Dinamo Zagreb
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Dinamo Zagreb win: 51% at kick-off, 44% now
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Dinamo Zagreb 2–1 NEC Nijmegen · Luka Ivanušec
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Dinamo Zagreb win: 51% at kick-off, 74% now
38′37′: Dion Drena Beljo on the scoresheet for Dinamo Zagreb, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 74–17–8
41′We published Dinamo Zagreb at 51%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–18–8
44′4 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 42–33–25
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Noe Lebreton · NEC Nijmegen
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Dinamo Zagreb 2–2 NEC Nijmegen
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Dinamo Zagreb win: 51% at kick-off, 42% now
45′NEC Nijmegen level it on 45′ through Bryan Linssen. 2–2. 2–2 · 42–33–25
45′SECOND HALF Dinamo Zagreb 2–2 NEC Nijmegen
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Dinamo Zagreb win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
47′HALF-TIME Dinamo Zagreb 2–2 NEC Nijmegen
52′We said Dinamo Zagreb at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 2–2 · 39–37–24
53′We said Dinamo Zagreb at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 2–3 · 13–25–61
53′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 13–25–61
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Dinamo Zagreb 2–3 NEC Nijmegen
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Dinamo Zagreb win: 51% at kick-off, 13% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' NEC Nijmegen win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Dinamo Zagreb win 39%)
55′Bryan Linssen scores for NEC Nijmegen on 54′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 12–25–62
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Dinamo Zagreb win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Dani Rodríguez · Off: Iker Almena Horcajo
62′We said Dinamo Zagreb at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–3 · 9–25–66
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Mislav Oršić · Off: Arber Hoxha
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Moris Valincic · Off: Niko Galesic
74′We said Dinamo Zagreb at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–3 · 4–20–75
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' NEC Nijmegen · On: Jamiro Monteiro · Off: Dennis Geiger
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Bruno Goda · Off: Matteo Perez Vinlöf
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Lukas Kacavenda · Off: Luka Ivanušec
79′6 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–2–98
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Dinamo Zagreb 2–4 NEC Nijmegen
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Dinamo Zagreb win: 51% at kick-off, under 1% now
80′80′: Tjaronn Chery on the scoresheet for NEC Nijmegen, making it 2–4. 2–4 · 0–2–98
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' NEC Nijmegen · On: Kevin Kers · Off: Deveron Fonville
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' NEC Nijmegen · On: Gabriel·Bras · Off: Perr Schuurs
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' NEC Nijmegen · On: Willum Thor Willumsson · Off: Tjaronn Chery
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' NEC Nijmegen · On: Kaj Sierhuis · Off: Bryan Linssen
93′Full time, 2–4. We called Dinamo Zagreb at 51% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–4 · 0–0–100
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Clement Bischoff · NEC Nijmegen
FTFULL TIME Dinamo Zagreb 2–4 NEC Nijmegen
FTDinamo Zagreb 2–4 NEC Nijmegen · Dinamo Zagreb win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dinamo Zagreb are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Zagreb 51%, draw 22%, NEC Nijmegen 27%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Zagreb v NEC NijmegenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Zagreb win51%

Draw22%

NEC Nijmegen win27%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueStadion Maksimir

RefereeManfredas Lukjancukas

Line-ups

Dinamo Zagreb

4-1-4-1

NEC Nijmegen

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Zagreb

NEC Nijmegen

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · HNL

Last match: 18 Oct · Eredivisie

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Dinamo Zagreb	2	+1	4
27	NEC Nijmegen	2	−5	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dinamo Zagreb

4-1-4-1

24 D. Kotarski

15 N. Galešić

36 Sergi Domínguez

26 S. McKenna

22 Olof Matteo Perez Vinlöf

27 J. Mišić

23 Iker Almena

10 L. Stojković

17 L. Ivanušec

11 A. Hoxha

9 D. Beljo

Coach · Mario Kovacevic

Substitutes

6 · S. Radeljić

3 · B. Goda

7 · Dani Rodríguez

25 · M. Valinčić

80 · L. Kačavenda

14 · S. Prevljak

99 · M. Oršić

1 · D. Zagorac

21 · M. Lisica

8 · M. Zajc

5 · K. Kravtsov

44 · I. Filipović

NEC Nijmegen

3-4-2-1

1 G. Crettaz

4 P. Schuurs

22 A. Kaplan

24 Deveron Fonville

21 T. Storm

6 D. Nejašmić

18 D. Geiger

99 Clement Bischoff

9 T. Chery

20 N. Lebreton

30 B. Linssen

Coach · Dick Schreuder

Substitutes

11 · W. Willumsson

14 · K. Sierhuis

12 · N. Polster

34 · Kevin Kers

66 · Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar

38 · Joep Geneste

73 · Gabriel Brás

35 · Jamiro Monteiro

Our number · dinamo zagreb winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 21 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

51% The market65%

Us51%

~~Market~~65%

We make Dinamo Zagreb a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen~~2.04 – 1.43

~~Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 1~~14 v 27

~~The market · Dinamo Zagreb win~~65% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dinamo Zagreb win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo Zagreb win	51%	65%	−14
Draw	22%	20%	+2
NEC Nijmegen win	27%	15%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	67%	62%	+5
Both teams to score	66%	57%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	86%	81%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	46%	42%	+4
Dinamo Zagreb or draw	73%	85%	−12
Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet	24%	–	–
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.4 4.2 3.2 1 6.1 9.4 6.5 3.1 2 6.5 9.3 6.6 3.2 3 4.4 6.3 4.5 2.1 4 2.2 3.2 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Zagreb down, NEC Nijmegen across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Dinamo Zagreb play in HNL, NEC Nijmegen in Eredivisie.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Dinamo Zagreb are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

2.04 goals for Dinamo Zagreb, 1.43 for NEC Nijmegen. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 17:15. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 Sept

DINAMO ZAGREB

DW0–0 · 1–0

NEC NIJMEGEN

LD0–5 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	2	+6	6
2	Bayer Leverkusen	2	+6	6
3	Benfica	2	+5	6
4	Beşiktaş	2	+4	6
5	Bournemouth	2	+4	6
6	Omonia Nicosia	2	+4	6
7	Ferencvarosi TC	2	+3	6
8	Lyon	2	+2	6
9	Sunderland	2	+2	6
10	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	+2	6
11	Sparta Praha	2	+3	4
12	Union St. Gilloise	2	+3	4
13	Rennes	2	+1	4
14	Dinamo Zagreb	2	+1	4
15	Crystal Palace	2	+3	3
16	AC Milan	2	+2	3
17	Jagiellonia	2	+1	3
18	OFI	2	+1	3
19	Torreense	2	0	3
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	0	3
21	Red Bull Salzburg	2	−3	3
22	Real Sociedad	2	−1	1
23	Lillestrom	2	−1	1
24	Levski Sofia	2	−1	1
25	Hapoel Beer Sheva	2	−1	1
26	Sturm Graz	2	−3	1
27	NEC Nijmegen	2	−5	1
28	Celta Vigo	2	−2	0
29	Anderlecht	2	−2	0
30	1899 Hoffenheim	2	−3	0
31	Plzen	2	−4	0
32	Marseille	2	−4	0
33	Celtic	2	−5	0
34	Ararat-Armenia	2	−5	0
35	Celje	2	−5	0
36	Lech Poznan	2	−8	0