Dinamo Zagreb v Anderlecht prediction · UEFA Europa League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 22:30

Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 Anderlecht DINAMO ZAGREB WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinamo Zagreb win~~39%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.565

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.420

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Zagreb win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Dinamo Zagreb v Anderlecht
2′Much as we predicted: Dinamo Zagreb was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–25–36
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Niko Galesic · Dinamo Zagreb
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Tristan Degreef · Anderlecht
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Dinamo Zagreb win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Zagreb 0–0 Anderlecht
45′SECOND HALF Dinamo Zagreb 0–0 Anderlecht
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Dinamo Zagreb win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Josip Mišić · Dinamo Zagreb
56′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 29–44–27
60′We said Dinamo Zagreb at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–48–25
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Dani Rodríguez · Off: Iker Almena Horcajo
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Moris Valincic · Off: Niko Galesic
66′We said Dinamo Zagreb at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–23
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Anderlecht · On: Tawfik Bentayeb · Off: Lukas Ambros
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Dinamo Zagreb · On: Lukas Kacavenda · Off: Luka Stojkovic
73′We said Dinamo Zagreb at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–18
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Dinamo Zagreb win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Marten Winkler · Anderlecht
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Anderlecht · On: Adriano Bertaccini · Off: Tristan Degreef
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Anderlecht · On: Danylo Sikan · Off: Mihajlo Cvetkovic
79′We said Dinamo Zagreb at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–72–13
84′We said Dinamo Zagreb at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Dinamo Zagreb win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Anderlecht · On: Romeo Amane · Off: Mario Stroeykens
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Anderlecht · On: Oliver Antman · Off: Marten Winkler
91′We said Dinamo Zagreb at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
95′We published Dinamo Zagreb at 39%. Our model now makes it 98%. 1–0 · 98–2–0
95′PENALTY · 90+4' Dinamo Zagreb
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 Anderlecht
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+5' Dinamo Zagreb win: 39% at kick-off, 98% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Dinamo Zagreb win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
96′Dion Drena Beljo scores for Dinamo Zagreb on 90′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 98–2–0
97′Full time, 1–0. We called Dinamo Zagreb at 39% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 Anderlecht
FTDinamo Zagreb 1–0 Anderlecht · Dinamo Zagreb win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Dinamo Zagreb just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Zagreb 39%, draw 26%, Anderlecht 36%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Zagreb v AnderlechtBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Zagreb win39%

Draw26%

Anderlecht win36%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueStadion Maksimir

RefereeOrel Grinfeld

Line-ups

Dinamo Zagreb

4-1-4-1

Anderlecht

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Zagreb

Anderlecht

5Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · HNL

Last match: 10 Oct · Jupiler Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
19	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0	1
23	Anderlecht	1	−1	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dinamo Zagreb

4-1-4-1

24 D. Kotarski

15 N. Galešić

36 Sergi Domínguez

6 S. Radeljić

22 Olof Matteo Perez Vinlöf

27 J. Mišić

23 Iker Almena

10 L. Stojković

17 L. Ivanušec

11 A. Hoxha

9 D. Beljo

Coach · Mario Kovacevic

Substitutes

3 · B. Goda

44 · I. Filipović

80 · L. Kačavenda

5 · K. Kravtsov

21 · M. Lisica

26 · S. McKenna

99 · M. Oršić

14 · S. Prevljak

7 · Dani Rodríguez

25 · M. Valinčić

1 · D. Zagorac

8 · M. Zajc

Anderlecht

4-2-3-1

26 C. Coosemans

50 K. Barry

12 A. Omobamidele

27 L. Pétrot

5 O. Reabciuk

29 M. Stroeykens

19 T. Aasgaard

10 M. Winkler

18 L. Ambros

83 T. Degreef

9 M. Cvetković

Coach · Vítor Bruno

Substitutes

11 · O. Antman

14 · D. Sikan

79 · A. Maamar

24 · E. Llansana

2 · Zoumana Keita

55 · M. Kana

32 · J. Heekeren

91 · A. Bertaccini

21 · T. Bentayeb

6 · L. Augustinsson

8 · R. Amané

53 · N. Cobiella

Our number · dinamo zagreb winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

39% The market47%

Us39%

~~Market~~47%

We make Dinamo Zagreb a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dinamo Zagreb v Anderlecht~~1.48 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in UEFA Europa League this season · since 30 July~~W0 D1 L0 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 0~~19 v 23

~~The market · Dinamo Zagreb win~~47% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dinamo Zagreb win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 49% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo Zagreb win	39%	47%	−8
Draw	26%	26%	0
Anderlecht win	36%	27%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	55%	55%	0
Both teams to score	59%	58%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	34%	−1
Dinamo Zagreb or draw	64%	73%	−9
Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet	25%	–	–
Anderlecht clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.0 7.5 5.5 2.6 1 7.9 12.0 8.2 3.8 2 6.1 8.6 6.0 2.8 3 3.0 4.2 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Zagreb down, Anderlecht across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Dinamo Zagreb play in HNL, Anderlecht in Jupiler Pro League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Dinamo Zagreb are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Dinamo Zagreb, 1.41 for Anderlecht. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in UEFA Europa League this season · since 30 July

DINAMO ZAGREB

D0–0

ANDERLECHT

WWWWWL3–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	1	+5	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	+4	3
3	Sparta Praha	1	+3	3
4	Beşiktaş	1	+3	3
5	Union St. Gilloise	1	+3	3
6	Ferencvarosi TC	1	+2	3
7	Benfica	1	+2	3
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	+2	3
9	OFI	1	+2	3
10	Bournemouth	1	+1	3
11	Lyon	1	+1	3
12	Torreense	1	+1	3
13	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	+1	3
14	Red Bull Salzburg	1	+1	3
15	Sunderland	1	+1	3
16	Omonia Nicosia	1	+1	3
17	Sturm Graz	1	0	1
18	Rennes	1	0	1
19	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0	1
20	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0	1
21	Jagiellonia	1	−1	0
22	Real Sociedad	1	−1	0
23	Anderlecht	1	−1	0
24	Lillestrom	1	−1	0
25	Celta Vigo	1	−1	0
26	AZ Alkmaar	1	−1	0
27	Levski Sofia	1	−1	0
28	Celtic	1	−2	0
29	1899 Hoffenheim	1	−2	0
30	AC Milan	1	−2	0
31	Celje	1	−2	0
32	Marseille	1	−3	0
33	Ararat-Armenia	1	−3	0
34	Plzen	1	−3	0
35	Lech Poznan	1	−4	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	−5	0