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Model 1.2

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Celtic v Celta Vigo

Celtic
1–2Full time
Celta Vigo

UEFA Europa League · THU 22 OCT · Celtic Park

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 23:00
Celtic 1–2 Celta Vigo CELTA VIGO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Celta Vigo win48%
The market said37%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.406
The market’s Brier score0.590

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Celta Vigo win at 48%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Celta Vigo 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 28–25–48
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Celtic v Celta Vigo
  4. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Camilo Duran · Celtic
  5. 40′8 shots for Celta Vigo, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 25–34–40
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Celtic 0–0 Celta Vigo
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Celtic 0–0 Celta Vigo
  8. 46′We said Celta Vigo at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 62–25–13
  9. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Celta Vigo win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
  10. 46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Celtic 1–0 Celta Vigo
  11. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Celta Vigo win: 48% at kick-off, 13% now
  12. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Celtic win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Celta Vigo win 38%)
  13. 48′Celtic ahead on 47′ through Mika Baur. 1–0. 1–0 · 63–25–12
  14. 52′12 shots for Celta Vigo, 3 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 64–25–11
  15. 57′We said Celta Vigo at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–24–9
  16. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Celta Vigo win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
  17. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Celtic · On: James Forrest · Off: Callum Osmand
  18. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Celta Vigo · On: Ilaix Moriba · Off: Hugo Burcio
  19. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Celta Vigo · On: Williot Swedberg · Off: Iago Aspas
  20. 67′We said Celta Vigo at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 19–54–28
  21. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Celtic 1–1 Celta Vigo
  22. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Celta Vigo win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
  23. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Celtic win 72%)
  24. 68′Javier Rodríguez Galiano scores for Celta Vigo on 68′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 18–55–27
  25. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' M. O'Neill · Celtic
  26. 69′16 shots for Celta Vigo, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 18–56–26
  27. 71′We said Celta Vigo at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 17–59–24
  28. 71′We said Celta Vigo at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–2 · 2–15–83
  29. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Celtic 1–2 Celta Vigo
  30. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Celta Vigo win: 48% at kick-off, 83% now
  31. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Celta Vigo win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 59%)
  32. 72′71′: Javier Rodríguez Galiano on the scoresheet for Celta Vigo, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–84
  33. 72′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–14–84
  34. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Celtic · On: Kasper Hogh · Off: Haissem Hassan
  35. 74′We said Celta Vigo at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
  36. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Celta Vigo · On: Pablo Durán Fernández · Off: Ferran Jutglà
  37. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Celta Vigo win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
  38. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Celtic · On: Oliver Sorensen · Off: Mika Baur
  39. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Celtic · On: Sebastian Tounekti · Off: Camilo Duran
  40. 81′We said Celta Vigo at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
  41. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Liam Scales · Celtic
  42. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Celta Vigo · On: Javi Galán · Off: Hugo Alvarez Antunez
  43. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Celta Vigo · On: Andrés Antañón Vieites · Off: Javier Rueda García
  44. 88′We said Celta Vigo at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  45. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Oliver Sorensen · Celtic
  46. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Colby Donovan · Celtic
  47. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Celta Vigo win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
  48. FTFULL TIME Celtic 1–2 Celta Vigo
  49. FTCeltic 1–2 Celta Vigo · Celta Vigo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Celta Vigo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Celtic 28%, draw 24%, Celta Vigo 48%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Celtic v Celta VigoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Celtic win28%
Draw24%
Celta Vigo win48%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueCeltic Park

RefereeGeorgi Nikolov Kabakov

Line-ups

Celtic

4-2-3-1

Celta Vigo

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Celtic

Celta Vigo

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

Last match: 18 Oct · La Liga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
28Celta Vigo2−20
33Celtic2−50

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Celtic

4-2-3-1

26 S. Johnstone

51 Colby Donovan

47 D. Murray

5 L. Scales

63 K. Tierney

42 C. McGregor

22 M. Baur

23 H. Hassan

8 B. Nygren

19 C. Osmand

11 C. Durán

Coach · M. O'Neill

Substitutes

61 · J. Haney

49 · J. Forrest

9 · K. Høgh

62 · Liam Kennedy

3 · J. Lotomba

33 · S. McArdle

14 · L. McCowan

21 · A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

56 · A. Ralston

1 · V. Sinisalo

18 · O. Sørensen

17 · S. Tounekti

Celta Vigo

3-4-3

13 I. Radu

20 Javi Rodríguez

21 S. Cáceres

3 Marcos Alonso

17 Javi Rueda

14 Aleix Febas

30 H. Burcio

5 Sergio Carreira

10 Iago Aspas

9 Ferran Jutglà

23 Hugo Álvarez

Coach · Claudio Giráldez

Substitutes

35 · G. Miller

6 · I. Moriba

19 · W. Swedberg

18 · Yoel Lago

22 · Javi Galán

4 · A. Faye

11 · Pablo Durán

24 · C. Driouech

1 · A. Bayındır

28 · Andrés Antañón

16 · Hugo González

31 · Ángel Arcos

Our number · celta vigo winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 19 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off
48% The market37%
Us48%
Market37%

We make Celta Vigo a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Celtic v Celta Vigo1.26 – 1.72
Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 SeptW0 D0 L2 · W0 D0 L2
Table places · points 0 v 033 v 28
The market · Celta Vigo win37% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 16 OCT 00:0022 OCT 19:36
Our probability · Celta Vigo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Celtic win28%35%−7
Draw24%27%−3
Celta Vigo win48%37%+11
Over 2.5 goals57%55%+2
Both teams to score59%59%0
Over 1.5 goals80%78%+2
Over 3.5 goals35%35%0
Celtic or draw52%63%−11
Celtic clean sheet18%––
Celta Vigo clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%
0123450 5.4 8.4 7.5 4.3 1 6.0 11.4 9.5 5.4 2.3 2 4.0 6.9 6.0 3.4 3 2.9 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Celtic down, Celta Vigo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 Sept

CELTIC

LL1–3 · 1–4

CELTA VIGO

LL0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Juventus2+66
2Bayer Leverkusen2+66
3Benfica2+56
4Beşiktaş2+46
5Bournemouth2+46
6Omonia Nicosia2+46
7Ferencvarosi TC2+36
8Lyon2+26
9Sunderland2+26
10Olympiakos Piraeus2+26
11Sparta Praha2+34
12Union St. Gilloise2+34
13Rennes2+14
14Dinamo Zagreb2+14
15Crystal Palace2+33
16AC Milan2+23
17Jagiellonia2+13
18OFI2+13
19Torreense203
20AZ Alkmaar203
21Red Bull Salzburg2−33
22Real Sociedad2−11
23Lillestrom2−11
24Levski Sofia2−11
25Hapoel Beer Sheva2−11
26Sturm Graz2−31
27NEC Nijmegen2−51
28Celta Vigo2−20
29Anderlecht2−20
301899 Hoffenheim2−30
31Plzen2−40
32Marseille2−40
33Celtic2−50
34Ararat-Armenia2−50
35Celje2−50
36Lech Poznan2−80

The competition's standings before kick-off.