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Celtic v Celta Vigo
Celtic
Celta VigoUEFA Europa League · THU 22 OCT · Celtic Park
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Celta Vigo win at 48%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Celta Vigo 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 28–25–48
- 1′KICK-OFF Celtic v Celta Vigo
- 24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Camilo Duran · Celtic
- 40′8 shots for Celta Vigo, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 25–34–40
- 45′HALF-TIME Celtic 0–0 Celta Vigo
- 45′SECOND HALF Celtic 0–0 Celta Vigo
- 46′We said Celta Vigo at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 62–25–13
- 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Celta Vigo win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
- 46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Celtic 1–0 Celta Vigo
- 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Celta Vigo win: 48% at kick-off, 13% now
- 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Celtic win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Celta Vigo win 38%)
- 48′Celtic ahead on 47′ through Mika Baur. 1–0. 1–0 · 63–25–12
- 52′12 shots for Celta Vigo, 3 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 64–25–11
- 57′We said Celta Vigo at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–24–9
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Celta Vigo win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
- 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Celtic · On: James Forrest · Off: Callum Osmand
- 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Celta Vigo · On: Ilaix Moriba · Off: Hugo Burcio
- 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Celta Vigo · On: Williot Swedberg · Off: Iago Aspas
- 67′We said Celta Vigo at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 19–54–28
- 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Celtic 1–1 Celta Vigo
- 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Celta Vigo win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
- 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Celtic win 72%)
- 68′Javier Rodríguez Galiano scores for Celta Vigo on 68′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 18–55–27
- 68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' M. O'Neill · Celtic
- 69′16 shots for Celta Vigo, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 18–56–26
- 71′We said Celta Vigo at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 17–59–24
- 71′We said Celta Vigo at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–2 · 2–15–83
- 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Celtic 1–2 Celta Vigo
- 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Celta Vigo win: 48% at kick-off, 83% now
- 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Celta Vigo win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 59%)
- 72′71′: Javier Rodríguez Galiano on the scoresheet for Celta Vigo, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–84
- 72′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–14–84
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Celtic · On: Kasper Hogh · Off: Haissem Hassan
- 74′We said Celta Vigo at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Celta Vigo · On: Pablo Durán Fernández · Off: Ferran Jutglà
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Celta Vigo win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Celtic · On: Oliver Sorensen · Off: Mika Baur
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Celtic · On: Sebastian Tounekti · Off: Camilo Duran
- 81′We said Celta Vigo at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
- 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Liam Scales · Celtic
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Celta Vigo · On: Javi Galán · Off: Hugo Alvarez Antunez
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Celta Vigo · On: Andrés Antañón Vieites · Off: Javier Rueda García
- 88′We said Celta Vigo at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
- 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Oliver Sorensen · Celtic
- 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Colby Donovan · Celtic
- 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Celta Vigo win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
- FTFULL TIME Celtic 1–2 Celta Vigo
- FTCeltic 1–2 Celta Vigo · Celta Vigo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Celta Vigo are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Celtic 28%, draw 24%, Celta Vigo 48%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off
Celtic win28%
Celta Vigo win48%Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 20:00
RoundLeague stage · matchday 3
VenueCeltic Park
RefereeGeorgi Nikolov Kabakov
Match timeline
All events
CelticMIN
Celta VigoEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Celtic
4-2-3-1
Celta Vigo
3-4-3
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Celtic
Celta Vigo
Last match: 18 Oct · the Scottish Premiership
Last match: 18 Oct · La Liga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Podcast: Is Celta a must-win for Celtic? And what do fans want from new TV deal?BBC Sport · · Celtic
Blackburn Rovers facing new Celtic transfer threatFootball League World · · Blackburn, Celtic
Line-ups
Celtic
4-2-3-1
26 S. Johnstone
51 Colby Donovan
47 D. Murray
5 L. Scales
63 K. Tierney
42 C. McGregor
22 M. Baur
23 H. Hassan
8 B. Nygren
19 C. Osmand
11 C. Durán
Coach · M. O'Neill
Substitutes
61 · J. Haney
49 · J. Forrest
9 · K. Høgh
62 · Liam Kennedy
3 · J. Lotomba
33 · S. McArdle
14 · L. McCowan
21 · A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
56 · A. Ralston
1 · V. Sinisalo
18 · O. Sørensen
17 · S. Tounekti
Celta Vigo
3-4-3
13 I. Radu
20 Javi Rodríguez
21 S. Cáceres
3 Marcos Alonso
17 Javi Rueda
14 Aleix Febas
30 H. Burcio
5 Sergio Carreira
10 Iago Aspas
9 Ferran Jutglà
23 Hugo Álvarez
Coach · Claudio Giráldez
Substitutes
35 · G. Miller
6 · I. Moriba
19 · W. Swedberg
18 · Yoel Lago
22 · Javi Galán
4 · A. Faye
11 · Pablo Durán
24 · C. Driouech
1 · A. Bayındır
28 · Andrés Antañón
16 · Hugo González
31 · Ángel Arcos
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Celtic
4-2-3-1
26 S. Johnstone
51 Colby Donovan
47 D. Murray
5 L. Scales
63 K. Tierney
42 C. McGregor
22 M. Baur
23 H. Hassan
8 B. Nygren
19 C. Osmand
11 C. Durán
Coach · M. O'Neill
Substitutes
61 · J. Haney
49 · J. Forrest
9 · K. Høgh
62 · Liam Kennedy
3 · J. Lotomba
33 · S. McArdle
14 · L. McCowan
21 · A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
56 · A. Ralston
1 · V. Sinisalo
18 · O. Sørensen
17 · S. Tounekti
Celta Vigo
3-4-3
13 I. Radu
20 Javi Rodríguez
21 S. Cáceres
3 Marcos Alonso
17 Javi Rueda
14 Aleix Febas
30 H. Burcio
5 Sergio Carreira
10 Iago Aspas
9 Ferran Jutglà
23 Hugo Álvarez
Coach · Claudio Giráldez
Substitutes
35 · G. Miller
6 · I. Moriba
19 · W. Swedberg
18 · Yoel Lago
22 · Javi Galán
4 · A. Faye
11 · Pablo Durán
24 · C. Driouech
1 · A. Bayındır
28 · Andrés Antañón
16 · Hugo González
31 · Ángel Arcos
We make Celta Vigo a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 28% | 35% | −7 |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | −3 |
| Celta Vigo win | 48% | 37% | +11 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 35% | 0 |
| Celtic or draw | 52% | 63% | −11 |
| Celtic clean sheet | 18% | – | – |
| Celta Vigo clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 Sept
CELTIC
CELTA VIGO
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 2 | +6 | 6 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | +6 | 6 |
| 3 | Benfica | 2 | +5 | 6 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 5 | Bournemouth | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 6 | Omonia Nicosia | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 7 | Ferencvarosi TC | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 8 | Lyon | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 10 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 11 | Sparta Praha | 2 | +3 | 4 |
| 12 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | +3 | 4 |
| 13 | Rennes | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 14 | Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 2 | +3 | 3 |
| 16 | AC Milan | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 17 | Jagiellonia | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 18 | OFI | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 19 | Torreense | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 2 | −3 | 3 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 23 | Lillestrom | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 24 | Levski Sofia | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 25 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 26 | Sturm Graz | 2 | −3 | 1 |
| 27 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | −5 | 1 |
| 28 | Celta Vigo | 2 | −2 | 0 |
| 29 | Anderlecht | 2 | −2 | 0 |
| 30 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | −3 | 0 |
| 31 | Plzen | 2 | −4 | 0 |
| 32 | Marseille | 2 | −4 | 0 |
| 33 | Celtic | 2 | −5 | 0 |
| 34 | Ararat-Armenia | 2 | −5 | 0 |
| 35 | Celje | 2 | −5 | 0 |
| 36 | Lech Poznan | 2 | −8 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Juventus
Bayer Leverkusen
Benfica
Beşiktaş
Bournemouth
Omonia Nicosia
Ferencvarosi TC
Lyon
Sunderland
Olympiakos Piraeus
Sparta Praha
Union St. Gilloise
Rennes
Dinamo Zagreb
Crystal Palace
AC Milan
Jagiellonia
OFI
Torreense
AZ Alkmaar
Red Bull Salzburg
Real Sociedad
Lillestrom
Levski Sofia
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Sturm Graz
NEC Nijmegen
Anderlecht
1899 Hoffenheim
Plzen
Marseille
Ararat-Armenia
Celje
Lech Poznan