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Celta Vigo v Juventus

Celta Vigo
1–2Full time
Juventus

UEFA Europa League · THU 15 OCT · Municipal de Balaídos

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 22:30
Celta Vigo 1–2 Juventus JUVENTUS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Juventus win38%
The market said43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.579
The market’s Brier score0.480

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Juventus win at 38%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Juventus 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 35–27–38
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Celta Vigo v Juventus
  4. 17′We said Juventus at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
  5. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Celta Vigo 1–0 Juventus
  6. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Juventus win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
  7. 17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Celta Vigo win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Juventus win 14%)
  8. 18′Celta Vigo find the net on 18′. 1–0. 1–0 · 64–22–14
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 66–23–12
  10. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Williot Swedberg · Celta Vigo
  11. 41′We said Juventus at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
  12. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Juventus win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
  13. 45′SECOND HALF Celta Vigo 1–0 Juventus
  14. 46′HALF-TIME Celta Vigo 1–0 Juventus
  15. 49′10 shots for Juventus, 4 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 70–22–8
  16. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Lloyd Kelly · Juventus
  17. 55′14 shots for Juventus, 4 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 73–21–6
  18. 58′We said Juventus at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 24–50–26
  19. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Celta Vigo 1–1 Juventus
  20. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Juventus win: 38% at kick-off, 26% now
  21. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Celta Vigo win 24%)
  22. 59′Nick Woltemade scores for Juventus on 58′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 24–50–26
  23. 62′We said Juventus at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 23–53–24
  24. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Celta Vigo · On: Couhaib Driouech · Off: Williot Swedberg
  25. 63′16 shots for Juventus, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 22–54–24
  26. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Juventus · On: Nicolás Iván Gonzalez · Off: Francisco Conceicao
  27. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Juventus · On: Randal Kolo Muani · Off: Kerim Alajbegovic
  28. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Juventus · On: Jhon Lucumi · Off: Lloyd Kelly
  29. 71′We said Juventus at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 18–63–19
  30. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Juventus · On: Gleison Bremer · Off: Federico Gatti
  31. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Juventus win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
  32. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Jhon Lucumi · Juventus
  33. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Celta Vigo · On: Hugo Burcio · Off: Aleix Febas
  34. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Celta Vigo · On: Iago Aspas · Off: Ferran Jutglà
  35. 82′20 shots for Juventus, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 9–81–10
  36. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Juventus · On: Douglas Luiz Soares · Off: Teun Koopmeiners
  37. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Juventus win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
  38. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Ilaix Moriba · Celta Vigo
  39. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Celta Vigo · On: Álvaro Núñez · Off: Javier Rueda García
  40. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Celta Vigo · On: Hugo González · Off: Hugo Alvarez Antunez
  41. 90′We said Juventus at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
  42. 92′We said Juventus at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 1–2 · 0–3–97
  43. 92′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–3–97
  44. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Celta Vigo 1–2 Juventus
  45. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Juventus win: 38% at kick-off, 97% now
  46. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Juventus win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
  47. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Juventus win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
  48. 94′90′: Randal Kolo Muani on the scoresheet for Juventus, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–1–99
  49. 94′1–2 at the end. Our 38% on Juventus comes in. 1–2 · 0–0–100
  50. FTFULL TIME Celta Vigo 1–2 Juventus
  51. FTCelta Vigo 1–2 Juventus · Juventus win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Juventus just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Celta Vigo 34%, draw 28%, Juventus 38%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Celta Vigo v JuventusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Celta Vigo win34%
Draw28%
Juventus win38%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueMunicipal de Balaídos

RefereeSander van der Eijk

Line-ups

Celta Vigo

3-4-3

Juventus

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Celta Vigo

Juventus

4Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · La Liga

Last match: 11 Oct · the Italian Serie A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Juventus1+53
25Celta Vigo1−10

In the news

from the pressAll ›
Europa League line-ups: Celta Vigo vs. JuventusFootball Italia · · Celta Vigo, Juventus Europa League Liveblog: RB Salzburg-Milan, Celta Vigo-Juventus, Atalanta-PafosFootball Italia · · AC Milan, Celta Vigo, Juventus, Atalanta, Pafos UEL | Celta Vigo vs Juventus: Probable line-ups and where to watch on TVFootball Italia · · Celta Vigo, Juventus Spalletti wants Juventus to be ‘solid and unpredictable’ against Celta VigoFootball Italia · · Juventus, Celta Vigo

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Celta Vigo

3-4-3

13 I. Radu

20 Javi Rodríguez

18 Yoel Lago

3 Marcos Alonso

17 Javi Rueda

6 I. Moriba

14 Aleix Febas

5 Sergio Carreira

23 Hugo Álvarez

9 Ferran Jutglà

19 W. Swedberg

Coach · Claudio Giráldez

Substitutes

28 · Andrés Antañón

15 · Álvaro Núñez

35 · G. Miller

31 · Ángel Arcos

10 · Iago Aspas

1 · A. Bayındır

30 · H. Burcio

21 · S. Cáceres

24 · C. Driouech

4 · A. Faye

22 · Javi Galán

16 · Hugo González

Juventus

3-4-2-1

25 G. Vicario

15 P. Kalulu

4 F. Gatti

6 L. Kelly

22 W. McKennie

29 P. Sarr

8 T. Koopmeiners

20 A. Cambiaso

7 Francisco Conceição

17 Kerim-Sam Alajbegović

27 N. Woltemade

Coach · L. Spalletti

Substitutes

33 · Neto

26 · J. Lucumí

9 · R. Kolo Muani

31 · N. González

12 · Douglas Luiz

2 · Z. Çelik

32 · J. Cabal

3 · Bremer

23 · C. Pinsoglio

Our number · juventus winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 00:27 · locked at kick-off
38% The market43%
Us38%
Market43%

We make Juventus a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Celta Vigo v Juventus1.21 – 1.29
Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 SeptW0 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L0
Table places · points 0 v 325 v 1
The market · Juventus win43% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 9 OCT 07:2515 OCT 19:53
Our probability · Juventus win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. The market has gone from 45% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Celta Vigo win34%27%+7
Draw28%30%−2
Juventus win38%43%−5
Over 2.5 goals46%42%+4
Both teams to score51%49%+2
Over 1.5 goals72%68%+4
Over 3.5 goals24%24%0
Celta Vigo or draw62%57%+5
Celta Vigo clean sheet28%––
Juventus clean sheet30%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%
0123450 8.6 10.2 6.8 2.9 1 9.5 13.2 8.3 3.6 2 6.0 7.8 5.0 2.1 3 2.4 3.1 2.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Celta Vigo down, Juventus across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 Sept

CELTA VIGO

L0–1

JUVENTUS

W5–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Juventus1+53
2Crystal Palace1+43
3Sparta Praha1+33
4Beşiktaş1+33
5Union St. Gilloise1+33
6Ferencvarosi TC1+23
7Benfica1+23
8Bayer Leverkusen1+23
9OFI1+23
10Bournemouth1+13
11Lyon1+13
12Torreense1+13
13Olympiakos Piraeus1+13
14Red Bull Salzburg1+13
15Sunderland1+13
16Omonia Nicosia1+13
17Sturm Graz101
18Rennes101
19Dinamo Zagreb101
20Hapoel Beer Sheva101
21Jagiellonia1−10
22Real Sociedad1−10
23Anderlecht1−10
24Lillestrom1−10
25Celta Vigo1−10
26AZ Alkmaar1−10
27Levski Sofia1−10
28Celtic1−20
291899 Hoffenheim1−20
30AC Milan1−20
31Celje1−20
32Marseille1−30
33Ararat-Armenia1−30
34Plzen1−30
35Lech Poznan1−40
36NEC Nijmegen1−50

The competition's standings before kick-off.