Celje v Omonia Nicosia prediction · UEFA Europa League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 20:30

Celje 0–3 Omonia Nicosia OMONIA NICOSIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Omonia Nicosia win~~49%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.388

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.589

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Omonia Nicosia win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Omonia Nicosia 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 26–24–49
1′KICK-OFF Celje v Omonia Nicosia
8′We said Omonia Nicosia at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 0–1 · 10–16–74
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Celje 0–1 Omonia Nicosia
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Omonia Nicosia win: 49% at kick-off, 74% now
9′9′: Loïs Diony on the scoresheet for Omonia Nicosia, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–16–74
11′GOAL DISALLOWED · 11' Omonia Nicosia
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Omonia Nicosia win: 49% at kick-off, 48% now
14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Artemijus Tutyskinas · Celje
17′Jaden Sean Montnor scores for Omonia Nicosia on 16′. 0–0 · 26–28–47
19′⚽ GOAL · 16' Celje 0–1 Omonia Nicosia · Jaden Sean Montnor (assist Ewandro)
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Omonia Nicosia win: 49% at kick-off, 74% now
25′We said Omonia Nicosia at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 8–17–75
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 8–17–75
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Łukasz Bejger · Celje
45′HALF-TIME Celje 0–1 Omonia Nicosia
45′SECOND HALF Celje 0–1 Omonia Nicosia
46′45′: Blaž Kramer on the scoresheet for Celje. 0–1 · 6–18–77
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Celje · On: Mario Kvesić · Off: Luka Vesner Ticic
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Mario Kvesić · Celje
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Omonia Nicosia win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
59′We said Omonia Nicosia at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 0–2 · 0–3–96
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Celje 0–2 Omonia Nicosia
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Omonia Nicosia win: 49% at kick-off, 96% now
60′Omonia Nicosia ahead on 59′ through Muamer Tanković. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–96
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Celje · On: Alpha Richard·Diounkou · Off: Łukasz Bejger
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Celje · On: Benjamin Verbič · Off: Yaya Dukuly
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Celje · On: A. Kučys · Off: Papa Daniel
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Omonia Nicosia · On: Andronikos Kakoullis · Off: Loïs Diony
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Omonia Nicosia · On: Florin Tănase · Off: Muamer Tanković
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Jaden Sean Montnor · Omonia Nicosia
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Celje · On: Leonardo Koutris · Off: Milot Avdyli
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Omonia Nicosia win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Omonia Nicosia · On: Mihlali Mayambela · Off: Jaden Sean Montnor
82′We said Omonia Nicosia at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Benjamin Verbič · Celje
84′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Senou Coulibaly · Omonia Nicosia
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Celje 0–3 Omonia Nicosia
85′Senou Coulibaly scores for Omonia Nicosia on 84′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
90′0–3 at the end. Our 49% on Omonia Nicosia comes in. 0–3 · 0–0–100
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Omonia Nicosia · On: Loïc Nego · Off: Ewandro
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Omonia Nicosia · On: Stefan Simić · Off: Senou Coulibaly
FTFULL TIME Celje 0–3 Omonia Nicosia
FTCelje 0–3 Omonia Nicosia · Omonia Nicosia win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Omonia Nicosia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Celje 26%, draw 25%, Omonia Nicosia 49%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Celje v Omonia NicosiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Celje win26%

Draw25%

Omonia Nicosia win49%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueStadion Z’dežele

RefereeElcin Masiyev

Line-ups

Celje

4-4-2

Omonia Nicosia

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Celje

Omonia Nicosia

5Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. SNL

Last match: 9 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Omonia Nicosia	1	+1	3
31	Celje	1	−2	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Celje

4-4-2

1 Žan-Luk Leban

44 Ł. Bejger

15 Ž. Žužek

6 A. Tutyškinas

11 M. Avdyli

91 Y. Dukuly

13 Papa Mustapha Daniel

19 M. Zabukovnik

14 L. Tičić

10 S. Sešlar

9 B. Kramer

Coach · Z. Željkovič

Substitutes

25 · V. Tusha

31 · D. Suhovrsnik

8 · M. Kvesić

7 · B. Verbič

20 · A. Dionkou

47 · A. Kučys

23 · Ž. Frelih

4 · D. Hrka

77 · M. Ivanšek

12 · L. Kolar

33 · L. Koútris

Omonia Nicosia

4-3-3

40 Fabiano

93 J. Duverne

5 S. Coulibaly

37 Ľ. Šatka

29 J. Balkovec

74 P. Andreou

22 M. Tankovic

14 M. Marić

11 Ewandro

99 L. Diony

7 J. Montnor

Coach · H. Berg

Substitutes

27 · S. Simič

85 · A. Neophytou

77 · L. Négo

78 · Pantelis Michail

21 · M. Mayambela

1 · T. Kaminski

9 · A. Kakoullis

92 · C. Panagiotis

20 · L. Brouwers

96 · Athos Kounounis

17 · F. Tănase

90 · C. Konstantinidis

Our number · omonia nicosia winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

49% The market37%

Us49%

~~Market~~37%

We make Omonia Nicosia a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Celje v Omonia Nicosia~~1.16 – 1.67

~~Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 6 Aug~~W0 D0 L1 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~31 v 16

~~The market · Omonia Nicosia win~~37% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Omonia Nicosia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 34% to 37% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Celje win	26%	34%	−8
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Omonia Nicosia win	49%	37%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	54%	52%	+2
Both teams to score	56%	57%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	75%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	31%	31%	0
Celje or draw	51%	63%	−12
Celje clean sheet	19%	–	–
Omonia Nicosia clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.3 9.5 8.3 4.6 1 6.4 11.8 9.6 5.3 2.2 2 3.9 6.6 5.5 3.1 3 2.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Celje down, Omonia Nicosia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Celje play in 1. SNL, Omonia Nicosia in 1. Division (Cyprus).

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Celje are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Celje, 1.67 for Omonia Nicosia. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 6 Aug

CELJE

L0–2

OMONIA NICOSIA

DWLWW1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	1	+5	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	+4	3
3	Sparta Praha	1	+3	3
4	Beşiktaş	1	+3	3
5	Union St. Gilloise	1	+3	3
6	Ferencvarosi TC	1	+2	3
7	Benfica	1	+2	3
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	+2	3
9	OFI	1	+2	3
10	Bournemouth	1	+1	3
11	Lyon	1	+1	3
12	Torreense	1	+1	3
13	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	+1	3
14	Red Bull Salzburg	1	+1	3
15	Sunderland	1	+1	3
16	Omonia Nicosia	1	+1	3
17	Sturm Graz	1	0	1
18	Rennes	1	0	1
19	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0	1
20	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0	1
21	Jagiellonia	1	−1	0
22	Real Sociedad	1	−1	0
23	Anderlecht	1	−1	0
24	Lillestrom	1	−1	0
25	Celta Vigo	1	−1	0
26	AZ Alkmaar	1	−1	0
27	Levski Sofia	1	−1	0
28	Celtic	1	−2	0
29	1899 Hoffenheim	1	−2	0
30	AC Milan	1	−2	0
31	Celje	1	−2	0
32	Marseille	1	−3	0
33	Ararat-Armenia	1	−3	0
34	Plzen	1	−3	0
35	Lech Poznan	1	−4	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	−5	0