Bournemouth v Sturm Graz prediction · UEFA Europa League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 22:30

Bournemouth 3–0 Sturm Graz BOURNEMOUTH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bournemouth win~~76%

~~The market said~~82%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.088

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.048

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bournemouth win at 76%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bournemouth was 76% before kick-off and our model makes it 76% now. 0–0 · 76–15–8
1′KICK-OFF Bournemouth v Sturm Graz
15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Francisco Evanilson · Bournemouth
29′We published Bournemouth at 76%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–8–2
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Bournemouth 1–0 Sturm Graz
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Bournemouth win: 76% at kick-off, 90% now
30′GOAL DISALLOWED · 30' Bournemouth
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Bournemouth win: 76% at kick-off, 67% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Bournemouth win: 76% at kick-off, 66% now
34′9 shots for Bournemouth, 0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 65–25–10
36′We said Bournemouth at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 64–26–10
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Belmin Beganovic · Sturm Graz
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Bournemouth 1–0 Sturm Graz
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Bournemouth win: 76% at kick-off, 90% now
45′43′: Francisco Evanilson on the scoresheet for Bournemouth, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 90–9–2
46′SECOND HALF Bournemouth 1–0 Sturm Graz
47′HALF-TIME Bournemouth 1–0 Sturm Graz
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Bafode Diakite · Bournemouth
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Sturm Graz · On: Oumar Diakité · Off: Belmin Beganovic
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Bournemouth · On: James Hill · Off: Adam Smith
70′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Julio Soler · Bournemouth
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Bournemouth · On: Ryan Christie · Off: Tyler Adams
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Bournemouth · On: Justin Kluivert · Off: Francisco Evanilson Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Bournemouth · On: Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha · Off: Marcus Tavernier Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Sturm Graz · On: Albert Vallci · Off: Petar Petrović
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Sturm Graz · On: Julian Halwachs · Off: Jacob Peter Hödl
76′We published Bournemouth at 76%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Sturm Graz · On: Axel Kayombo · Off: Simon Seidl
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Bournemouth 2–0 Sturm Graz
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Bournemouth win: 76% at kick-off, over 99% now
77′Bournemouth ahead on 76′ through Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Sturm Graz · On: Paul Koller · Off: Luis Balbo
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Bournemouth · On: Amine Adli · Off: Ben Gannon-Doak
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Julian Halwachs · Sturm Graz
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Albert Vallci · Sturm Graz
92′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Bournemouth 3–0 Sturm Graz
94′Álvaro Rodríguez scores for Bournemouth on 90′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Bournemouth 3–0 Sturm Graz
FTBournemouth 3–0 Sturm Graz · Bournemouth win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bournemouth are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bournemouth 76%, draw 16%, Sturm Graz 8%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Bournemouth v Sturm GrazBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Bournemouth win76%

Draw16%

Sturm Graz win8%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueVitality Stadium

RefereeJerome Brisard

Line-ups

Bournemouth

4-4-2

Sturm Graz

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bournemouth

Sturm Graz

5Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · the English Premier League

Last match: 10 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Bournemouth	1	+1	3
17	Sturm Graz	1	0	1

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Bournemouth v Sturm Graz, Benfica v Celtic, and more: Europa League – liveThe Guardian · 15 Oct 18:33 · Bournemouth, Sturm Graz, Benfica, Celtic

Bournemouth latest: Why Cherries are better than league position showsSky Sports · 15 Oct 12:00 · Bournemouth

Chelsea leading race for £100m-rated Alex Scott as Bournemouth face January decisionMirror Football · 14 Oct 17:30 · Chelsea, Bournemouth

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bournemouth

4-4-2

1 Đ. Petrović

15 A. Smith

18 B. Diakité

14 António Silva

6 J. Soler

11 B. Doak

4 L. Cook

12 T. Adams

16 M. Tavernier

9 Evanilson

30 Á. Rodríguez

Coach · M. Rose

Substitutes

27 · A. Tóth

10 · R. Christie

7 · D. Brooks

55 · M. Allan

21 · A. Adli

20 · M. Di Gregorio

5 · J. Hill

19 · J. Kluivert

37 · Rayan

3 · A. Truffert

Sturm Graz

5-3-2

53 D. Khudyakov

28 J. Heil

23 A. Malic

2 J. Quarshie

21 P. Petrović

27 L. Balbo

78 V. Matoshi

4 J. Gorenc Stankovič

43 Jacob Peter Hödl

19 S. Seidl

26 B. Beganović

Coach · F. Ingolitsch

Substitutes

39 · Luca Weinhandl

5 · A. Vallci

41 · E. Lorenz

30 · P. Koller

11 · A. Kayombo

22 · A. Helac

40 · J. Halwachs

14 · O. Diakité

25 · M. Grgic

38 · Jonas Peinhart

37 · J. Petritsch

Our number · bournemouth winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 12 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

76% The market82%

Us76%

~~Market~~82%

We make Bournemouth a 76% chance to win. The market has them at 82%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bournemouth v Sturm Graz~~2.47 – 0.69

~~Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D0 L0 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 1~~10 v 17

~~The market · Bournemouth win~~82% · ours 76%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bournemouth win The market, margin stripped

Published at 78%, 76% now. The market has gone from 80% to 82% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bournemouth win	76%	82%	−6
Draw	16%	12%	+4
Sturm Graz win	8%	6%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	61%	72%	−11
Both teams to score	46%	49%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	83%	86%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	39%	52%	−13
Bournemouth or draw	92%	94%	−2
Bournemouth clean sheet	50%	–	–
Sturm Graz clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.0%

0123450 4.5 2.7 1 10.3 7.5 2.5 2 13.0 8.9 3.1 3 10.7 7.3 2.5 4 6.6 4.5 5 3.2 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Bournemouth down, Sturm Graz across0–5 goals a side shown (96.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Bournemouth play in the English Premier League, Sturm Graz in the Austrian Bundesliga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Bournemouth are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

2.47 goals for Bournemouth, 0.69 for Sturm Graz. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 Sept

BOURNEMOUTH

W2–1

STURM GRAZ

D0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	1	+5	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	+4	3
3	Sparta Praha	1	+3	3
4	Beşiktaş	1	+3	3
5	Union St. Gilloise	1	+3	3
6	Ferencvarosi TC	1	+2	3
7	Benfica	1	+2	3
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	+2	3
9	OFI	1	+2	3
10	Bournemouth	1	+1	3
11	Lyon	1	+1	3
12	Torreense	1	+1	3
13	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	+1	3
14	Red Bull Salzburg	1	+1	3
15	Sunderland	1	+1	3
16	Omonia Nicosia	1	+1	3
17	Sturm Graz	1	0	1
18	Rennes	1	0	1
19	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0	1
20	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0	1
21	Jagiellonia	1	−1	0
22	Real Sociedad	1	−1	0
23	Anderlecht	1	−1	0
24	Lillestrom	1	−1	0
25	Celta Vigo	1	−1	0
26	AZ Alkmaar	1	−1	0
27	Levski Sofia	1	−1	0
28	Celtic	1	−2	0
29	1899 Hoffenheim	1	−2	0
30	AC Milan	1	−2	0
31	Celje	1	−2	0
32	Marseille	1	−3	0
33	Ararat-Armenia	1	−3	0
34	Plzen	1	−3	0
35	Lech Poznan	1	−4	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	−5	0