Bournemouth v AC Milan prediction · UEFA Europa League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 23:00

Bournemouth 3–0 AC Milan BOURNEMOUTH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bournemouth win~~52%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.344

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.402

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bournemouth win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bournemouth 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
1′KICK-OFF Bournemouth v AC Milan
7′We said Bournemouth at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–15–9
7′PENALTY · 6' Bournemouth
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Bournemouth 1–0 AC Milan
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Bournemouth win: 52% at kick-off, 76% now
9′Justin Kluivert scores for Bournemouth on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–15–9
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Bafode Diakite · Bournemouth
28′🟥 RED CARD · 28' AC Milan
30′AC Milan are down to ten from 27′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 77–16–7
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–7
31′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Tyler Adams · Bournemouth
32′We said Bournemouth at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Bournemouth 2–0 AC Milan
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Bournemouth win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
32′SUBSTITUTION · 32' AC Milan · On: Lorenzo Torriani · Off: Omari Hutchinson
34′32′: Marcus Tavernier on the scoresheet for Bournemouth, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Pervis Estupinan · AC Milan
43′We said Bournemouth at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
45′SECOND HALF Bournemouth 2–0 AC Milan
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' AC Milan · On: Davide Bartesaghi · Off: Pervis Estupinan
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' AC Milan · On: Adrien Rabiot · Off: Ruben Loftus-Cheek
50′HALF-TIME Bournemouth 2–0 AC Milan
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Bournemouth · On: Lewis Cook · Off: Tyler Adams
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Bournemouth · On: Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha · Off: Marcus Tavernier
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Bournemouth · On: Alex Tóth · Off: Justin Kluivert
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Fikayo Tomori · AC Milan
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Bournemouth · On: Álvaro Rodríguez · Off: Francisco Evanilson
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' AC Milan · On: Sankhoun Diawara · Off: Fikayo Tomori
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' AC Milan · On: Christian Comotto · Off: Diego Moreira
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Bournemouth · On: Amine Adli · Off: Alex Tóth
81′We said Bournemouth at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Koni De Winter · AC Milan
83′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Bournemouth 3–0 AC Milan
86′Bournemouth ahead on 84′ through Amine Adli. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Bournemouth 3–0 AC Milan
FTBournemouth 3–0 AC Milan · Bournemouth win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bournemouth are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bournemouth 52%, draw 24%, AC Milan 24%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Bournemouth v AC MilanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Bournemouth win52%

Draw24%

AC Milan win24%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueVitality Stadium

RefereeVassilis Fotias

Line-ups

Bournemouth

4-4-2

AC Milan

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bournemouth

AC Milan

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · the English Premier League

Last match: 18 Oct · the Italian Serie A

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Bournemouth	2	+4	6
16	AC Milan	2	+2	3

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Europa League line-ups: Bournemouth vs. MilanFootball Italia · 22 Oct 18:52 · Bournemouth, AC Milan Mayor of Bournemouth is a Milan supporter: ‘May the best team win’Football Italia · 22 Oct 17:05 · Bournemouth, AC Milan Europa League Liveblog: Juventus-Rennes, Bournemouth-Milan, Ajax-AtalantaFootball Italia · 22 Oct 16:34 · Juventus, Rennes, Bournemouth, AC Milan, Ajax, Atalanta Europa League: Bournemouth vs. Milan – probable line-ups, where to watch on TVFootball Italia · 22 Oct 09:30 · Bournemouth, AC Milan

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bournemouth

4-4-2

20 M. Di Gregorio

5 J. Hill

18 B. Diakité

14 António Silva

3 A. Truffert

11 B. Doak

10 R. Christie

12 T. Adams

16 M. Tavernier

19 J. Kluivert

9 Evanilson

Coach · M. Rose

Substitutes

55 · M. Allan

7 · D. Brooks

4 · L. Cook

21 · A. Adli

1 · Đ. Petrović

37 · Rayan

30 · Á. Rodríguez

15 · A. Smith

6 · J. Soler

27 · A. Tóth

AC Milan

3-4-2-1

16 M. Maignan

23 F. Tomori

5 K. De Winter

31 S. Pavlović

22 Diego Moreira

80 Y. Musah

30 A. Jashari

2 P. Estupiñán

20 O. Hutchinson

8 R. Loftus-Cheek

70 A. Cissè

Coach · Ruben Amorim

Substitutes

41 · L. P. Bouyer

73 · F. Camarda

28 · C. Comotto

13 · S. Bocoum

34 · Mario Gila

14 · L. Modrić

11 · C. Pulišić

12 · A. Rabiot

96 · L. Torriani

35 · V. Vladimirov

33 · D. Bartesaghi

Our number · bournemouth winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 22 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

52% The market48%

Us52%

~~Market~~48%

We make Bournemouth a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bournemouth v AC Milan~~1.76 – 1.12

~~Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 3~~5 v 16

~~The market · Bournemouth win~~48% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bournemouth win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bournemouth win	52%	48%	+4
Draw	24%	25%	−1
AC Milan win	24%	26%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	55%	56%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	78%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	35%	−2
Bournemouth or draw	76%	74%	+2
Bournemouth clean sheet	33%	–	–
AC Milan clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.0 5.9 3.5 1 9.5 11.4 6.2 2.3 2 8.7 9.7 5.4 2.0 3 5.1 5.7 3.2 4 2.3 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bournemouth down, AC Milan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Bournemouth play in the English Premier League, AC Milan in the Italian Serie A.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Bournemouth are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Bournemouth, 1.12 for AC Milan. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 Sept

BOURNEMOUTH

WW2–1 · 3–0

AC MILAN

LW0–2 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	2	+6	6
2	Bayer Leverkusen	2	+6	6
3	Benfica	2	+5	6
4	Beşiktaş	2	+4	6
5	Bournemouth	2	+4	6
6	Omonia Nicosia	2	+4	6
7	Ferencvarosi TC	2	+3	6
8	Lyon	2	+2	6
9	Sunderland	2	+2	6
10	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	+2	6
11	Sparta Praha	2	+3	4
12	Union St. Gilloise	2	+3	4
13	Rennes	2	+1	4
14	Dinamo Zagreb	2	+1	4
15	Crystal Palace	2	+3	3
16	AC Milan	2	+2	3
17	Jagiellonia	2	+1	3
18	OFI	2	+1	3
19	Torreense	2	0	3
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	0	3
21	Red Bull Salzburg	2	−3	3
22	Real Sociedad	2	−1	1
23	Lillestrom	2	−1	1
24	Levski Sofia	2	−1	1
25	Hapoel Beer Sheva	2	−1	1
26	Sturm Graz	2	−3	1
27	NEC Nijmegen	2	−5	1
28	Celta Vigo	2	−2	0
29	Anderlecht	2	−2	0
30	1899 Hoffenheim	2	−3	0
31	Plzen	2	−4	0
32	Marseille	2	−4	0
33	Celtic	2	−5	0
34	Ararat-Armenia	2	−5	0
35	Celje	2	−5	0
36	Lech Poznan	2	−8	0