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Beşiktaş v Crystal Palace

Beşiktaş

2–2Full time

Crystal Palace

UEFA Europa League · THU 22 OCT · Tüpraş Stadium

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 23:00

Beşiktaş 2–2 Crystal Palace CRYSTAL PALACE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Crystal Palace win~~52%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.880

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.839

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 39 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Crystal Palace win at 52%.
1′KICK-OFF Beşiktaş v Crystal Palace
2′Much as we predicted: Crystal Palace was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 23–26–51
5′We published Crystal Palace at 52%. Our model now makes it 77%. 0–1 · 8–15–77
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Beşiktaş 0–1 Crystal Palace
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Crystal Palace win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
6′Crystal Palace find the net on 6′. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–15–77
7′GOAL DISALLOWED · 7' Crystal Palace
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Crystal Palace win: 52% at kick-off, 51% now
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Wilfred Ndidi · Beşiktaş
40′SUBSTITUTION · 39' Beşiktaş · On: Salih Özcan · Off: Fabio Miretti
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Crystal Palace win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
45′We said Crystal Palace at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 21–39–40
45′SECOND HALF Beşiktaş 1–0 Crystal Palace
46′We said Crystal Palace at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 60–27–13
46′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 60–27–13
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Beşiktaş 1–0 Crystal Palace
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Crystal Palace win: 52% at kick-off, 13% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Beşiktaş win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Crystal Palace win 40%)
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Yeremy Pino · Crystal Palace
48′Beşiktaş ahead on 45′ through Wilfred Ndidi. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–27–14
48′HALF-TIME Beşiktaş 1–0 Crystal Palace
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Crystal Palace win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
50′We said Crystal Palace at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 20–42–38
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Beşiktaş 1–1 Crystal Palace
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Crystal Palace win: 52% at kick-off, 38% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Beşiktaş win 62%)
53′Yeremy Pino scores for Crystal Palace on 51′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 20–44–37
54′We published Crystal Palace at 52%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–2 · 4–16–81
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Beşiktaş 1–2 Crystal Palace
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Crystal Palace win: 52% at kick-off, 81% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Crystal Palace win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 44%)
56′55′: Jean-Philippe Mateta on the scoresheet for Crystal Palace, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 3–16–81
56′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 3–16–81
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Crystal Palace win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Crystal Palace · On: Ismaila Sarr · Off: Dwight McNeil
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Crystal Palace · On: Jörgen Strand Larsen · Off: Jean-Philippe Mateta
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Beşiktaş · On: Junior Olaitan · Off: Kartal Kayra Yılmaz
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Beşiktaş · On: Amir Murillo · Off: Taylan Bulut
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Umit Akdag · Beşiktaş
68′We published Crystal Palace at 52%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Crystal Palace · On: Dario Osorio · Off: Yeremy Pino
73′We said Crystal Palace at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 2–2 · 13–64–23
73′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 13–64–23
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Beşiktaş 2–2 Crystal Palace
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Crystal Palace win: 52% at kick-off, 23% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Crystal Palace win 87%)
74′Beşiktaş level it on 73′ through Junior Olaitan. 2–2. 2–2 · 13–66–22
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Crystal Palace win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
77′We said Crystal Palace at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 11–70–19
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Beşiktaş · On: Dušan Vlahović · Off: Oh Hyeon-gyu
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Beşiktaş · On: Václav Černý · Off: Ilhan Fakili
78′🟥 RED CARD · 78' Beşiktaş
80′A red card for Beşiktaş on 77′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–2 · 9–76–15
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Crystal Palace win: 52% at kick-off, 11% now
85′We said Crystal Palace at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 5–86–9
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Crystal Palace · On: Eddie Nketiah · Off: Jörgen Strand Larsen
91′We said Crystal Palace at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 3–93–4
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Crystal Palace win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Beşiktaş 2–2 Crystal Palace
FTBeşiktaş 2–2 Crystal Palace · Crystal Palace win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Crystal Palace are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Beşiktaş 23%, draw 25%, Crystal Palace 52%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Beşiktaş v Crystal PalaceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Beşiktaş win23%

Draw25%

Crystal Palace win52%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueTüpraş Stadium

RefereeDanny Makkelie

Line-ups

Beşiktaş

4-1-4-1

Crystal Palace

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Beşiktaş

Crystal Palace

3Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Oct · Süper Lig

Last match: 18 Oct · the English Premier League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Beşiktaş	2	+4	6
15	Crystal Palace	2	+3	3

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Four candidates to replace Pierre Sage at Crystal Palace amid manager sack threatEvening Standard · 21 Oct 09:51 · Crystal Palace Animal rights group asks Crystal Palace to retire eagle mascotBBC Sport · 21 Oct 08:24 · Crystal Palace

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Beşiktaş

4-1-4-1

1 A. Nübel

22 Taylan Bulut

35 Tiago Djaló

50 Ü. Akdağ

11 K. Ouattara

4 W. Ndidi

29 I. Fakili

21 F. Miretti

8 K. Yılmaz

19 L. Trossard

9 Oh Hyeon-Gyu

Coach · V. Italiano

Substitutes

80 · D. Alemdar

90 · S. Kılıçsoy

62 · A. Murillo

15 · J. Olaitan

17 · E. Poku

53 · E. Topçu

28 · D. Vlahović

33 · R. Yılmaz

58 · Y. Özcan

6 · S. Özcan

18 · V. Černý

12 · E. Agbadou

Crystal Palace

3-4-2-1

44 W. Benítez

26 C. Richards

5 A. Disasi

6 J. Canvot

25 A. Khalaili

20 A. Wharton

18 D. Kamada

3 T. Mitchell

11 D. McNeil

10 Yeremy Pino

14 J. Mateta

Coach · P. Sage

Substitutes

54 · D. Benamar

81 · Lucca Benetton

33 · B. Chilwell

19 · W. Hughes

22 · J. Strand Larsen

31 · R. Matthews

30 · Óscar Mingueza

9 · E. Nketiah

24 · D. Osorio

7 · I. Sarr

21 · H. Ahanor

37 · G. King

Our number · crystal palace winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 22 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

52% The market32%

Us52%

~~Market~~32%

We make Crystal Palace a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 20 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Beşiktaş v Crystal Palace~~1.02 – 1.65

~~Form · last six in UEFA Europa League this season · since 6 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 3~~4 v 15

~~The market · Crystal Palace win~~32% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Crystal Palace win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Beşiktaş win	23%	43%	−20
Draw	25%	25%	0
Crystal Palace win	52%	32%	+20
Over 2.5 goals	50%	63%	−13
Both teams to score	52%	65%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	75%	83%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	28%	43%	−15
Beşiktaş or draw	48%	68%	−20
Beşiktaş clean sheet	19%	–	–
Crystal Palace clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.3 11.1 9.5 5.2 2.2 1 6.7 12.0 9.6 5.3 2.2 2 3.6 5.9 4.9 2.7 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Beşiktaş down, Crystal Palace across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Beşiktaş play in Süper Lig, Crystal Palace in the English Premier League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Beşiktaş are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Beşiktaş, 1.65 for Crystal Palace. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in UEFA Europa League this season · since 6 Aug

BEŞIKTAŞ

WWWLWW1–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 3–2

CRYSTAL PALACE

WL4–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	2	+6	6
2	Bayer Leverkusen	2	+6	6
3	Benfica	2	+5	6
4	Beşiktaş	2	+4	6
5	Bournemouth	2	+4	6
6	Omonia Nicosia	2	+4	6
7	Ferencvarosi TC	2	+3	6
8	Lyon	2	+2	6
9	Sunderland	2	+2	6
10	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	+2	6
11	Sparta Praha	2	+3	4
12	Union St. Gilloise	2	+3	4
13	Rennes	2	+1	4
14	Dinamo Zagreb	2	+1	4
15	Crystal Palace	2	+3	3
16	AC Milan	2	+2	3
17	Jagiellonia	2	+1	3
18	OFI	2	+1	3
19	Torreense	2	0	3
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	0	3
21	Red Bull Salzburg	2	−3	3
22	Real Sociedad	2	−1	1
23	Lillestrom	2	−1	1
24	Levski Sofia	2	−1	1
25	Hapoel Beer Sheva	2	−1	1
26	Sturm Graz	2	−3	1
27	NEC Nijmegen	2	−5	1
28	Celta Vigo	2	−2	0
29	Anderlecht	2	−2	0
30	1899 Hoffenheim	2	−3	0
31	Plzen	2	−4	0
32	Marseille	2	−4	0
33	Celtic	2	−5	0
34	Ararat-Armenia	2	−5	0
35	Celje	2	−5	0
36	Lech Poznan	2	−8	0