Benfica v Celtic prediction · UEFA Europa League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 22:30

Benfica 4–1 Celtic BENFICA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Benfica win~~77%

~~The market said~~79%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.084

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.068

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Benfica win at 77%.
0′KICK-OFF Benfica v Celtic
2′Much as we predicted: Benfica was 77% before kick-off and our model makes it 76% now. 0–0 · 76–15–9
5′We published Benfica at 77%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–7–2
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Benfica 1–0 Celtic
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Benfica win: 77% at kick-off, 91% now
6′Benfica find the net on 5′. 1–0. 1–0 · 91–7–2
22′We published Benfica at 77%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Benfica 2–0 Celtic
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Benfica win: 77% at kick-off, 98% now
23′Alexander Bah scores for Benfica on 23′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
36′We published Benfica at 77%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Benfica 3–0 Celtic
37′36′: Jhon Durán on the scoresheet for Benfica, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Samuel Dahl · Benfica
45′HALF-TIME Benfica 3–0 Celtic
45′SECOND HALF Benfica 3–0 Celtic
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Celtic · On: Haissem Hassan · Off: Kasper Hogh
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Celtic · On: Callum Osmand · Off: Sebastian Tounekti
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Celtic · On: Benjamin Nygren · Off: Oliver Sorensen
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Celtic · On: Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain · Off: Mika Baur
63′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Benfica 3–1 Celtic
65′Celtic pull one back on 63′ through Camilo Duran. 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Benfica · On: Claudio Echeverri · Off: Heorhii Sudakov
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Benfica · On: Souffian El Karouani · Off: Samuel Dahl
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Benfica · On: Vangelis Pavlidis · Off: Jhon Durán
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Benfica · On: Andreas Schjelderup · Off: Dodi Lukebakio
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Alexander Bah · Benfica
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Celtic · On: Jordan Lotomba · Off: Colby Donovan
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Benfica · On: Alessandro Circati · Off: Alexander Bah
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' João Palhinha · Benfica
89′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Benfica 4–1 Celtic
91′Vangelis Pavlidis scores for Benfica on 89′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
92′Full time, 4–1. We called Benfica at 77% — that one lands. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Benfica 4–1 Celtic
FTBenfica 4–1 Celtic · Benfica win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Benfica are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Benfica 77%, draw 15%, Celtic 9%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Benfica v CelticBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Benfica win77%

Draw15%

Celtic win9%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueEstádio da Luz

RefereeNikola Dabanovic

Line-ups

Benfica

4-2-3-1

Celtic

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Benfica

Celtic

4Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · Primeira Liga

Last match: 11 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Benfica	1	+2	3
28	Celtic	1	−2	0

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Billy Sharp reveals Celtic transfer situation he faced at Sheffield UnitedFootball League World · 15 Oct 19:00 · Celtic, Sheffield Utd

Bournemouth v Sturm Graz, Benfica v Celtic, and more: Europa League – liveThe Guardian · 15 Oct 18:33 · Bournemouth, Sturm Graz, Benfica, Celtic

What TV channel is Benfica vs Celtic on? Live streaming, how to watch and kick-off timeMirror Football · 15 Oct 17:00 · Benfica, Celtic

Listen: Will Celtic bounce back in Lisbon - and how will Hearts start?BBC Sport · 15 Oct 08:00 · Celtic

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Benfica

4-2-3-1

1 A. Trubin

6 A. Bah

44 Tomás Araújo

2 C. Lenglet

26 S. Dahl

8 F. Aursnes

36 João Palhinha

11 D. Lukebakio

10 H. Sudakov

25 G. Prestianni

22 J. Durán

Coach · Marco Silva

Substitutes

18 · L. Barreiro

72 · A. Cabral

3 · A. Circati

30 · C. Echeverri

34 · S. El Karouani

88 · Tiago Freitas

33 · Gabriel Indio

16 · Manu

14 · V. Pavlidis

27 · Rafa

21 · A. Schjelderup

24 · Samuel Soares

Celtic

4-2-3-1

1 V. Sinisalo

51 Colby Donovan

47 D. Murray

6 A. Trusty

63 K. Tierney

42 C. McGregor

22 M. Baur

11 C. Durán

18 O. Sørensen

17 S. Tounekti

9 K. Høgh

Coach · M. O'Neill

Substitutes

49 · J. Forrest

23 · H. Hassan

26 · S. Johnstone

65 · Liam Kennedy

3 · J. Lotomba

14 · L. McCowan

8 · B. Nygren

21 · A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

56 · A. Ralston

5 · L. Scales

62 · L. Clearie

19 · C. Osmand

Our number · benfica winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 05:04 · locked at kick-off

77% The market79%

Us77%

~~Market~~79%

We make Benfica a 77% chance to win. The market has them at 79%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.6–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Benfica v Celtic~~2.64 – 0.79

~~Form · last six in UEFA Europa League this season · since 30 July~~W5 D1 L0 · W0 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 0~~7 v 28

~~The market · Benfica win~~79% · ours 77%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Benfica win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 75% to 79% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Benfica win	77%	79%	−2
Draw	15%	13%	+2
Celtic win	9%	8%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	67%	71%	−4
Both teams to score	51%	53%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	86%	86%	0
Over 3.5 goals	45%	52%	−7
Benfica or draw	91%	92%	−1
Benfica clean sheet	45%	–	–
Celtic clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.3%

0123450 3.4 2.3 1 8.3 7.0 2.7 2 11.3 8.9 3.5 3 9.9 7.9 3.1 4 6.6 5.2 2.1 5 3.5 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Benfica down, Celtic across0–5 goals a side shown (94.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Benfica play in Primeira Liga, Celtic in the Scottish Premiership.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Benfica are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

2.64 goals for Benfica, 0.79 for Celtic. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in UEFA Europa League this season · since 30 July

BENFICA

WWDWWW5–0 · 6–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 2–0

CELTIC

L1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	1	+5	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	+4	3
3	Sparta Praha	1	+3	3
4	Beşiktaş	1	+3	3
5	Union St. Gilloise	1	+3	3
6	Ferencvarosi TC	1	+2	3
7	Benfica	1	+2	3
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	+2	3
9	OFI	1	+2	3
10	Bournemouth	1	+1	3
11	Lyon	1	+1	3
12	Torreense	1	+1	3
13	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	+1	3
14	Red Bull Salzburg	1	+1	3
15	Sunderland	1	+1	3
16	Omonia Nicosia	1	+1	3
17	Sturm Graz	1	0	1
18	Rennes	1	0	1
19	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0	1
20	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0	1
21	Jagiellonia	1	−1	0
22	Real Sociedad	1	−1	0
23	Anderlecht	1	−1	0
24	Lillestrom	1	−1	0
25	Celta Vigo	1	−1	0
26	AZ Alkmaar	1	−1	0
27	Levski Sofia	1	−1	0
28	Celtic	1	−2	0
29	1899 Hoffenheim	1	−2	0
30	AC Milan	1	−2	0
31	Celje	1	−2	0
32	Marseille	1	−3	0
33	Ararat-Armenia	1	−3	0
34	Plzen	1	−3	0
35	Lech Poznan	1	−4	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	−5	0