AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Beer Sheva

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said AZ Alkmaar win at 58%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: AZ Alkmaar was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–22–19
3. 1′KICK-OFF AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Beer Sheva
4. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' AZ Alkmaar win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
5. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Pedro Miguel Santos Amador · Hapoel Beer Sheva
6. 43′We said AZ Alkmaar at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 46%. 0–0 · 46–35–19
7. 44′AZ Alkmaar have had 8 attempts to 0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 46–35–19
8. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Seiya Maikuma · AZ Alkmaar
9. 45′HALF-TIME AZ Alkmaar 0–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva
10. 46′SECOND HALF AZ Alkmaar 0–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva
11. 48′We said AZ Alkmaar at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–37–18
12. 49′We published AZ Alkmaar at 58%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–15–4
13. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' AZ Alkmaar 1–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva
14. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' AZ Alkmaar win: 58% at kick-off, 82% now
15. 50′AZ Alkmaar ahead on 49′ through Peer Koopmeiners. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–15–4
16. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Eilel Peretz · Hapoel Beer Sheva
17. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Ayoub Oufkir · AZ Alkmaar
18. 54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Hapoel Beer Sheva · On: Miguel Vitor · Off: Idan Nachmias
19. 55′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–1 · 40–42–18
20. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Hapoel Beer Sheva
21. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' AZ Alkmaar win: 58% at kick-off, 40% now
22. 56′Forson Amankwah scores for Hapoel Beer Sheva on 55′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 40–43–17
23. 57′We said AZ Alkmaar at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–44–17
24. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was AZ Alkmaar win 39%)
25. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' AZ Alkmaar win: 58% at kick-off, 38% now
26. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' AZ Alkmaar · On: Denso Kasius · Off: Seiya Maikuma
27. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' AZ Alkmaar · On: Calvin Stengs · Off: Ayoub Oufkir
28. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Hapoel Beer Sheva · On: Niv·Yehoshua · Off: Eilel Peretz
29. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Hapoel Beer Sheva · On: Javon East · Off: Mohamad Abu Rumi
30. 64′We said AZ Alkmaar at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–50–16
31. 67′AZ Alkmaar have had 12 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 32–53–15
32. 70′We said AZ Alkmaar at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–57–14
33. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' AZ Alkmaar win: 58% at kick-off, 28% now
34. 75′We said AZ Alkmaar at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–65–12
35. 77′We published AZ Alkmaar at 58%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
36. 77′77′: Mexx Meerdink on the scoresheet for AZ Alkmaar, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 90–10–1
37. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Djibril diop · Hapoel Beer Sheva
38. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' AZ Alkmaar · On: Mexx Meerdink · Off: Bendegúz Kovács
39. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' AZ Alkmaar · On: Mateo Chávez · Off: Mees de Wit
40. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Hapoel Beer Sheva
41. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' AZ Alkmaar win: 58% at kick-off, 90% now
42. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' AZ Alkmaar win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 10%)
43. 79′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 91–9–1
44. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Calvin Stengs · AZ Alkmaar
45. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Hapoel Beer Sheva · On: João Victor · Off: zahi ahmed
46. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Hapoel Beer Sheva · On: Adrián Ugarriza · Off: Igor Zlatanović
47. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Denso Kasius · AZ Alkmaar
48. 85′We published AZ Alkmaar at 58%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
49. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' AZ Alkmaar · On: Weslley Pinto Batista · Off: Ro Zangelo Daal
50. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Adrián Ugarriza · Hapoel Beer Sheva
51. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' AZ Alkmaar win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
52. FTFULL TIME AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Hapoel Beer Sheva
53. FTAZ Alkmaar 2–1 Hapoel Beer Sheva · AZ Alkmaar win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.