Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar prediction · UEFA Europa League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 20:28

Ararat-Armenia 0–4 AZ Alkmaar AZ ALKMAAR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AZ Alkmaar win~~67%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.165

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.150

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AZ Alkmaar win at 67%.
1′Little has changed for our model: AZ Alkmaar 67% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 13–20–67
1′KICK-OFF Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar
21′We said AZ Alkmaar at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 0–1 · 4–10–86
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Ararat-Armenia 0–1 AZ Alkmaar
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' AZ Alkmaar win: 67% at kick-off, 86% now
22′21′: Valdemar Byskov Andreasen on the scoresheet for AZ Alkmaar, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 4–11–86
24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Bruno Wilson · Ararat-Armenia
26′We said AZ Alkmaar at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–2 · 1–3–97
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Ararat-Armenia 0–2 AZ Alkmaar
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' AZ Alkmaar win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
28′AZ Alkmaar ahead on 27′ through Weslley Pinto Batista. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–3–97
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Armen Ambartsumyan · Ararat-Armenia
45′SECOND HALF Ararat-Armenia 0–2 AZ Alkmaar
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' AZ Alkmaar · On: Ro Zangelo Daal · Off: Ayoub Oufkir
47′HALF-TIME Ararat-Armenia 0–2 AZ Alkmaar
49′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–2 · 0–2–98
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Ararat-Armenia · On: Karen Muradyan · Off: Armen Ambartsumyan
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' AZ Alkmaar · On: Mexx Meerdink · Off: Bendegúz Kovács
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' AZ Alkmaar · On: Denso Kasius · Off: Seiya Maikuma
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Ararat-Armenia · On: Bernardo Oliveira · Off: Juan Andres Balanta
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Ararat-Armenia · On: Arayik Eloyan · Off: Sandro Lima
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Ararat-Armenia · On: Carlos Henrique França Freires · Off: Zhirayr Shaghoyan
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Ararat-Armenia · On: Bruno Pereira · Off: Edgar·Grigoryan
76′We said AZ Alkmaar at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
76′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Ararat-Armenia 0–3 AZ Alkmaar
77′Weslley Pinto Batista scores for AZ Alkmaar on 76′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
78′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Ararat-Armenia 0–4 AZ Alkmaar
81′79′: Mexx Meerdink on the scoresheet for AZ Alkmaar, making it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' AZ Alkmaar · On: Rion Ichihara · Off: Wesley Hoedt
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' AZ Alkmaar · On: Hessel de Wit · Off: Valdemar Byskov Andreasen
92′0–4 at the end. Our 67% on AZ Alkmaar comes in. 0–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Ararat-Armenia 0–4 AZ Alkmaar
FTArarat-Armenia 0–4 AZ Alkmaar · AZ Alkmaar win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AZ Alkmaar are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ararat-Armenia 13%, draw 20%, AZ Alkmaar 67%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Ararat-Armenia v AZ AlkmaarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Ararat-Armenia win13%

Draw20%

AZ Alkmaar win67%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueVazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium

RefereePatrik Kolaric

Line-ups

Ararat-Armenia

4-2-3-1

AZ Alkmaar

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ararat-Armenia

AZ Alkmaar

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)

Last match: 18 Oct · Eredivisie

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	0	3
34	Ararat-Armenia	2	−5	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ararat-Armenia

4-2-3-1

98 João Bravim

2 Hugo Oliveira

43 Bruno Wilson

47 A. Malis

16 E. Grigoryan

8 J. Balanta

17 M. Carlier

77 A. Serobyan

10 A. Ambartsumyan

7 Z. Shaghoyan

91 Sandro Lima

Coach · Tulipa

Substitutes

25 · A. Ndour

9 · A. Eloyan

5 · Luís Felipe

14 · Bruno Pereira

19 · K. Muradyan

1 · A. Nersesyan

70 · B. Oliveira

95 · França

AZ Alkmaar

4-3-3

28 J. De Busser

2 S. Maikuma

4 L. Schouten

29 W. Hoedt

34 M. de Wit

6 P. Koopmeiners

17 V. Byskov

21 D. Kwakman

7 Weslley Patati

18 B. Kovacs

24 A. Oufkir

Coach · L. Echteld

Substitutes

75 · H. de Wit

14 · C. Stengs

12 · H. Verhulst

1 · R. Owusu-Oduro

9 · M. Meerdink

30 · D. Kasius

31 · R. Ichihara

22 · E. Dijkstra

11 · R. Daal

5 · M. Chávez

27 · Wassim bouziane

54 · Jerolldino Bergraaf

Our number · az alkmaar winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

67% The market69%

Us67%

~~Market~~69%

We make AZ Alkmaar a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 0.8–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar~~0.84 – 2.14

~~Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 20 Aug~~W1 D1 L2 · W1 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~34 v 20

~~The market · AZ Alkmaar win~~69% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AZ Alkmaar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ararat-Armenia win	13%	13%	0
Draw	20%	19%	+1
AZ Alkmaar win	67%	69%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	57%	63%	−6
Both teams to score	50%	55%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	80%	83%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	35%	42%	−7
Ararat-Armenia or draw	33%	31%	+2
Ararat-Armenia clean sheet	12%	–	–
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.7%

0123450 5.4 10.6 11.7 8.3 4.5 1 4.0 9.4 9.8 7.0 3.7 2 3.8 4.1 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ararat-Armenia down, AZ Alkmaar across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Ararat-Armenia play in Premier League (Armenia), AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Ararat-Armenia are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

0.84 goals for Ararat-Armenia, 2.14 for AZ Alkmaar. Most likely score 0–2.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 17:15. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 20 Aug

ARARAT-ARMENIA

DWLL1–1 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 1–3

AZ ALKMAAR

LW0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	2	+6	6
2	Bayer Leverkusen	2	+6	6
3	Benfica	2	+5	6
4	Beşiktaş	2	+4	6
5	Bournemouth	2	+4	6
6	Omonia Nicosia	2	+4	6
7	Ferencvarosi TC	2	+3	6
8	Lyon	2	+2	6
9	Sunderland	2	+2	6
10	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	+2	6
11	Sparta Praha	2	+3	4
12	Union St. Gilloise	2	+3	4
13	Rennes	2	+1	4
14	Dinamo Zagreb	2	+1	4
15	Crystal Palace	2	+3	3
16	AC Milan	2	+2	3
17	Jagiellonia	2	+1	3
18	OFI	2	+1	3
19	Torreense	2	0	3
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	0	3
21	Red Bull Salzburg	2	−3	3
22	Real Sociedad	2	−1	1
23	Lillestrom	2	−1	1
24	Levski Sofia	2	−1	1
25	Hapoel Beer Sheva	2	−1	1
26	Sturm Graz	2	−3	1
27	NEC Nijmegen	2	−5	1
28	Celta Vigo	2	−2	0
29	Anderlecht	2	−2	0
30	1899 Hoffenheim	2	−3	0
31	Plzen	2	−4	0
32	Marseille	2	−4	0
33	Celtic	2	−5	0
34	Ararat-Armenia	2	−5	0
35	Celje	2	−5	0
36	Lech Poznan	2	−8	0