1899 Hoffenheim v Lyon prediction · UEFA Europa League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 23:00

1899 Hoffenheim 3–0 Lyon LYON WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lyon win~~45%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.716

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.442

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lyon win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lyon 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 32–23–45
1′KICK-OFF 1899 Hoffenheim v Lyon
10′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Mats Rots · 1899 Hoffenheim
32′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Lyon · On: Noham Kamara · Off: Steeve Kango
45′SECOND HALF 1899 Hoffenheim 1–0 Lyon
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Lyon · On: Moussa Niakhaté · Off: Felix Bacher
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Lyon · On: Tyler Morton · Off: Tanner Tessmann
48′We said Lyon at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 1–0 · 64–24–12
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' 1899 Hoffenheim 1–0 Lyon
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Lyon win: 45% at kick-off, 12% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' 1899 Hoffenheim win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Lyon win 36%)
49′1899 Hoffenheim ahead on 45′ through Andrej Kramarić. 1–0. 1–0 · 64–24–12
49′We said Lyon at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 2–0 · 88–9–3
49′Adam Daghim scores for 1899 Hoffenheim on 49′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 88–9–3
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' 1899 Hoffenheim 2–0 Lyon
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Lyon win: 45% at kick-off, 3% now
50′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 2–0 · 88–9–3
53′HALF-TIME 1899 Hoffenheim 1–0 Lyon
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lyon · On: Corentin Tolisso · Off: Mads Bidstrup
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' 1899 Hoffenheim · On: Wouter Burger · Off: Adam Daghim
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' 1899 Hoffenheim · On: Valentin Gendrey · Off: Vladimír Coufal
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' 1899 Hoffenheim · On: Adam Hložek · Off: Bambasé Conté
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Wouter Burger · 1899 Hoffenheim
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lyon · On: Ernest Nuamah · Off: Kail Boudache
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' 1899 Hoffenheim · On: Koki Machida · Off: Mats Rots
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' 1899 Hoffenheim · On: Fisnik Asllani · Off: Tim Lemperle
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Ozan Kabak · 1899 Hoffenheim
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' 1899 Hoffenheim 3–0 Lyon
84′83′: Adam Hložek on the scoresheet for 1899 Hoffenheim, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
84′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Christian Ilzer · 1899 Hoffenheim
92′3–0 at the end. Our 45% on Lyon misses, and the record keeps it. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME 1899 Hoffenheim 3–0 Lyon
FT1899 Hoffenheim 3–0 Lyon · Lyon win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lyon are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: 1899 Hoffenheim 32%, draw 23%, Lyon 45%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on 1899 Hoffenheim v LyonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

1899 Hoffenheim win32%

Draw23%

Lyon win45%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenuePrezero Arena

RefereeHalil Umut Meler

Line-ups

1899 Hoffenheim

4-4-2

Lyon

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

1899 Hoffenheim

Lyon

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · the German Bundesliga

Last match: 18 Oct · the French Ligue 1

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Lyon	2	+2	6
30	1899 Hoffenheim	2	−3	0

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Zachary Athekame to see out Lyon loan, despite AC Milan’s recall interestGet French Football News · 22 Oct 11:37 · Lyon, AC Milan Lyon predicted XI v Hoffenheim: Rémi Himbert brought back inGet French Football News · 22 Oct 09:35 · Lyon

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

1899 Hoffenheim

4-4-2

1 O. Baumann

34 V. Coufal

2 R. Hranáč

5 O. Kabak

39 M. Rots

20 B. Conté

7 L. Avdullahu

22 A. Prass

14 A. Daghim

19 T. Lemperle

27 A. Kramarić

Coach · C. Ilzer

Substitutes

11 · F. Asllani

29 · Natnael Abraha

13 · Bernardo

18 · W. Burger

15 · V. Gendrey

10 · A. Hložek

47 · V. Lässig

32 · Cajetan Benjamin Lenz

28 · K. Machida

9 · Max Moerstedt

36 · L. Petersson

37 · L. Philipp

Lyon

4-3-3

1 D. Greif

37 Steeve Kango

20 F. Bacher

22 Clinton Mata

21 R. Kluivert

99 N. Nartey

6 T. Tessmann

2 M. Bidstrup

26 K. Boudache

45 R. Himbert

11 Keito Nakamura

Coach · Paulo Fonseca

Substitutes

13 · Z. Athekame

8 · C. Tolisso

7 · E. Nuamah

19 · M. Niakhaté

23 · T. Morton

18 · K. Merah

85 · N. Kamara

24 · J. Duranville

40 · R. Descamps

16 · Abner

25 · J. Bengui João

38 · Angel Daniel Garcia

Our number · lyon winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 20 Oct 04:07 · locked at kick-off

45% The market30%

Us45%

~~Market~~30%

We make Lyon a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · 1899 Hoffenheim v Lyon~~1.52 – 1.83

~~Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 Sept~~W0 D0 L2 · W2 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 6~~30 v 8

~~The market · Lyon win~~30% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lyon win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
1899 Hoffenheim win	32%	46%	−14
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Lyon win	45%	30%	+15
Over 2.5 goals	65%	65%	0
Both teams to score	66%	66%	0
Over 1.5 goals	85%	84%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	43%	45%	−2
1899 Hoffenheim or draw	55%	70%	−15
1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet	16%	–	–
Lyon clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 3.8 6.1 5.9 3.6 1 5.0 10.1 8.9 5.4 2.5 2 4.1 7.4 6.8 4.1 3 2.1 3.8 3.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+1899 Hoffenheim down, Lyon across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

1899 Hoffenheim play in the German Bundesliga, Lyon in the French Ligue 1.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: 1899 Hoffenheim are at home.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

1.52 goals for 1899 Hoffenheim, 1.83 for Lyon. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~HOF 2–2 LYO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa League this season · since 16 Sept

1899 HOFFENHEIM

LL0–2 · 2–3

LYON

WW2–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Juventus	2	+6	6
2	Bayer Leverkusen	2	+6	6
3	Benfica	2	+5	6
4	Beşiktaş	2	+4	6
5	Bournemouth	2	+4	6
6	Omonia Nicosia	2	+4	6
7	Ferencvarosi TC	2	+3	6
8	Lyon	2	+2	6
9	Sunderland	2	+2	6
10	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	+2	6
11	Sparta Praha	2	+3	4
12	Union St. Gilloise	2	+3	4
13	Rennes	2	+1	4
14	Dinamo Zagreb	2	+1	4
15	Crystal Palace	2	+3	3
16	AC Milan	2	+2	3
17	Jagiellonia	2	+1	3
18	OFI	2	+1	3
19	Torreense	2	0	3
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	0	3
21	Red Bull Salzburg	2	−3	3
22	Real Sociedad	2	−1	1
23	Lillestrom	2	−1	1
24	Levski Sofia	2	−1	1
25	Hapoel Beer Sheva	2	−1	1
26	Sturm Graz	2	−3	1
27	NEC Nijmegen	2	−5	1
28	Celta Vigo	2	−2	0
29	Anderlecht	2	−2	0
30	1899 Hoffenheim	2	−3	0
31	Plzen	2	−4	0
32	Marseille	2	−4	0
33	Celtic	2	−5	0
34	Ararat-Armenia	2	−5	0
35	Celje	2	−5	0
36	Lech Poznan	2	−8	0