Universitatea Craiova v Getafe prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 20:30

Universitatea Craiova 1–1 Getafe GETAFE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Getafe win~~41%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.696

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.713

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Getafe win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Getafe was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 26–32–42
1′KICK-OFF Universitatea Craiova v Getafe
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' O. Romanchuk · Universitatea Craiova
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Getafe win 36%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Getafe win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
45′HALF-TIME Universitatea Craiova 0–0 Getafe
45′SECOND HALF Universitatea Craiova 0–0 Getafe
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Getafe · On: Kiko Femenia · Off: A. Garcia
49′We said Getafe at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 20–51–29
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' J. Lameira · Universitatea Craiova
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' A. Cicaldau · Universitatea Craiova
58′We said Getafe at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Universitatea Craiova 1–0 Getafe
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Getafe win: 41% at kick-off, 4% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Universitatea Craiova win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 21%)
59′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 75–21–4
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' F. Coelho · Universitatea Craiova
60′59′: A. Al Hamlawi on the scoresheet for Universitatea Craiova, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–20–4
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Getafe · On: J. Mojica · Off: Davinchi
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Getafe · On: A. R. Alcantara · Off: M. Martin Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Universitatea Craiova · On: D. Matei · Off: S. Baiaram
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' J. Mojica · Getafe
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Getafe win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Universitatea Craiova · On: S. Elisor · Off: A. Al Hamlawi
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Universitatea Craiova · On: A. Cretu · Off: J. Lameira
81′Getafe find the net on 81′. 1–1. 1–1 · 7–84–9
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Universitatea Craiova 1–1 Getafe
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Getafe win: 41% at kick-off, 9% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Universitatea Craiova win 7%)
83′We said Getafe at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 6–87–8
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Getafe · On: S. Boselli · Off: R. Terrats
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Universitatea Craiova · On: L. Basceanu · Off: A. Cicaldau
90′Full time, 1–1. We called Getafe at 41% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Universitatea Craiova 1–1 Getafe
FTUniversitatea Craiova 1–1 Getafe · Getafe win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Getafe are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Universitatea Craiova 26%, draw 32%, Getafe 41%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Universitatea Craiova v GetafeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Universitatea Craiova win26%

Draw32%

Getafe win41%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 1

VenueStadionul Ion Oblemenco

RefereeD. Smajc

Line-ups

Universitatea Craiova

3-4-3

Getafe

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Universitatea Craiova

Getafe

4Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga I

Last match: 10 Oct · La Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Getafe	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Getafe make offer to sign free agent SanchoBBC Sport · 15 Oct 12:45 · Getafe

Former Real Madrid captain Carvajal joins GetafeBBC Sport · 13 Oct 10:21 · Real Madrid, Getafe

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Universitatea Craiova

3-4-3

21 L. Popescu

3 O. Romanchuk

24 N. Stevanovic

6 V. Screciu

23 Teles

16 J. Lameira

8 T. Baluta

11 N. Bancu

20 A. Cicaldau

9 A. Al Hamlawi

10 S. Baiaram

Coach · Filipe Coelho

Substitutes

90 · R. Sava

1 · A. Maxim

31 · R. Webster

5 · B. Roux

4 · A. Cretu

29 · L. Basceanu

30 · D. Matei

19 · Heriberto Tavares

7 · S. Nsimba

22 · S. Elisor

Getafe

4-2-3-1

13 D. Soria

21 A. Garcia

2 Djene

26 J. Valou

3 Davinchi

8 N. Gudelj

16 Francho

11 R. Terrats

6 M. Martin

10 M. Satriano

9 B. Mayoral

Coach · Jose Bordalas Jimenez

Substitutes

1 · J. Letacek

35 · D. Ferrer

17 · Kiko Femenia

5 · A. Abqar

22 · J. Mojica

4 · S. Sazonov

15 · S. Boselli

28 · A. Risco

Our number · getafe winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 13 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

41% The market36%

Us41%

~~Market~~36%

We make Getafe a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Universitatea Craiova v Getafe~~0.79 – 1.08

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~33 v 11

~~The market · Getafe win~~36% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Getafe win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. The market has gone from 40% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Universitatea Craiova win	26%	32%	−6
Draw	32%	31%	+1
Getafe win	41%	36%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	29%	38%	−9
Both teams to score	37%	46%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	56%	63%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	12%	20%	−8
Universitatea Craiova or draw	59%	64%	−5
Universitatea Craiova clean sheet	34%	–	–
Getafe clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 16.2%

0123450 15.8 16.2 9.0 3.2 1 11.8 13.6 7.1 2.6 2 4.8 5.2 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Universitatea Craiova down, Getafe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Universitatea Craiova play in Liga I, Getafe in La Liga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Universitatea Craiova are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

0.79 goals for Universitatea Craiova, 1.08 for Getafe. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 20 Aug

UNIVERSITATEA CRAIOVA

No matches in our record yet.

GETAFE

WL3–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0