Twente v FC Thun prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 22:30

Twente 1–0 FC Thun TWENTE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Twente win~~70%

~~The market said~~80%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.134

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.064

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Twente win at 70%.
1′Much as we predicted: Twente was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–16–13
1′KICK-OFF Twente v FC Thun
24′Twente find the net on 24′. 0–0 · 64–21–15
24′We published Twente at 70%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–10–4
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Twente 1–0 FC Thun
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Twente win: 70% at kick-off, 85% now
26′GOAL DISALLOWED · 26' Twente
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Twente win: 70% at kick-off, 63% now
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' F. Fehr · FC Thun
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Twente win: 70% at kick-off, 60% now
40′We said Twente at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 58%. 0–0 · 58–27–15
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' A. Adelgaard · Twente
45′HALF-TIME Twente 0–0 FC Thun
45′SECOND HALF Twente 0–0 FC Thun
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Thun · On: N. Zoukit · Off: J. Bamert
48′We said Twente at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–30–15
50′Twente have had 10 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 53–32–15
55′We expected about 3.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 50–35–15
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Twente win: 70% at kick-off, 50% now
57′We said Twente at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–36–15
59′🟥 RED CARD · 59' Twente
59′🟨 YELLOW · 57' R. Zerrouki · Twente
60′🟥 RED CARD · 60' FC Thun
61′A red card for FC Thun on 61′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 46–40–15
62′13 shots for Twente, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 45–41–14
63′We said Twente at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–42–14
66′Twente ahead on 65′ through R. Zerrouki. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–12–2
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Twente 1–0 FC Thun · R. Zerrouki
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Twente win: 70% at kick-off, 86% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC Thun · On: N. Maier · Off: F. Dursun Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FC Thun · On: L. Passavant · Off: N. Reichmuth
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Twente · On: M. Pjaca · Off: D. Rots Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Twente · On: K. Hlynsson · Off: Y. Taha Corrected
77′We published Twente at 70%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Twente win: 70% at kick-off, 90% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Twente · On: F. Thorvaldsen · Off: S. Orjasaeter
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Thun · On: R. Braschi · Off: O. Mambwa Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Thun · On: R. Braschi · Off: B. Labeau
85′We published Twente at 70%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Twente · On: T. van den Belt · Off: D. Weidmann
FTFULL TIME Twente 1–0 FC Thun
FTTwente 1–0 FC Thun · Twente win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Twente are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Twente 70%, draw 17%, FC Thun 13%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Twente v FC ThunBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Twente win70%

Draw17%

FC Thun win13%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 1

VenueDe Grolsch Veste

RefereeG. Nuza

Line-ups

Twente

4-2-3-1

FC Thun

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Twente

FC Thun

5Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Eredivisie

Last match: 10 Oct · the Swiss Super League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Twente	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Twente

4-2-3-1

16 J. Drommel

28 B. van Rooij

3 R. Propper

4 R. Nijstad

29 A. Adelgaard

6 R. Zerrouki

8 D. Weidmann

11 D. Rots

10 Y. Taha

27 S. Orjasaeter

9 W. Weghorst

Coach · John van den Brom

Substitutes

31 · Y. Gerritsen

22 · R. Pasveer

24 · K. Kurowski

39 · J. Meilink

14 · K. Hlynsson

2 · M. Rosiak

26 · B. Nagel

20 · T. van den Belt

18 · J. Bawuah

7 · M. Pjaca

17 · F. Thorvaldsen

25 · L. Vennegoor of Hesselink

FC Thun

4-4-2

1 N. Steffen

47 F. Fehr

5 N. Burgy

19 J. Bamert

2 O. Mambwa

70 N. Reichmuth

16 J. Roth

14 M. Kait

15 P. Kristal

96 B. Labeau

9 F. Dursun

Coach · Luca Privitelli Gian

Substitutes

25 · T. Spycher

22 · D. Walti

54 · L. Passavant

37 · L. Dahler

18 · T. Strannegard

13 · N. Zoukit

21 · D. Derbaci

80 · S. Lengen

30 · N. Maier

26 · N. Christoffersson

20 · R. Braschi

Our number · twente winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

70% The market80%

Us70%

~~Market~~80%

We make Twente a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 80%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Twente v FC Thun~~2.63 – 1.09

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~10 v 26

~~The market · Twente win~~80% · ours 70%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Twente win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 77% to 80% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Twente win	70%	80%	−10
Draw	17%	12%	+5
FC Thun win	13%	8%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	72%	76%	−4
Both teams to score	62%	58%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	89%	89%	0
Over 3.5 goals	51%	58%	−7
Twente or draw	87%	92%	−5
Twente clean sheet	34%	–	–
FC Thun clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 2.7 2.4 1 6.2 7.2 3.8 2 8.4 9.1 5.0 3 7.4 8.0 4.4 4 4.9 5.3 2.9 5 2.6 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Twente down, FC Thun across0–5 goals a side shown (94.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Twente play in Eredivisie, FC Thun in the Swiss Super League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Twente are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

2.63 goals for Twente, 1.09 for FC Thun. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 6 Aug

TWENTE

WDLW6–0 · 3–3 · 0–1 · 2–1

FC THUN

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0